Journal: Lancet

Sorted by: date / impact
Abstract

Four versus six cycles of CHOP chemotherapy in combination with six applications of rituximab in patients with aggressive B-cell lymphoma with favourable prognosis (FLYER): a randomised, phase 3, non-inferiority trial.

Poeschel V, Held G, Ziepert M, Witzens-Harig M, ... ,
Background
Six cycles of R-CHOP (rituximab plus cyclophosphamide, doxorubicin, vincristine, and prednisone) are the standard treatment for aggressive B-cell non-Hodgkin lymphoma. In the FLYER trial, we assessed whether four cycles of CHOP plus six applications of rituximab are non-inferior to six cycles of R-CHOP in a population of patients with B-cell non-Hodgkin lymphoma with favourable prognosis.
Methods
This two-arm, open-label, international, multicentre, prospective, randomised phase 3 non-inferiority trial was done at 138 clinical sites in Denmark, Israel, Italy, Norway, and Germany. We enrolled patients aged 18-60 years, with stage I-II disease, normal serum lactate dehydrogenase concentration, ECOG performance status 0-1, and without bulky disease (maximal tumour diameter <7·5 cm). Randomisation was computer-based and done centrally in a 1:1 ratio using the Pocock minimisation algorithm after stratification for centres, stage (I vs II), and extralymphatic sites (no vs yes). Patients were assigned to receive either six cycles of R-CHOP or four cycles of R-CHOP plus two doses of rituximab. CHOP comprised cyclophosphamide (750 mg/m), doxorubicin (50 mg/m), and vincristine (1·4 mg/m, with a maximum total dose of 2 mg), all administered intravenously on day 1, plus oral prednisone or prednisolone at the discretion of the investigator (100 mg) administered on days 1-5. Rituximab was given at a dose of 375 mg/m of body surface area. Cycles were repeated every 21 days. No radiotherapy was planned except for testicular lymphoma treatment. The primary endpoint was progression-free survival after 3 years. The primary analysis was done in the intention-to-treat population. Safety was assessed in all patients who received at least one dose of assigned treatment. A non-inferiority margin of -5·5% was chosen. The trial, which is completed, was prospectively registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT00278421.
Findings
Between Dec 2, 2005, and Oct 7, 2016, 592 patients were enrolled, of whom 295 patients were randomly assigned to receive six cycles of R-CHOP and 297 were assigned to receive four cycles of R-CHOP plus two doses of rituximab. Four patients in the four-cycles group withdrew informed consent before the start of treatment, so 588 patients were included in the intention-to-treat analysis. After a median follow-up of 66 months (IQR 42-100), 3-year progression-free survival of patients who had four cycles of R-CHOP plus two doses of rituximab was 96% (95% CI 94-99), which was 3% better (lower limit of the one-sided 95% CI for the difference was 0%) than six cycles of R-CHOP, demonstrating the non-inferiority of the four-cycles regimen. 294 haematological and 1036 non-haematological adverse events were documented in the four-cycles group compared with 426 haematological and 1280 non-haematological adverse events in the six-cycles group. Two patients, both in the six-cycles group, died during study therapy.
Interpretation
In young patients with aggressive B-cell non-Hodgkin lymphoma and favourable prognosis, four cycles of R-CHOP is non-inferior to six cycles of R-CHOP, with relevant reduction of toxic effects. Thus, chemotherapy can be reduced without compromising outcomes in this population.
Funding
Deutsche Krebshilfe.

Copyright © 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 20 Dec 2020; 394:2271-2281
Poeschel V, Held G, Ziepert M, Witzens-Harig M, ... ,
Lancet: 20 Dec 2020; 394:2271-2281 | PMID: 31868632
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Abstract

The Community-Level Interventions for Pre-eclampsia (CLIP) cluster randomised trials in Mozambique, Pakistan, and India: an individual participant-level meta-analysis.

von Dadelszen P, Bhutta ZA, Sharma S, Bone J, ... Magee LA,
Background
To overcome the three delays in triage, transport and treatment that underlie adverse pregnancy outcomes, we aimed to reduce all-cause adverse outcomes with community-level interventions targeting women with pregnancy hypertension in three low-income countries.
Methods
In this individual participant-level meta-analysis, we de-identified and pooled data from the Community-Level Interventions for Pre-eclampsia (CLIP) cluster randomised controlled trials in Mozambique, Pakistan, and India, which were run in 2014-17. Consenting pregnant women, aged 12-49 years, were recruited in their homes. Clusters, defined by local administrative units, were randomly assigned (1:1) to intervention or control groups. The control groups continued local standard of care. The intervention comprised community engagement and existing community health worker-led mobile health-supported early detection, initial treatment, and hospital referral of women with hypertension. For this meta-analysis, as for the original studies, the primary outcome was a composite of maternal or perinatal outcome (either maternal, fetal, or neonatal death, or severe morbidity for the mother or baby), assessed by unmasked trial surveillance personnel. For this analysis, we included all consenting participants who were followed up with completed pregnancies at trial end. We analysed the outcome data with multilevel modelling and present data with the summary statistic of adjusted odds ratios (ORs) with 95% CIs (fixed effects for maternal age, parity, maternal education, and random effects for country and cluster). This meta-analysis is registered with PROSPERO, CRD42018102564.
Findings
Overall, 44 clusters (69 330 pregnant women) were randomly assigned to intervention (22 clusters [36 008 pregnancies]) or control (22 clusters [33 322 pregnancies]) groups. 32 290 (89·7%) pregnancies in the intervention group and 29 698 (89·1%) in the control group were followed up successfully. Median maternal age of included women was 26 years (IQR 22-30). In the intervention clusters, 6990 group and 16 691 home-based community engagement sessions and 138 347 community health worker-led visits to 20 819 (57·8%) of 36 008 women (of whom 11 095 [53·3%] had a visit every 4 weeks) occurred. Blood pressure and dipstick proteinuria were assessed per protocol. Few women were eligible for methyldopa for severe hypertension (181 [1%] of 20 819) or intramuscular magnesium sulfate for pre-eclampsia (198 [1%]), of whom most accepted treatment (162 [89·5%] of 181 for severe hypertension and 133 [67·2%] of 198 for pre-eclampsia). 1255 (6%) were referred to a comprehensive emergency obstetric care facility, of whom 864 (82%) accepted the referral. The primary outcome was similar in the intervention (7871 [24%] of 32 290 pregnancies) and control clusters (6516 [22%] of 29 698; adjusted OR 1·17, 95% CI 0·90-1·51; p=0·24). No intervention-related serious adverse events occurred, and few adverse effects occurred after in-community treatment with methyldopa (one [2%] of 51; India only) and none occurred after in-community treatment with magnesium sulfate or during transport to facility.
Interpretation
The CLIP intervention did not reduce adverse pregnancy outcomes. Future community-level interventions should expand the community health worker workforce, assess general (rather than condition-specific) messaging, and include health system strengthening.
Funding
University of British Columbia, a grantee of the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Copyright © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 21 Aug 2020; 396:553-563
von Dadelszen P, Bhutta ZA, Sharma S, Bone J, ... Magee LA,
Lancet: 21 Aug 2020; 396:553-563 | PMID: 32828187
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Abstract

Venoarterial extracorporeal membrane oxygenation to rescue sepsis-induced cardiogenic shock: a retrospective, multicentre, international cohort study.

Bréchot N, Hajage D, Kimmoun A, Demiselle J, ... Combes A,
Background
Patients with sepsis-induced cardiomyopathy with cardiogenic shock have a high mortality. This study assessed venoarterial extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (VA-ECMO) support for sepsis-induced cardiogenic shock refractory to conventional treatments.
Methods
In this retrospective, multicentre, international cohort study, we compared outcomes of 82 patients (aged ≥18 years) with septic shock who received VA-ECMO at five academic ECMO centres, with 130 controls (not receiving ECMO) obtained from three large databases of septic shock. All patients had severe myocardial dysfunction (cardiac index 3 L/min per m or less or left ventricular ejection fraction [LVEF] 35% or less) and severe haemodynamic compromise (inotrope score at least 75 μg/kg per min or lactic acidaemia at least 4 mmol/L) at time of inclusion. The primary endpoint was survival at 90 days. A propensity score-weighted analysis was done to control for confounders.
Findings
At baseline, patients treated with VA-ECMO had more severe myocardial dysfunction (mean cardiac index 1·5 L/min per mvs 2·2 L/min per m, LVEF 17% vs 27%), more severe haemodynamic impairment (inotrope score 279 μg/kg per min vs 145 μg/kg per min, lactataemia 8·9 mmol/L vs 6·5 mmol/L), and more severe organ failure (Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score 17 vs 13) than did controls, with p<0·0001 for each comparison. Survival at 90 days for patients treated with VA-ECMO was significantly higher than for controls (60% vs 25%, risk ratio [RR] for mortality 0·54, 95% CI [0·40-0·70]; p<0·0001). After propensity score weighting, ECMO remained associated with improved survival (51% vs 14%, adjusted RR for mortality 0·57, 95% CI [0·35-0·93]; p=0·0029). Lactate and catecholamine clearance were also significantly enhanced in patients treated with ECMO. Among the 49 survivors treated with ECMO, 32 who had been treated at the largest centre reported satisfactory Short Form-36 evaluated health-related quality of life at 1-year follow-up.
Interpretation
Patients with severe sepsis-induced cardiogenic shock treated with VA-ECMO had a large and significant improvement in survival compared with controls not receiving ECMO. However, despite the careful propensity-weighted analysis, we cannot rule out unmeasured confounders.
Funding
None.

Copyright © 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 21 Aug 2020; 396:545-552
Bréchot N, Hajage D, Kimmoun A, Demiselle J, ... Combes A,
Lancet: 21 Aug 2020; 396:545-552 | PMID: 32828186
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Abstract

Sex and gender: modifiers of health, disease, and medicine.

Mauvais-Jarvis F, Bairey Merz N, Barnes PJ, Brinton RD, ... Sandberg K, Suzuki A

Clinicians can encounter sex and gender disparities in diagnostic and therapeutic responses. These disparities are noted in epidemiology, pathophysiology, clinical manifestations, disease progression, and response to treatment. This Review discusses the fundamental influences of sex and gender as modifiers of the major causes of death and morbidity. We articulate how the genetic, epigenetic, and hormonal influences of biological sex influence physiology and disease, and how the social constructs of gender affect the behaviour of the community, clinicians, and patients in the health-care system and interact with pathobiology. We aim to guide clinicians and researchers to consider sex and gender in their approach to diagnosis, prevention, and treatment of diseases as a necessary and fundamental step towards precision medicine, which will benefit men\'s and women\'s health.

Copyright © 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 21 Aug 2020; 396:565-582
Mauvais-Jarvis F, Bairey Merz N, Barnes PJ, Brinton RD, ... Sandberg K, Suzuki A
Lancet: 21 Aug 2020; 396:565-582 | PMID: 32828189
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Abstract

Effect of collaborative care between traditional and faith healers and primary health-care workers on psychosis outcomes in Nigeria and Ghana (COSIMPO): a cluster randomised controlled trial.

Gureje O, Appiah-Poku J, Bello T, Kola L, ... Price L, Seedat S
Background
Traditional and faith healers (TFH) provide care to a large number of people with psychosis in many sub-Saharan African countries but they practise outside the formal mental health system. We aimed to assess the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of a collaborative shared care model for psychosis delivered by TFH and primary health-care providers (PHCW).
Methods
In this cluster-randomised trial in Kumasi, Ghana and Ibadan, Nigeria, we randomly allocated clusters (a primary care clinic and neighbouring TFH facilities) 1:1, stratified by size and country, to an intervention group or enhanced care as usual. The intervention included a manualised collaborative shared care delivered by trained TFH and PHCW. Eligible participants were adults (aged ≥18 years) newly admitted to TFH facilities with active psychotic symptoms (positive and negative syndrome scale [PANSS] score ≥60). The primary outcome, by masked assessments at 6 months, was the difference in psychotic symptom improvement as measured with the PANSS in patients in follow-up at 3 and 6 months. Patients exposure to harmful treatment practices, such as shackling, were also assessed at 3 and 6 months. Care costs were assessed at baseline, 3-month and 6-month follow-up, and for the entire 6 months of follow-up. This trial was registered with the National Institutes of Health Clinical Trial registry, NCT02895269.
Findings
Between Sept 1, 2016, and May 3, 2017, 51 clusters were randomly allocated (26 intervention, 25 control) with 307 patients enrolled (166 [54%] in the intervention group and 141 [46%] in the control group). 190 (62%) of participants were men. Baseline mean PANSS score was 107·3 (SD 17·5) for the intervention group and 108·9 (18·3) for the control group. 286 (93%) completed the 6-month follow-up at which the mean total PANSS score for intervention group was 53·4 (19·9) compared with 67·6 (23·3) for the control group (adjusted mean difference -15·01 (95% CI -21·17 to -8·84; 0·0001). Harmful practices decreased from 94 (57%) of 166 patients at baseline to 13 (9%) of 152 at 6 months in the intervention group (-0·48 [-0·60 to -0·37] p<0·001) and from 59 (42%) of 141 patients to 13 (10%) of 134 in the control group (-0·33 [-0·45 to -0·21] p<0·001), with no significant difference between the two groups. Greater reductions in overall care costs were seen in the intervention group than in the control group. At the 6 month assessment, greater reductions in total health service and time costs were seen in the intervention group; however, cumulative costs over this period were higher (US $627 per patient vs $526 in the control group). Five patients in the intervention group had mild extrapyramidal side effects.
Interpretation
A collaborative shared care delivered by TFH and conventional health-care providers for people with psychosis was effective and cost-effective. The model of care offers the prospect of scaling up improved care to this vulnerable population in settings with low resources.
Funding
US National Institute of Mental Health.

Copyright © 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 28 Aug 2020; 396:612-622
Gureje O, Appiah-Poku J, Bello T, Kola L, ... Price L, Seedat S
Lancet: 28 Aug 2020; 396:612-622 | PMID: 32861306
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Abstract

Invasive versus non-invasive management of older patients with non-ST elevation myocardial infarction (SENIOR-NSTEMI): a cohort study based on routine clinical data.

Kaura A, Sterne JAC, Trickey A, Abbott S, ... Patel RS, Mayet J
Background
Previous trials suggest lower long-term risk of mortality after invasive rather than non-invasive management of patients with non-ST elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI), but the trials excluded very elderly patients. We aimed to estimate the effect of invasive versus non-invasive management within 3 days of peak troponin concentration on the survival of patients aged 80 years or older with NSTEMI.
Methods
Routine clinical data for this study were obtained from five collaborating hospitals hosting NIHR Biomedical Research Centres in the UK (all tertiary centres with emergency departments). Eligible patients were 80 years old or older when they underwent troponin measurements and were diagnosed with NSTEMI between 2010 (2008 for University College Hospital) and 2017. Propensity scores (patients\' estimated probability of receiving invasive management) based on pretreatment variables were derived using logistic regression; patients with high probabilities of non-invasive or invasive management were excluded. Patients who died within 3 days of peak troponin concentration without receiving invasive management were assigned to the invasive or non-invasive management groups based on their propensity scores, to mitigate immortal time bias. We estimated mortality hazard ratios comparing invasive with non-invasive management, and compared the rate of hospital admissions for heart failure.
Findings
Of the 1976 patients with NSTEMI, 101 died within 3 days of their peak troponin concentration and 375 were excluded because of extreme propensity scores. The remaining 1500 patients had a median age of 86 (IQR 82-89) years of whom (845 [56%] received non-invasive management. During median follow-up of 3·0 (IQR 1·2-4·8) years, 613 (41%) patients died. The adjusted cumulative 5-year mortality was 36% in the invasive management group and 55% in the non-invasive management group (adjusted hazard ratio 0·68, 95% CI 0·55-0·84). Invasive management was associated with lower incidence of hospital admissions for heart failure (adjusted rate ratio compared with non-invasive management 0·67, 95% CI 0·48-0·93).
Interpretation
The survival advantage of invasive compared with non-invasive management appears to extend to patients with NSTEMI who are aged 80 years or older.
Funding
NIHR Imperial Biomedical Research Centre, as part of the NIHR Health Informatics Collaborative.

Copyright © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 28 Aug 2020; 396:623-634
Kaura A, Sterne JAC, Trickey A, Abbott S, ... Patel RS, Mayet J
Lancet: 28 Aug 2020; 396:623-634 | PMID: 32861307
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Abstract

Mavacamten for treatment of symptomatic obstructive hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (EXPLORER-HCM): a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, phase 3 trial.

Olivotto I, Oreziak A, Barriales-Villa R, Abraham TP, ... Jacoby D,
Background
Cardiac muscle hypercontractility is a key pathophysiological abnormality in hypertrophic cardiomyopathy, and a major determinant of dynamic left ventricular outflow tract (LVOT) obstruction. Available pharmacological options for hypertrophic cardiomyopathy are inadequate or poorly tolerated and are not disease-specific. We aimed to assess the efficacy and safety of mavacamten, a first-in-class cardiac myosin inhibitor, in symptomatic obstructive hypertrophic cardiomyopathy.
Methods
In this phase 3, randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial (EXPLORER-HCM) in 68 clinical cardiovascular centres in 13 countries, patients with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy with an LVOT gradient of 50 mm Hg or greater and New York Heart Association (NYHA) class II-III symptoms were assigned (1:1) to receive mavacamten (starting at 5 mg) or placebo for 30 weeks. Visits for assessment of patient status occurred every 2-4 weeks. Serial evaluations included echocardiogram, electrocardiogram, and blood collection for laboratory tests and mavacamten plasma concentration. The primary endpoint was a 1·5 mL/kg per min or greater increase in peak oxygen consumption (pVO) and at least one NYHA class reduction or a 3·0 mL/kg per min or greater pVO increase without NYHA class worsening. Secondary endpoints assessed changes in post-exercise LVOT gradient, pVO, NYHA class, Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire-Clinical Summary Score (KCCQ-CSS), and Hypertrophic Cardiomyopathy Symptom Questionnaire Shortness-of-Breath subscore (HCMSQ-SoB). This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03470545.
Findings
Between May 30, 2018, and July 12, 2019, 429 adults were assessed for eligibility, of whom 251 (59%) were enrolled and randomly assigned to mavacamten (n=123 [49%]) or placebo (n=128 [51%]). 45 (37%) of 123 patients on mavacamten versus 22 (17%) of 128 on placebo met the primary endpoint (difference +19·4%, 95% CI 8·7 to 30·1; p=0·0005). Patients on mavacamten had greater reductions than those on placebo in post-exercise LVOT gradient (-36 mm Hg, 95% CI -43·2 to -28·1; p<0·0001), greater increase in pVO (+1·4 mL/kg per min, 0·6 to 2·1; p=0·0006), and improved symptom scores (KCCQ-CSS +9·1, 5·5 to 12·7; HCMSQ-SoB -1·8, -2·4 to -1·2; p<0·0001). 34% more patients in the mavacamten group improved by at least one NYHA class (80 of 123 patients in the mavacamten group vs 40 of 128 patients in the placebo group; 95% CI 22·2 to 45·4; p<0·0001). Safety and tolerability were similar to placebo. Treatment-emergent adverse events were generally mild. One patient died by sudden death in the placebo group.
Interpretation
Treatment with mavacamten improved exercise capacity, LVOT obstruction, NYHA functional class, and health status in patients with obstructive hypertrophic cardiomyopathy. The results of this pivotal trial highlight the benefits of disease-specific treatment for this condition.
Funding
MyoKardia.

Copyright © 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 27 Aug 2020; epub ahead of print
Olivotto I, Oreziak A, Barriales-Villa R, Abraham TP, ... Jacoby D,
Lancet: 27 Aug 2020; epub ahead of print | PMID: 32871100
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Abstract

SGLT2 inhibitors in patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction: a meta-analysis of the EMPEROR-Reduced and DAPA-HF trials.

Zannad F, Ferreira JP, Pocock SJ, Anker SD, ... Jamal W, Packer M
Background
Both DAPA-HF (assessing dapagliflozin) and EMPEROR-Reduced (assessing empagliflozin) trials showed that sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 (SGLT2) inhibition reduced the combined risk of cardiovascular death or hospitalisation for heart failure in patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) with or without diabetes. However, neither trial was powered to assess effects on cardiovascular death or all-cause death or to characterise effects in clinically important subgroups. Using study-level published data from DAPA-HF and patient-level data from EMPEROR-Reduced, we aimed to estimate the effect of SGLT2 inhibition on fatal and non-fatal heart failure events and renal outcomes in all randomly assigned patients with HFrEF and in relevant subgroups from DAPA-HF and EMPEROR-Reduced trials.
Methods
We did a prespecified meta-analysis of the two single large-scale trials assessing the effects of SGLT2 inhibitors on cardiovascular outcomes in patients with HFrEF with or without diabetes: DAPA-HF (assessing dapagliflozin) and EMPEROR-Reduced (assessing empagliflozin). The primary endpoint was time to all-cause death. Additionally, we assessed the effects of treatment in prespecified subgroups on the combined risk of cardiovascular death or hospitalisation for heart failure. These subgroups were based on type 2 diabetes status, age, sex, angiotensin receptor neprilysin inhibitor (ARNI) treatment, New York Heart Association (NYHA) functional class, race, history of hospitalisation for heart failure, estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), body-mass index, and region (post-hoc). We used hazard ratios (HRs) derived from Cox proportional hazard models for time-to-first event endpoints and Cochran\'s Q test for treatment interactions; the analysis of recurrent events was based on rate ratios derived from the Lin-Wei-Yang-Ying model.
Findings
Among 8474 patients combined from both trials, the estimated treatment effect was a 13% reduction in all-cause death (pooled HR 0·87, 95% CI 0·77-0·98; p=0·018) and 14% reduction in cardiovascular death (0·86, 0·76-0·98; p=0·027). SGLT2 inhibition was accompanied by a 26% relative reduction in the combined risk of cardiovascular death or first hospitalisation for heart failure (0·74, 0·68-0·82; p<0·0001), and by a 25% decrease in the composite of recurrent hospitalisations for heart failure or cardiovascular death (0·75, 0·68-0·84; p<0·0001). The risk of the composite renal endpoint was also reduced (0·62, 0·43-0·90; p=0·013). All tests for heterogeneity of effect size between trials were not significant. The pooled treatment effects showed consistent benefits for subgroups based on age, sex, diabetes, treatment with an ARNI and baseline eGFR, but suggested treatment-by-subgroup interactions for subgroups based on NYHA functional class and race.
Interpretation
The effects of empagliflozin and dapagliflozin on hospitalisations for heart failure were consistent in the two independent trials and suggest that these agents also improve renal outcomes and reduce all-cause and cardiovascular death in patients with HFrEF.
Funding
Boehringer Ingelheim.

Copyright © 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 27 Aug 2020; epub ahead of print
Zannad F, Ferreira JP, Pocock SJ, Anker SD, ... Jamal W, Packer M
Lancet: 27 Aug 2020; epub ahead of print | PMID: 32877652
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Abstract

Gastric cancer.

Smyth EC, Nilsson M, Grabsch HI, van Grieken NC, Lordick F

Gastric cancer is the fifth most common cancer and the third most common cause of cancer death globally. Risk factors for the condition include Helicobacter pylori infection, age, high salt intake, and diets low in fruit and vegetables. Gastric cancer is diagnosed histologically after endoscopic biopsy and staged using CT, endoscopic ultrasound, PET, and laparoscopy. It is a molecularly and phenotypically highly heterogeneous disease. The main treatment for early gastric cancer is endoscopic resection. Non-early operable gastric cancer is treated with surgery, which should include D2 lymphadenectomy (including lymph node stations in the perigastric mesentery and along the celiac arterial branches). Perioperative or adjuvant chemotherapy improves survival in patients with stage 1B or higher cancers. Advanced gastric cancer is treated with sequential lines of chemotherapy, starting with a platinum and fluoropyrimidine doublet in the first line; median survival is less than 1 year. Targeted therapies licensed to treat gastric cancer include trastuzumab (HER2-positive patients first line), ramucirumab (anti-angiogenic second line), and nivolumab or pembrolizumab (anti-PD-1 third line).

Copyright © 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 28 Aug 2020; 396:635-648
Smyth EC, Nilsson M, Grabsch HI, van Grieken NC, Lordick F
Lancet: 28 Aug 2020; 396:635-648 | PMID: 32861308
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Abstract

Mifepristone and misoprostol versus misoprostol alone for the management of missed miscarriage (MifeMiso): a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial.

Chu JJ, Devall AJ, Beeson LE, Hardy P, ... Quenby S, Coomarasamy A
Background
The anti-progesterone drug mifepristone and the prostaglandin misoprostol can be used to treat missed miscarriage. However, it is unclear whether a combination of mifepristone and misoprostol is more effective than administering misoprostol alone. We investigated whether treatment with mifepristone plus misoprostol would result in a higher rate of completion of missed miscarriage compared with misoprostol alone.
Methods
MifeMiso was a multicentre, double-blind, placebo-controlled, randomised trial in 28 UK hospitals. Women were eligible for enrolment if they were aged 16 years and older, diagnosed with a missed miscarriage by pelvic ultrasound scan in the first 14 weeks of pregnancy, chose to have medical management of miscarriage, and were willing and able to give informed consent. Participants were randomly assigned (1:1) to a single dose of oral mifepristone 200 mg or an oral placebo tablet, both followed by a single dose of vaginal, oral, or sublingual misoprostol 800 μg 2 days later. Randomisation was managed via a secure web-based randomisation program, with minimisation to balance study group assignments according to maternal age (<30 years vs ≥30 years), body-mass index (<35 kg/mvs ≥35 kg/m), previous parity (nulliparous women vs parous women), gestational age (<70 days vs ≥70 days), amount of bleeding (Pictorial Blood Assessment Chart score; ≤2 vs ≥3), and randomising centre. Participants, clinicians, pharmacists, trial nurses, and midwives were masked to study group assignment throughout the trial. The primary outcome was failure to spontaneously pass the gestational sac within 7 days after random assignment. Primary analyses were done according to intention-to-treat principles. The trial is registered with the ISRCTN registry, ISRCTN17405024.
Findings
Between Oct 3, 2017, and July 22, 2019, 2595 women were identified as being eligible for the MifeMiso trial. 711 women were randomly assigned to receive either mifepristone and misoprostol (357 women) or placebo and misoprostol (354 women). 696 (98%) of 711 women had available data for the primary outcome. 59 (17%) of 348 women in the mifepristone plus misoprostol group did not pass the gestational sac spontaneously within 7 days versus 82 (24%) of 348 women in the placebo plus misoprostol group (risk ratio [RR] 0·73, 95% CI 0·54-0·99; p=0·043). 62 (17%) of 355 women in the mifepristone plus misoprostol group required surgical intervention to complete the miscarriage versus 87 (25%) of 353 women in the placebo plus misoprostol group (0·71, 0·53-0·95; p=0·021). We found no difference in incidence of adverse events between the study groups.
Interpretation
Treatment with mifepristone plus misoprostol was more effective than misoprostol alone in the management of missed miscarriage. Women with missed miscarriage should be offered mifepristone pretreatment before misoprostol to increase the chance of successful miscarriage management, while reducing the need for miscarriage surgery.
Funding
UK National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment Programme.

This is an Open Access article under the CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 license.

Lancet: 23 Aug 2020; epub ahead of print
Chu JJ, Devall AJ, Beeson LE, Hardy P, ... Quenby S, Coomarasamy A
Lancet: 23 Aug 2020; epub ahead of print | PMID: 32853559
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Impact:
Abstract

Measuring universal health coverage based on an index of effective coverage of health services in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.


Background
Achieving universal health coverage (UHC) involves all people receiving the health services they need, of high quality, without experiencing financial hardship. Making progress towards UHC is a policy priority for both countries and global institutions, as highlighted by the agenda of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and WHO\'s Thirteenth General Programme of Work (GPW13). Measuring effective coverage at the health-system level is important for understanding whether health services are aligned with countries\' health profiles and are of sufficient quality to produce health gains for populations of all ages.
Methods
Based on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we assessed UHC effective coverage for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. Drawing from a measurement framework developed through WHO\'s GPW13 consultation, we mapped 23 effective coverage indicators to a matrix representing health service types (eg, promotion, prevention, and treatment) and five population-age groups spanning from reproductive and newborn to older adults (≥65 years). Effective coverage indicators were based on intervention coverage or outcome-based measures such as mortality-to-incidence ratios to approximate access to quality care; outcome-based measures were transformed to values on a scale of 0-100 based on the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile of location-year values. We constructed the UHC effective coverage index by weighting each effective coverage indicator relative to its associated potential health gains, as measured by disability-adjusted life-years for each location-year and population-age group. For three tests of validity (content, known-groups, and convergent), UHC effective coverage index performance was generally better than that of other UHC service coverage indices from WHO (ie, the current metric for SDG indicator 3.8.1 on UHC service coverage), the World Bank, and GBD 2017. We quantified frontiers of UHC effective coverage performance on the basis of pooled health spending per capita, representing UHC effective coverage index levels achieved in 2019 relative to country-level government health spending, prepaid private expenditures, and development assistance for health. To assess current trajectories towards the GPW13 UHC billion target-1 billion more people benefiting from UHC by 2023-we estimated additional population equivalents with UHC effective coverage from 2018 to 2023.
Findings
Globally, performance on the UHC effective coverage index improved from 45·8 (95% uncertainty interval 44·2-47·5) in 1990 to 60·3 (58·7-61·9) in 2019, yet country-level UHC effective coverage in 2019 still spanned from 95 or higher in Japan and Iceland to lower than 25 in Somalia and the Central African Republic. Since 2010, sub-Saharan Africa showed accelerated gains on the UHC effective coverage index (at an average increase of 2·6% [1·9-3·3] per year up to 2019); by contrast, most other GBD super-regions had slowed rates of progress in 2010-2019 relative to 1990-2010. Many countries showed lagging performance on effective coverage indicators for non-communicable diseases relative to those for communicable diseases and maternal and child health, despite non-communicable diseases accounting for a greater proportion of potential health gains in 2019, suggesting that many health systems are not keeping pace with the rising non-communicable disease burden and associated population health needs. In 2019, the UHC effective coverage index was associated with pooled health spending per capita (r=0·79), although countries across the development spectrum had much lower UHC effective coverage than is potentially achievable relative to their health spending. Under maximum efficiency of translating health spending into UHC effective coverage performance, countries would need to reach $1398 pooled health spending per capita (US$ adjusted for purchasing power parity) in order to achieve 80 on the UHC effective coverage index. From 2018 to 2023, an estimated 388·9 million (358·6-421·3) more population equivalents would have UHC effective coverage, falling well short of the GPW13 target of 1 billion more people benefiting from UHC during this time. Current projections point to an estimated 3·1 billion (3·0-3·2) population equivalents still lacking UHC effective coverage in 2023, with nearly a third (968·1 million [903·5-1040·3]) residing in south Asia.
Interpretation
The present study demonstrates the utility of measuring effective coverage and its role in supporting improved health outcomes for all people-the ultimate goal of UHC and its achievement. Global ambitions to accelerate progress on UHC service coverage are increasingly unlikely unless concerted action on non-communicable diseases occurs and countries can better translate health spending into improved performance. Focusing on effective coverage and accounting for the world\'s evolving health needs lays the groundwork for better understanding how close-or how far-all populations are in benefiting from UHC.
Funding
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Copyright © 2020 Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 26 Aug 2020; epub ahead of print
Lancet: 26 Aug 2020; epub ahead of print | PMID: 32861314
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Abstract

Efficacy and safety of trimetazidine after percutaneous coronary intervention (ATPCI): a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial.

Ferrari R, Ford I, Fox K, Challeton JP, ... Danchin N,
Background
Angina might persist or reoccur despite successful revascularisation with percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) and antianginal therapy. Additionally, PCI in stable patients has not been shown to improve survival compared with optimal medical therapy. Trimetazidine is an antianginal agent that improves energy metabolism of the ischaemic myocardium and might improve outcomes and symptoms of patients who recently had a PCI. In this study, we aimed to assess the long-term potential benefits and safety of trimetazidine added to standard evidence-based medical treatment in patients who had a recent successful PCI.
Methods
We did a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, event-driven trial of trimetazidine added to standard background therapy in patients who had undergone successful PCI at 365 centres in 27 countries across Europe, South America, Asia, and north Africa. Eligible patients were aged 21-85 years and had had either elective PCI for stable angina or urgent PCI for unstable angina or non-ST segment elevation myocardial infarction less than 30 days before randomisation. Patients were randomly assigned by an interactive web response system to oral trimetazidine 35 mg modified-release twice daily or matching placebo. Participants, study investigators, and all study staff were masked to treatment allocation. The primary efficacy endpoint was a composite of cardiac death; hospital admission for a cardiac event; recurrence or persistence of angina requiring an addition, switch, or increase of the dose of at least one antianginal drug; or recurrence or persistence of angina requiring a coronary angiography. Efficacy analyses were done according to the intention-to-treat principle. Safety was assessed in all patients who had at least one dose of study drug. This study is registered with the EU Clinical Trials Register (EudraCT 2010-022134-89).
Findings
From Sept 17, 2014, to June 15, 2016, 6007 patients were enrolled and randomly assigned to receive either trimetazidine (n=2998) or placebo (n=3009). After a median follow-up of 47·5 months (IQR 42·3-53·3), incidence of primary endpoint events was not significantly different between the trimetazidine group (700 [23·3%] patients) and the placebo group (714 [23·7%]; hazard ratio 0·98 [95% CI 0·88-1·09], p=0·73). When analysed individually, there were no significant differences in the incidence of the components of the primary endpoint between the treatment groups. Similar results were obtained when patients were categorised according to whether they had an elective or urgent PCI. 1219 (40·9%) of 2983 patients in the trimetazidine group and 1230 (41·1%) of 2990 patients in the placebo group had serious treatment-emergent adverse events. Frequencies of adverse events of interest were similar between the groups.
Interpretation
Our results show that the routine use of oral trimetazidine 35 mg twice daily over several years in patients receiving optimal medical therapy, after successful PCI, does not influence the recurrence of angina or the outcome; these findings should be taken into account when considering the place of trimetazidine in clinical practice. However, the long-term prescription of this treatment does not appear to be associated with any statistically significant safety concerns in the population studied.
Funding
Servier.

Copyright © 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 27 Aug 2020; epub ahead of print
Ferrari R, Ford I, Fox K, Challeton JP, ... Danchin N,
Lancet: 27 Aug 2020; epub ahead of print | PMID: 32877651
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Abstract

Once-daily, subcutaneous vosoritide therapy in children with achondroplasia: a randomised, double-blind, phase 3, placebo-controlled, multicentre trial.

Savarirayan R, Tofts L, Irving M, Wilcox W, ... Huntsman-Labed A, Day J
Background
There are no effective therapies for achondroplasia. An open-label study suggested that vosoritide administration might increase growth velocity in children with achondroplasia. This phase 3 trial was designed to further assess these preliminary findings.
Methods
This randomised, double-blind, phase 3, placebo-controlled, multicentre trial compared once-daily subcutaneous administration of vosoritide with placebo in children with achondroplasia. The trial was done in hospitals at 24 sites in seven countries (Australia, Germany, Japan, Spain, Turkey, the USA, and the UK). Eligible patients had a clinical diagnosis of achondroplasia, were ambulatory, had participated for 6 months in a baseline growth study and were aged 5 to less than 18 years at enrolment. Randomisation was done by means of a voice or web-response system, stratified according to sex and Tanner stage. Participants, investigators, and trial sponsor were masked to group assignment. Participants received either vosoritide 15·0 μg/kg or placebo, as allocated, for the duration of the 52-week treatment period administered by daily subcutaneous injections in their homes by trained caregivers. The primary endpoint was change from baseline in mean annualised growth velocity at 52 weeks in treated patients as compared with controls. All randomly assigned patients were included in the efficacy analyses (n=121). All patients who received one dose of vosoritide or placebo (n=121) were included in the safety analyses. The trial is complete and is registered, with EudraCT, number, 2015-003836-11.
Findings
All participants were recruited from Dec 12, 2016, to Nov 7, 2018, with 60 assigned to receive vosoritide and 61 to receive placebo. Of 124 patients screened for eligibility, 121 patients were randomly assigned, and 119 patients completed the 52-week trial. The adjusted mean difference in annualised growth velocity between patients in the vosoritide group and placebo group was 1·57 cm/year in favour of vosoritide (95% CI [1·22-1·93]; two-sided p<0·0001). A total of 119 patients had at least one adverse event; vosoritide group, 59 (98%), and placebo group, 60 (98%). None of the serious adverse events were considered to be treatment related and no deaths occurred.
Interpretation
Vosoritide is an effective treatment to increase growth in children with achondroplasia. It is not known whether final adult height will be increased, or what the harms of long-term therapy might be.
Funding
BioMarin Pharmaceutical.

Copyright © 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 04 Sep 2020; 396:684-692
Savarirayan R, Tofts L, Irving M, Wilcox W, ... Huntsman-Labed A, Day J
Lancet: 04 Sep 2020; 396:684-692 | PMID: 32891212
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Abstract

Acute pancreatitis.

Boxhoorn L, Voermans RP, Bouwense SA, Bruno MJ, ... van Santvoort HC, Besselink MG

Acute pancreatitis is an unpredictable and potentially lethal disease. The prognosis mainly depends on the development of organ failure and secondary infection of pancreatic or peripancreatic necrosis. In the past 10 years, treatment of acute pancreatitis has moved towards a multidisciplinary, tailored, and minimally invasive approach. Despite improvements in treatment and critical care, severe acute pancreatitis is still associated with high mortality rates. In this Seminar, we outline the latest evidence on diagnostic and therapeutic strategies for acute pancreatitis.

Copyright © 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 04 Sep 2020; 396:726-734
Boxhoorn L, Voermans RP, Bouwense SA, Bruno MJ, ... van Santvoort HC, Besselink MG
Lancet: 04 Sep 2020; 396:726-734 | PMID: 32891214
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Abstract

NCD Countdown 2030: pathways to achieving Sustainable Development Goal target 3.4.



The Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) target 3.4 is to reduce premature mortality from non-communicable diseases (NCDs) by a third by 2030 relative to 2015 levels, and to promote mental health and wellbeing. We used data on cause-specific mortality to characterise the risk and trends in NCD mortality in each country and evaluate combinations of reductions in NCD causes of death that can achieve SDG target 3.4. Among NCDs, ischaemic heart disease is responsible for the highest risk of premature death in more than half of all countries for women, and more than three-quarters for men. However, stroke, other cardiovascular diseases, and some cancers are associated with a similar risk, and in many countries, a higher risk of premature death than ischaemic heart disease. Although premature mortality from NCDs is declining in most countries, for most the pace of change is too slow to achieve SDG target 3.4. To investigate the options available to each country for achieving SDG target 3.4, we considered different scenarios, each representing a combination of fast (annual rate achieved by the tenth best performing percentile of all countries) and average (median of all countries) declines in risk of premature death from NCDs. Pathways analysis shows that every country has options for achieving SDG target 3.4. No country could achieve the target by addressing a single disease. In at least half the countries, achieving the target requires improvements in the rate of decline in at least five causes for women and in at least seven causes for men to the same rate achieved by the tenth best performing percentile of all countries. Tobacco and alcohol control and effective health-system interventions-including hypertension and diabetes treatment; primary and secondary cardiovascular disease prevention in high-risk individuals; low-dose inhaled corticosteroids and bronchodilators for asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease; treatment of acute cardiovascular diseases, diabetes complications, and exacerbations of asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease; and effective cancer screening and treatment-will reduce NCD causes of death necessary to achieve SDG target 3.4 in most countries.

Copyright © 2020 World Health Organization. Published by Elsevier Ltd/Inc/BV. All rights reserved. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 02 Sep 2020; epub ahead of print
Lancet: 02 Sep 2020; epub ahead of print | PMID: 32891217
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Abstract

Preoperative intravenous iron to treat anaemia before major abdominal surgery (PREVENTT): a randomised, double-blind, controlled trial.

Richards T, Baikady RR, Clevenger B, Butcher A, ... Anker SD, Klein A
Background
Preoperative anaemia affects a high proportion of patients undergoing major elective surgery and is associated with poor outcomes. We aimed to test the hypothesis that intravenous iron given to anaemic patients before major open elective abdominal surgery would correct anaemia, reduce the need for blood transfusions, and improve patient outcomes.
Methods
In a double-blind, parallel-group randomised trial, we recruited adult participants identified with anaemia at preoperative hospital visits before elective major open abdominal surgery at 46 UK tertiary care centres. Anaemia was defined as haemoglobin less than 130 g/L for men and 120 g/L for women. We randomly allocated participants (1:1) via a secure web-based service to receive intravenous iron or placebo 10-42 days before surgery. Intravenous iron was administered as a single 1000 mg dose of ferric carboxymaltose in 100 mL normal saline, and placebo was 100 mL normal saline, both given as an infusion over 15 min. Unblinded study personnel prepared and administered the study drug; participants and other clinical and research staff were blinded to treatment allocation. Coprimary endpoints were risk of the composite outcome of blood transfusion or death, and number of blood transfusions from randomisation to 30 days postoperatively. The primary analysis included all randomly assigned patients with data available for the primary endpoints; safety analysis included all randomly assigned patients according to the treatment received. This study is registered, ISRCTN67322816, and is closed to new participants.
Findings
Of 487 participants randomly assigned to placebo (n=243) or intravenous iron (n=244) between Jan 6, 2014, and Sept 28, 2018, complete data for the primary endpoints were available for 474 (97%) individuals. Death or blood transfusion occurred in 67 (28%) of the 237 patients in the placebo group and 69 (29%) of the 237 patients in the intravenous iron group (risk ratio 1·03, 95% CI 0·78-1·37; p=0·84). There were 111 blood transfusions in the placebo group and 105 in the intravenous iron group (rate ratio 0·98, 95% CI 0·68-1·43; p=0·93). There were no significant differences between the two groups for any of the prespecified safety endpoints.
Interpretation
Preoperative intravenous iron was not superior to placebo to reduce need for blood transfusion when administered to patients with anaemia 10-42 days before elective major abdominal surgery.
Funding
UK National Institute of Health Research Health Technology Assessment Program.

Copyright © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 03 Sep 2020; epub ahead of print
Richards T, Baikady RR, Clevenger B, Butcher A, ... Anker SD, Klein A
Lancet: 03 Sep 2020; epub ahead of print | PMID: 32896294
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Abstract

Azithromycin in addition to standard of care versus standard of care alone in the treatment of patients admitted to the hospital with severe COVID-19 in Brazil (COALITION II): a randomised clinical trial.

Furtado RHM, Berwanger O, Fonseca HA, Corrêa TD, ... Cavalcanti AB,
Background
The efficacy and safety of azithromycin in the treatment of COVID-19 remain uncertain. We assessed whether adding azithromycin to standard of care, which included hydroxychloroquine, would improve clinical outcomes of patients admitted to the hospital with severe COVID-19.
Methods
We did an open-label, randomised clinical trial at 57 centres in Brazil. We enrolled patients admitted to hospital with suspected or confirmed COVID-19 and at least one additional severity criteria as follows: use of oxygen supplementation of more than 4 L/min flow; use of high-flow nasal cannula; use of non-invasive mechanical ventilation; or use of invasive mechanical ventilation. Patients were randomly assigned (1:1) to azithromycin (500 mg via oral, nasogastric, or intravenous administration once daily for 10 days) plus standard of care or to standard of care without macrolides. All patients received hydroxychloroquine (400 mg twice daily for 10 days) because that was part of standard of care treatment in Brazil for patients with severe COVID-19. The primary outcome, assessed by an independent adjudication committee masked to treatment allocation, was clinical status at day 15 after randomisation, assessed by a six-point ordinal scale, with levels ranging from 1 to 6 and higher scores indicating a worse condition (with odds ratio [OR] greater than 1·00 favouring the control group). The primary outcome was assessed in all patients in the intention-to-treat (ITT) population who had severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infection confirmed by molecular or serological testing before randomisation (ie, modified ITT [mITT] population). Safety was assessed in all patients according to which treatment they received, regardless of original group assignment. This trial was registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04321278.
Findings
447 patients were enrolled from March 28 to May 19, 2020. COVID-19 was confirmed in 397 patients who constituted the mITT population, of whom 214 were assigned to the azithromycin group and 183 to the control group. In the mITT population, the primary endpoint was not significantly different between the azithromycin and control groups (OR 1·36 [95% CI 0·94-1·97], p=0·11). Rates of adverse events, including clinically relevant ventricular arrhythmias, resuscitated cardiac arrest, acute kidney failure, and corrected QT interval prolongation, were not significantly different between groups.
Interpretation
In patients with severe COVID-19, adding azithromycin to standard of care treatment (which included hydroxychloroquine) did not improve clinical outcomes. Our findings do not support the routine use of azithromycin in combination with hydroxychloroquine in patients with severe COVID-19.
Funding
COALITION COVID-19 Brazil and EMS.

Copyright © 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 03 Sep 2020; epub ahead of print
Furtado RHM, Berwanger O, Fonseca HA, Corrêa TD, ... Cavalcanti AB,
Lancet: 03 Sep 2020; epub ahead of print | PMID: 32896292
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Abstract

Prasugrel-based de-escalation of dual antiplatelet therapy after percutaneous coronary intervention in patients with acute coronary syndrome (HOST-REDUCE-POLYTECH-ACS): an open-label, multicentre, non-inferiority randomised trial.

Kim HS, Kang J, Hwang D, Han JK, ... Park KW,
Background
A potent P2Y12 inhibitor-based dual antiplatelet therapy is recommended for up to 1 year in patients with acute coronary syndrome receiving percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). The greatest benefit of the potent agent is during the early phase, whereas the risk of excess bleeding continues in the chronic maintenance phase. Therefore, de-escalation of antiplatelet therapy might achieve an optimal balance between ischaemia and bleeding. We aimed to investigate the safety and efficacy of a prasugrel-based dose de-escalation therapy.
Methods
HOST-REDUCE-POLYTECH-ACS is a randomised, open-label, multicentre, non-inferiority trial done at 35 hospitals in South Korea. We enrolled patients with acute coronary syndrome receiving PCI. Patients meeting the core indication for prasugrel were randomly assigned (1:1) to the de-escalation group or conventional group using a web-based randomisation system. The assessors were masked to the treatment allocation. After 1 month of treatment with 10 mg prasugrel plus 100 mg aspirin daily, the de-escalation group received 5 mg prasugrel, while the conventional group continued to receive 10 mg. The primary endpoint was net adverse clinical events (all-cause death, non-fatal myocardial infarction, stent thrombosis, repeat revascularisation, stroke, and bleeding events of grade 2 or higher according to Bleeding Academic Research Consortium [BARC] criteria) at 1 year. The absolute non-inferiority margin for the primary endpoint was 2·5%. The key secondary endpoints were efficacy outcomes (cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, stent thrombosis, and ischaemic stroke) and safety outcomes (bleeding events of BARC grade ≥2). The primary analysis was in the intention-to-treat population. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02193971.
Results
From Sept 30, 2014, to Dec 18, 2018, 3429 patients were screened, of whom 1075 patients did not meet the core indication for prasugrel and 16 were excluded due to randomisation error. 2338 patients were randomly assigned to the de-escalation group (n=1170) or the conventional group (n=1168). The primary endpoint occurred in 82 patients (Kaplan-Meier estimate 7·2%) in the de-escalation group and 116 patients (10·1%) in the conventional group (absolute risk difference -2·9%, p<0·0001; hazard ratio 0·70 [95% CI 0·52-0·92], p=0·012). There was no increase in ischaemic risk in the de-escalation group compared with the conventional group (0·76 [0·40-1·45]; p=0·40), and the risk of bleeding events was significantly decreased (0·48 [0·32-0·73]; p=0·0007).
Interpretation
In east Asian patients with acute coronary syndrome patients receiving PCI, a prasugrel-based dose de-escalation strategy from 1 month after PCI reduced the risk of net clinical outcomes up to 1 year, mainly driven by a reduction in bleeding without an increase in ischaemia.
Funding
Daiichi Sankyo, Boston Scientific, Terumo, Biotronik, Qualitech Korea, and Dio.

Copyright © 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 27 Aug 2020; epub ahead of print
Kim HS, Kang J, Hwang D, Han JK, ... Park KW,
Lancet: 27 Aug 2020; epub ahead of print | PMID: 32882163
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Impact:
Abstract

Safety and immunogenicity of an rAd26 and rAd5 vector-based heterologous prime-boost COVID-19 vaccine in two formulations: two open, non-randomised phase 1/2 studies from Russia.

Logunov DY, Dolzhikova IV, Zubkova OV, Tukhvatullin AI, ... Naroditsky BS, Gintsburg AL
Background
We developed a heterologous COVID-19 vaccine consisting of two components, a recombinant adenovirus type 26 (rAd26) vector and a recombinant adenovirus type 5 (rAd5) vector, both carrying the gene for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) spike glycoprotein (rAd26-S and rAd5-S). We aimed to assess the safety and immunogenicity of two formulations (frozen and lyophilised) of this vaccine.
Methods
We did two open, non-randomised phase 1/2 studies at two hospitals in Russia. We enrolled healthy adult volunteers (men and women) aged 18-60 years to both studies. In phase 1 of each study, we administered intramuscularly on day 0 either one dose of rAd26-S or one dose of rAd5-S and assessed the safety of the two components for 28 days. In phase 2 of the study, which began no earlier than 5 days after phase 1 vaccination, we administered intramuscularly a prime-boost vaccination, with rAd26-S given on day 0 and rAd5-S on day 21. Primary outcome measures were antigen-specific humoral immunity (SARS-CoV-2-specific antibodies measured by ELISA on days 0, 14, 21, 28, and 42) and safety (number of participants with adverse events monitored throughout the study). Secondary outcome measures were antigen-specific cellular immunity (T-cell responses and interferon-γ concentration) and change in neutralising antibodies (detected with a SARS-CoV-2 neutralisation assay). These trials are registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04436471 and NCT04437875.
Findings
Between June 18 and Aug 3, 2020, we enrolled 76 participants to the two studies (38 in each study). In each study, nine volunteers received rAd26-S in phase 1, nine received rAd5-S in phase 1, and 20 received rAd26-S and rAd5-S in phase 2. Both vaccine formulations were safe and well tolerated. The most common adverse events were pain at injection site (44 [58%]), hyperthermia (38 [50%]), headache (32 [42%]), asthenia (21 [28%]), and muscle and joint pain (18 [24%]). Most adverse events were mild and no serious adverse events were detected. All participants produced antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 glycoprotein. At day 42, receptor binding domain-specific IgG titres were 14 703 with the frozen formulation and 11 143 with the lyophilised formulation, and neutralising antibodies were 49·25 with the frozen formulation and 45·95 with the lyophilised formulation, with a seroconversion rate of 100%. Cell-mediated responses were detected in all participants at day 28, with median cell proliferation of 2·5% CD4 and 1·3% CD8 with the frozen formulation, and a median cell proliferation of 1·3% CD4 and 1·1% CD8 with the lyophilised formulation.
Interpretation
The heterologous rAd26 and rAd5 vector-based COVID-19 vaccine has a good safety profile and induced strong humoral and cellular immune responses in participants. Further investigation is needed of the effectiveness of this vaccine for prevention of COVID-19.
Funding
Ministry of Health of the Russian Federation.

Copyright © 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 02 Sep 2020; epub ahead of print
Logunov DY, Dolzhikova IV, Zubkova OV, Tukhvatullin AI, ... Naroditsky BS, Gintsburg AL
Lancet: 02 Sep 2020; epub ahead of print | PMID: 32896291
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Impact:
Abstract

Primary prevention of asthma: from risk and protective factors to targeted strategies for prevention.

von Mutius E, Smits HH

Asthma is a complex disease that often starts in childhood. Genomic and environmental factors as well as aberrant immune maturation early in life can contribute to the onset of disease, with great disparity over time and geographical regions. Epidemiological studies have scrutinised environmental exposures and attempted to translate these exposures into prevention strategies. Some approaches for patients with asthma have been successful (eg, smoking ban, the Finnish Asthma Programme), and primary prevention of wheeze in pre-school children (age 0-5 years) by the supplementation of vitamin D or fish oil, or both, to pregnant women seems promising. Several recent prevention initiatives are based on strong asthma-protective environmental microbial exposures associated with traditional rural lifestyles. Preclinical studies with various bacterial lysates, bacterial and dietary metabolites, or helminthic compounds have yielded promising results that await translation into clinical practice. Given the immense societal and individual burden of asthma, there is an urgent need to further develop novel strategies to eradicate the disease.

Copyright © 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 06 Sep 2020; epub ahead of print
von Mutius E, Smits HH
Lancet: 06 Sep 2020; epub ahead of print | PMID: 32910907
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Impact:
Abstract

Lisocabtagene maraleucel for patients with relapsed or refractory large B-cell lymphomas (TRANSCEND NHL 001): a multicentre seamless design study.

Abramson JS, Palomba ML, Gordon LI, Lunning MA, ... Li D, Siddiqi T
Background
Lisocabtagene maraleucel (liso-cel) is an autologous, CD19-directed, chimeric antigen receptor (CAR) T-cell product. We aimed to assess the activity and safety of liso-cel in patients with relapsed or refractory large B-cell lymphomas.
Methods
We did a seamless design study at 14 cancer centres in the USA. We enrolled adult patients (aged ≥18 years) with relapsed or refractory large B-cell lymphomas. Eligible histological subgroups included diffuse large B-cell lymphoma, high-grade B-cell lymphoma with rearrangements of MYC and either BCL2, BCL6, or both (double-hit or triple-hit lymphoma), diffuse large B-cell lymphoma transformed from any indolent lymphoma, primary mediastinal B-cell lymphoma, and follicular lymphoma grade 3B. Patients were assigned to one of three target dose levels of liso-cel as they were sequentially tested in the trial (50 × 10 CAR T cells [one or two doses], 100 × 10 CAR T cells, and 150 × 10 CAR T cells), which were administered as a sequential infusion of two components (CD8 and CD4 CAR T cells) at equal target doses. Primary endpoints were adverse events, dose-limiting toxicities, and the objective response rate (assessed per Lugano criteria); endpoints were assessed by an independent review committee in the efficacy-evaluable set (comprising all patients who had confirmed PET-positive disease and received at least one dose of liso-cel). This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02631044.
Findings
Between Jan 11, 2016, and July 5, 2019, 344 patients underwent leukapheresis for manufacture of CAR T cells (liso-cel), of whom 269 patients received at least one dose of liso-cel. Patients had received a median of three (range 1-8) previous lines of systemic treatment, with 260 (97%) patients having had at least two lines. 112 (42%) patients were aged 65 years or older, 181 (67%) had chemotherapy-refractory disease, and seven (3%) had secondary CNS involvement. Median follow-up for overall survival for all 344 patients who had leukapheresis was 18·8 months (95% CI 15·0-19·3). Overall safety and activity of liso-cel did not differ by dose level. The recommended target dose was 100 × 10 CAR T cells (50 × 10 CD8 and 50 × 10 CD4 CAR T cells). Of 256 patients included in the efficacy-evaluable set, an objective response was achieved by 186 (73%, 95% CI 66·8-78·0) patients and a complete response by 136 (53%, 46·8-59·4). The most common grade 3 or worse adverse events were neutropenia in 161 (60%) patients, anaemia in 101 (37%), and thrombocytopenia in 72 (27%). Cytokine release syndrome and neurological events occurred in 113 (42%) and 80 (30%) patients, respectively; grade 3 or worse cytokine release syndrome and neurological events occurred in six (2%) and 27 (10%) patients, respectively. Nine (6%) patients had a dose-limiting toxicity, including one patient who died from diffuse alveolar damage following a dose of 50 × 10 CAR T cells.
Interpretation
Use of liso-cel resulted in a high objective response rate, with a low incidence of grade 3 or worse cytokine release syndrome and neurological events in patients with relapsed or refractory large B-cell lymphomas, including those with diverse histological subtypes and high-risk features. Liso-cel is under further evaluation at first relapse in large B-cell lymphomas and as a treatment for other relapsed or refractory B-cell malignancies.
Funding
Juno Therapeutics, a Bristol-Myers Squibb Company.

Copyright © 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 31 Aug 2020; epub ahead of print
Abramson JS, Palomba ML, Gordon LI, Lunning MA, ... Li D, Siddiqi T
Lancet: 31 Aug 2020; epub ahead of print | PMID: 32888407
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Impact:
Abstract

Valaciclovir to prevent vertical transmission of cytomegalovirus after maternal primary infection during pregnancy: a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial.

Shahar-Nissan K, Pardo J, Peled O, Krause I, ... Hadar E, Amir J
Background
Cytomegalovirus is a common congenital infection, with high morbidity after an early primary maternal infection. No effective means exist to prevent viral transmission to the fetus. We aimed to investigate whether valaciclovir can prevent vertical transmission of cytomegalovirus to the fetus in pregnant women with a primary infection acquired early in pregnancy.
Methods
This prospective, randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial was done at the Infectious Feto-Maternal Clinic of Rabin Medical Center (Petach Tikvah, Israel). Pregnant women aged 18 years or older, with serological evidence of a primary cytomegalovirus infection acquired either periconceptionally or during the first trimester of pregnancy, were randomly assigned to oral valaciclovir (8 g per day, twice daily) or placebo from enrolment until amniocentesis at 21 or 22 gestational weeks. Randomisation was done separately for participants infected periconceptionally or during the first trimester and was done in blocks of four. Patients and researchers were masked to participant allocation throughout the entire study period. The primary endpoint was the rate of vertical transmission of cytomegalovirus. Statistical analyses were done according to per-protocol principles. The study was registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02351102.
Findings
Between Nov 15, 2015, and Oct 8, 2018, we enrolled and randomly assigned 100 patients to receive valaciclovir or placebo. Ten patients were excluded, five from each study group; therefore, the final analysis included 45 patients (all singletons) in the valaciclovir group and 45 patients (43 singletons and two sets of twins) in the placebo group. In the valaciclovir group, including both first trimester and periconceptional infections, five (11%) of 45 amniocenteses were positive for cytomegalovirus, compared with 14 (30%) of 47 amniocenteses in the placebo group (p=0·027; odds ratio 0·29, 95% CI 0·09-0·90 for vertical cytomegalovirus transmission). Among participants with a primary cytomegalovirus infection during the first trimester, a positive amniocentesis for cytomegalovirus was significantly less likely in the valaciclovir group (two [11%] of 19 amniocenteses) compared with the placebo group (11 [48%] of 23 amniocenteses; p=0·020. No clinically significant adverse events were reported.
Interpretation
Valaciclovir is effective in reducing the rate of fetal cytomegalovirus infection after maternal primary infection acquired early in pregnancy. Early treatment of pregnant women with primary infection might prevent termination of pregnancies or delivery of infants with congenital cytomegalovirus.
Funding
None.

Copyright © 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 11 Sep 2020; 396:779-785
Shahar-Nissan K, Pardo J, Peled O, Krause I, ... Hadar E, Amir J
Lancet: 11 Sep 2020; 396:779-785 | PMID: 32919517
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Impact:
Abstract

Mapping global trends in vaccine confidence and investigating barriers to vaccine uptake: a large-scale retrospective temporal modelling study.

de Figueiredo A, Simas C, Karafillakis E, Paterson P, Larson HJ
Background
There is growing evidence of vaccine delays or refusals due to a lack of trust in the importance, safety, or effectiveness of vaccines, alongside persisting access issues. Although immunisation coverage is reported administratively across the world, no similarly robust monitoring system exists for vaccine confidence. In this study, vaccine confidence was mapped across 149 countries between 2015 and 2019.
Methods
In this large-scale retrospective data-driven analysis, we examined global trends in vaccine confidence using data from 290 surveys done between September, 2015, and December, 2019, across 149 countries, and including 284 381 individuals. We used a Bayesian multinomial logit Gaussian process model to produce estimates of public perceptions towards the safety, importance, and effectiveness of vaccines. Associations between vaccine uptake and a large range of putative drivers of uptake, including vaccine confidence, socioeconomic status, and sources of trust, were determined using univariate Bayesian logistic regressions. Gibbs sampling was used for Bayesian model inference, with 95% Bayesian highest posterior density intervals used to capture uncertainty.
Findings
Between November, 2015, and December, 2019, we estimate that confidence in the importance, safety, and effectiveness of vaccines fell in Afghanistan, Indonesia, Pakistan, the Philippines, and South Korea. We found significant increases in respondents strongly disagreeing that vaccines are safe between 2015 and 2019 in six countries: Afghanistan, Azerbaijan, Indonesia, Nigeria, Pakistan, and Serbia. We find signs that confidence has improved between 2018 and 2019 in some EU member states, including Finland, France, Ireland, and Italy, with recent losses detected in Poland. Confidence in the importance of vaccines (rather than in their safety or effectiveness) had the strongest univariate association with vaccine uptake compared with other determinants considered. When a link was found between individuals\' religious beliefs and uptake, findings indicated that minority religious groups tended to have lower probabilities of uptake.
Interpretation
To our knowledge, this is the largest study of global vaccine confidence to date, allowing for cross-country comparisons and changes over time. Our findings highlight the importance of regular monitoring to detect emerging trends to prompt interventions to build and sustain vaccine confidence.
Funding
European Commission, Wellcome, and Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council.

Copyright © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 09 Sep 2020; epub ahead of print
de Figueiredo A, Simas C, Karafillakis E, Paterson P, Larson HJ
Lancet: 09 Sep 2020; epub ahead of print | PMID: 32919524
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Abstract

Complicated pneumonia in children.

de Benedictis FM, Kerem E, Chang AB, Colin AA, Zar HJ, Bush A

Complicated community-acquired pneumonia in a previously well child is a severe illness characterised by combinations of local complications (eg, parapneumonic effusion, empyema, necrotising pneumonia, and lung abscess) and systemic complications (eg, bacteraemia, metastatic infection, multiorgan failure, acute respiratory distress syndrome, disseminated intravascular coagulation, and, rarely, death). Complicated community-acquired pneumonia should be suspected in any child with pneumonia not responding to appropriate antibiotic treatment within 48-72 h. Common causative organisms are Streptococcus pneumoniae and Staphylococcus aureus. Patients have initial imaging with chest radiography and ultrasound, which can also be used to assess the lung parenchyma, to identify pleural fluid; CT scanning is not usually indicated. Complicated pneumonia is treated with a prolonged course of intravenous antibiotics, and then oral antibiotics. The initial choice of antibiotic is guided by local microbiological knowledge and by subsequent positive cultures and molecular testing, including on pleural fluid if a drainage procedure is done. Information from pleural space imaging and drainage should guide the decision on whether to administer intrapleural fibrinolytics. Most patients are treated by drainage and more extensive surgery is rarely needed; in any event, in low-income and middle-income countries, resources for extensive surgeries are scarce. The clinical course of complicated community-acquired pneumonia can be prolonged, especially when patients have necrotising pneumonia, but complete recovery is the usual outcome.

Copyright © 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 11 Sep 2020; 396:786-798
de Benedictis FM, Kerem E, Chang AB, Colin AA, Zar HJ, Bush A
Lancet: 11 Sep 2020; 396:786-798 | PMID: 32919518
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Impact:
Abstract

Neoadjuvant atezolizumab in combination with sequential nab-paclitaxel and anthracycline-based chemotherapy versus placebo and chemotherapy in patients with early-stage triple-negative breast cancer (IMpassion031): a randomised, double-blind, phase 3 trial.

Mittendorf EA, Zhang H, Barrios CH, Saji S, ... Chui SY, Harbeck N
Background
Preferred neoadjuvant regimens for early-stage triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) include anthracycline-cyclophosphamide and taxane-based chemotherapy. IMpassion031 compared efficacy and safety of atezolizumab versus placebo combined with nab-paclitaxel followed by doxorubicin plus cyclophosphamide as neoadjuvant treatment for early-stage TNBC.
Methods
This double-blind, randomised, phase 3 study enrolled patients in 75 academic and community sites in 13 countries. Patients aged 18 years or older with previously untreated stage II-III histologically documented TNBC were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive chemotherapy plus intravenous atezolizumab at 840 mg or placebo every 2 weeks. Chemotherapy comprised of nab-paclitaxel at 125 mg/m every week for 12 weeks followed by doxorubicin at 60 mg/m and cyclophosphamide at 600 mg/m every 2 weeks for 8 weeks, which was then followed by surgery. Stratification was by clinical breast cancer stage and programmed cell death ligand 1 (PD-L1) status. Co-primary endpoints were pathological complete response in all-randomised (ie, all randomly assigned patients in the intention-to-treat population) and PD-L1-positive (ie, patients with PD-L1-expressing tumour infiltrating immune cells covering ≥1% of tumour area) populations. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT03197935), Eudra (CT2016-004734-22), and the Japan Pharmaceutical Information Center (JapicCTI-173630), and is ongoing.
Findings
Between July 7, 2017, and Sept 24, 2019, 455 patients were recruited and assessed for eligibility. Of the 333 eligible patients, 165 were randomly assigned to receive atezolizumab plus chemotherapy and 168 to placebo plus chemotherapy. At data cutoff (April 3, 2020), median follow-up was 20·6 months (IQR 8·7-24·9) in the atezolizumab plus chemotherapy group and 19·8 months (8·1-24·5) in the placebo plus chemotherapy group. Pathological complete response was documented in 95 (58%, 95% CI 50-65) patients in the atezolizumab plus chemotherapy group and 69 (41%, 34-49) patients in the placebo plus chemotherapy group (rate difference 17%, 95% CI 6-27; one-sided p=0·0044 [significance boundary 0·0184]). In the PD-L1-positive population, pathological complete response was documented in 53 (69%, 95% CI 57-79) of 77 patients in the atezolizumab plus chemotherapy group versus 37 (49%, 38-61) of 75 patients in the placebo plus chemotherapy group (rate difference 20%, 95% CI 4-35; one-sided p=0·021 [significance boundary 0·0184]). In the neoadjuvant phase, grade 3-4 adverse events were balanced and treatment-related serious adverse events occurred in 37 (23%) and 26 (16%) patients, with one patient per group experiencing an unrelated grade 5 adverse event (traffic accident in the atezolizumab plus chemotherapy group and pneumonia in the placebo plus chemotherapy group).
Interpretation
In patients with early-stage TNBC, neoadjuvant treatment with atezolizumab in combination with nab-paclitaxel and anthracycline-based chemotherapy significantly improved pathological complete response rates with an acceptable safety profile.
Funding
F Hoffmann-La Roche/Genentech.

Copyright © 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 17 Sep 2020; epub ahead of print
Mittendorf EA, Zhang H, Barrios CH, Saji S, ... Chui SY, Harbeck N
Lancet: 17 Sep 2020; epub ahead of print | PMID: 32966830
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Impact:
Abstract

Self-expanding intra-annular versus commercially available transcatheter heart valves in high and extreme risk patients with severe aortic stenosis (PORTICO IDE): a randomised, controlled, non-inferiority trial.

Makkar RR, Cheng W, Waksman R, Satler LF, ... Bhatt DL, Fontana GP
Background
Randomised trial data assessing the safety and efficacy of the self-expanding intra-annular Portico transcatheter aortic valve system (Abbott Structural Heart, St Paul, MN, USA) compared with any commercially available valves are needed to compare performance among designs.
Methods
In this prospective, multicentre, non-inferiority, randomised controlled trial (the Portico Re-sheathable Transcatheter Aortic Valve System US Investigational Device Exemption trial [PORTICO IDE]), high and extreme risk patients with severe symptomatic aortic stenosis were recruited from 52 medical centres experienced in performing transcatheter aortic valve replacement in the USA and Australia. Patients were eligible if they were aged 21 years or older, in New York Heart Association functional class II or higher, and had severe native aortic stenosis. Eligible patients were randomly assigned (1:1) using permuted block randomisation (block sizes of 2 and 4) and stratified by clinical investigational site, surgical risk cohort, and vascular access method, to transcatheter aortic valve replacement with the first generation Portico valve and delivery system or a commercially available valve (either an intra-annular balloon-expandable Edwards-SAPIEN, SAPIEN XT, or SAPIEN 3 valve [Edwards LifeSciences, Irvine, CA, USA]; or a supra-annular self-expanding CoreValve, Evolut-R, or Evolut-PRO valve [Medtronic, Minneapolis, MN, USA]). Investigational site staff, implanting physician, and study participant were unmasked to treatment assignment. Core laboratories and clinical event assessors were masked to treatment allocation. The primary safety endpoint was a composite of all-cause mortality, disabling stroke, life-threatening bleeding requiring transfusion, acute kidney injury requiring dialysis, or major vascular complication at 30 days. The primary efficacy endpoint was all-cause mortality or disabling stroke at 1 year. Clinical outcomes and valve performance were assessed up to 2 years after the procedure. Primary analyses were by intention to treat and the Kaplan-Meier method to estimate event rates. The non-inferiority margin was 8·5% for primary safety and 8·0% for primary efficacy endpoints. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02000115, and is ongoing.
Findings
Between May 30 and Sept 12, 2014, and between Aug 21, 2015, and Oct 10, 2017, with recruitment paused for 11 months by the funder, we recruited 1034 patients, of whom 750 were eligible and randomly assigned to the Portico valve group (n=381) or commercially available valve group (n=369). Mean age was 83 years (SD 7) and 395 (52·7%) patients were female. For the primary safety endpoint at 30 days, the event rate was higher in the Portico valve group than in the commercial valve group (52 [13·8%] vs 35 [9·6%]; absolute difference 4·2, 95% CI -0·4 to 8·8 [upper confidence bound {UCB} 8·1%]; p=0·034, p=0·071). At 1 year, the rates of the primary efficacy endpoint were similar between the groups (55 [14·8%] in the Portico group vs 48 [13·4%] in the commercial valve group; difference 1·5%, 95% CI -3·6 to 6·5 [UCB 5·7%]; p=0·0058, p=0·50). At 2 years, rates of death (80 [22·3%] vs 70 [20·2%]; p=0·40) or disabling stroke (10 [3·1%] vs 16 [5·0%]; p=0·23) were similar between groups.
Interpretation
The Portico valve was associated with similar rates of death or disabling stroke at 2 years compared with commercial valves, but was associated with higher rates of the primary composite safety endpoint including death at 30 days. The first-generation Portico valve and delivery system did not offer advantages over other commercially available valves.
Funding
Abbott.

Copyright © 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 04 Sep 2020; 396:669-683
Makkar RR, Cheng W, Waksman R, Satler LF, ... Bhatt DL, Fontana GP
Lancet: 04 Sep 2020; 396:669-683 | PMID: 32593323
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Abstract

Extracorporeal membrane oxygenation support in COVID-19: an international cohort study of the Extracorporeal Life Support Organization registry.

Barbaro RP, MacLaren G, Boonstra PS, Iwashyna TJ, ... Brodie D,
Background
Multiple major health organisations recommend the use of extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) support for COVID-19-related acute hypoxaemic respiratory failure. However, initial reports of ECMO use in patients with COVID-19 described very high mortality and there have been no large, international cohort studies of ECMO for COVID-19 reported to date.
Methods
We used data from the Extracorporeal Life Support Organization (ELSO) Registry to characterise the epidemiology, hospital course, and outcomes of patients aged 16 years or older with confirmed COVID-19 who had ECMO support initiated between Jan 16 and May 1, 2020, at 213 hospitals in 36 countries. The primary outcome was in-hospital death in a time-to-event analysis assessed at 90 days after ECMO initiation. We applied a multivariable Cox model to examine whether patient and hospital factors were associated with in-hospital mortality.
Findings
Data for 1035 patients with COVID-19 who received ECMO support were included in this study. Of these, 67 (6%) remained hospitalised, 311 (30%) were discharged home or to an acute rehabilitation centre, 101 (10%) were discharged to a long-term acute care centre or unspecified location, 176 (17%) were discharged to another hospital, and 380 (37%) died. The estimated cumulative incidence of in-hospital mortality 90 days after the initiation of ECMO was 37·4% (95% CI 34·4-40·4). Mortality was 39% (380 of 968) in patients with a final disposition of death or hospital discharge. The use of ECMO for circulatory support was independently associated with higher in-hospital mortality (hazard ratio 1·89, 95% CI 1·20-2·97). In the subset of patients with COVID-19 receiving respiratory (venovenous) ECMO and characterised as having acute respiratory distress syndrome, the estimated cumulative incidence of in-hospital mortality 90 days after the initiation of ECMO was 38·0% (95% CI 34·6-41·5).
Interpretation
In patients with COVID-19 who received ECMO, both estimated mortality 90 days after ECMO and mortality in those with a final disposition of death or discharge were less than 40%. These data from 213 hospitals worldwide provide a generalisable estimate of ECMO mortality in the setting of COVID-19.
Funding
None.

Copyright © 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 24 Sep 2020; epub ahead of print
Barbaro RP, MacLaren G, Boonstra PS, Iwashyna TJ, ... Brodie D,
Lancet: 24 Sep 2020; epub ahead of print | PMID: 32987008
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Impact:
Abstract

Prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in a large nationwide sample of patients on dialysis in the USA: a cross-sectional study.

Anand S, Montez-Rath M, Han J, Bozeman J, ... Parsonnet J, Chertow GM
Background
Many patients receiving dialysis in the USA share the socioeconomic characteristics of underserved communities, and undergo routine monthly laboratory testing, facilitating a practical, unbiased, and repeatable assessment of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) seroprevalence.
Methods
For this cross-sectional study, in partnership with a central laboratory that receives samples from approximately 1300 dialysis facilities across the USA, we tested the remainder plasma of 28 503 randomly selected adult patients receiving dialysis in July, 2020, using a spike protein receptor binding domain total antibody chemiluminescence assay (100% sensitivity, 99·8% specificity). We extracted data on age, sex, race and ethnicity, and residence and facility ZIP codes from the anonymised electronic health records, linking patient-level residence data with cumulative and daily cases and deaths per 100 000 population and with nasal swab test positivity rates. We standardised prevalence estimates according to the overall US dialysis and adult population, and present estimates for four prespecified strata (age, sex, region, and race and ethnicity).
Findings
The sampled population had similar age, sex, and race and ethnicity distribution to the US dialysis population, with a higher proportion of older people, men, and people living in majority Black and Hispanic neighbourhoods than in the US adult population. Seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 was 8·0% (95% CI 7·7-8·4) in the sample, 8·3% (8·0-8·6) when standardised to the US dialysis population, and 9·3% (8·8-9·9) when standardised to the US adult population. When standardised to the US dialysis population, seroprevalence ranged from 3·5% (3·1-3·9) in the west to 27·2% (25·9-28·5) in the northeast. Comparing seroprevalent and case counts per 100 000 population, we found that 9·2% (8·7-9·8) of seropositive patients were diagnosed. When compared with other measures of SARS-CoV-2 spread, seroprevalence correlated best with deaths per 100 000 population (Spearman\'s ρ=0·77). Residents of non-Hispanic Black and Hispanic neighbourhoods experienced higher odds of seropositivity (odds ratio 3·9 [95% CI 3·4-4·6] and 2·3 [1·9-2·6], respectively) compared with residents of predominantly non-Hispanic white neighbourhoods. Residents of neighbourhoods in the highest population density quintile experienced increased odds of seropositivity (10·3 [8·7-12·2]) compared with residents of the lowest density quintile. County mobility restrictions that reduced workplace visits by at least 5% in early March, 2020, were associated with lower odds of seropositivity in July, 2020 (0·4 [0·3-0·5]) when compared with a reduction of less than 5%.
Interpretation
During the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, fewer than 10% of the US adult population formed antibodies against SARS-CoV-2, and fewer than 10% of those with antibodies were diagnosed. Public health efforts to limit SARS-CoV-2 spread need to especially target racial and ethnic minority and densely populated communities.
Funding
Ascend Clinical Laboratories.

Copyright © 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 24 Sep 2020; epub ahead of print
Anand S, Montez-Rath M, Han J, Bozeman J, ... Parsonnet J, Chertow GM
Lancet: 24 Sep 2020; epub ahead of print | PMID: 32987007
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Impact:
Abstract

Gabapentin for chronic pelvic pain in women (GaPP2): a multicentre, randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial.

Horne AW, Vincent K, Hewitt CA, Middleton LJ, ... Daniels JP,
Background
Chronic pelvic pain affects 2-24% of women worldwide and evidence for medical treatments is scarce. Gabapentin is effective in treating some chronic pain conditions. We aimed to measure the efficacy and safety of gabapentin in women with chronic pelvic pain and no obvious pelvic pathology.
Methods
We performed a multicentre, randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled randomised trial in 39 UK hospital centres. Eligible participants were women with chronic pelvic pain (with or without dysmenorrhoea or dyspareunia) of at least 3 months duration. Inclusion criteria were 18-50 years of age, use or willingness to use contraception to avoid pregnancy, and no obvious pelvic pathology at laparoscopy, which must have taken place at least 2 weeks before consent but less than 36 months previously. Participants were randomly assigned in a 1:1 ratio to receive gabapentin (titrated to a maximum dose of 2700 mg daily) or matching placebo for 16 weeks. The online randomisation system minimised allocations by presence or absence of dysmenorrhoea, psychological distress, current use of hormonal contraceptives, and hospital centre. The appearance, route, and administration of the assigned intervention were identical in both groups. Patients, clinicians, and research staff were unaware of the trial group assignments throughout the trial. Participants were unmasked once they had provided all outcome data at week 16-17, or sooner if a serious adverse event requiring knowledge of the study drug occurred. The dual primary outcome measures were worst and average pain scores assessed separately on a numerical rating scale in weeks 13-16 after randomisation, in the intention-to-treat population. Self-reported adverse events were assessed according to intention-to-treat principles. This trial is registered with the ISRCTN registry, ISCRTN77451762.
Findings
Participants were screened between Nov 30, 2015, and March 6, 2019, and 306 were randomly assigned (153 to gabapentin and 153 to placebo). There were no significant between-group differences in both worst and average numerical rating scale (NRS) pain scores at 13-16 weeks after randomisation. The mean worst NRS pain score was 7·1 (standard deviation [SD] 2·6) in the gabapentin group and 7·4 (SD 2·2) in the placebo group. Mean change from baseline was -1·4 (SD 2·3) in the gabapentin group and -1·2 (SD 2·1) in the placebo group (adjusted mean difference -0·20 [97·5% CI -0·81 to 0·42]; p=0·47). The mean average NRS pain score was 4·3 (SD 2·3) in the gabapentin group and 4·5 (SD 2·2) in the placebo group. Mean change from baseline was -1·1 (SD 2·0) in the gabapentin group and -0·9 (SD 1·8) in the placebo group (adjusted mean difference -0·18 [97·5% CI -0·71 to 0·35]; p=0·45). More women had a serious adverse event in the gabapentin group than in the placebo group (10 [7%] of 153 in the gabapentin group compared with 3 [2%] of 153 in the placebo group; p=0·04). Dizziness, drowsiness, and visual disturbances were more common in the gabapentin group.
Interpretation
This study was adequately powered, but treatment with gabapentin did not result in significantly lower pain scores in women with chronic pelvic pain, and was associated with higher rates of side-effects than placebo. Given the increasing reports of abuse and evidence of potential harms associated with gabapentin use, it is important that clinicians consider alternative treatment options to off-label gabapentin for the management of chronic pelvic pain and no obvious pelvic pathology.
Funding
National Institute for Health Research.

Copyright © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 25 Sep 2020; 396:909-917
Horne AW, Vincent K, Hewitt CA, Middleton LJ, ... Daniels JP,
Lancet: 25 Sep 2020; 396:909-917 | PMID: 32979978
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Impact:
Abstract

Lessons learnt from easing COVID-19 restrictions: an analysis of countries and regions in Asia Pacific and Europe.

Han E, Tan MMJ, Turk E, Sridhar D, ... McKee M, Legido-Quigley H

The COVID-19 pandemic is an unprecedented global crisis. Many countries have implemented restrictions on population movement to slow the spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 and prevent health systems from becoming overwhelmed; some have instituted full or partial lockdowns. However, lockdowns and other extreme restrictions cannot be sustained for the long term in the hope that there will be an effective vaccine or treatment for COVID-19. Governments worldwide now face the common challenge of easing lockdowns and restrictions while balancing various health, social, and economic concerns. To facilitate cross-country learning, this Health Policy paper uses an adapted framework to examine the approaches taken by nine high-income countries and regions that have started to ease COVID-19 restrictions: five in the Asia Pacific region (ie, Hong Kong [Special Administrative Region], Japan, New Zealand, Singapore, and South Korea) and four in Europe (ie, Germany, Norway, Spain, and the UK). This comparative analysis presents important lessons to be learnt from the experiences of these countries and regions. Although the future of the virus is unknown at present, countries should continue to share their experiences, shield populations who are at risk, and suppress transmission to save lives.

Copyright © 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 23 Sep 2020; epub ahead of print
Han E, Tan MMJ, Turk E, Sridhar D, ... McKee M, Legido-Quigley H
Lancet: 23 Sep 2020; epub ahead of print | PMID: 32979936
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Impact:
Abstract

Adjuvant or early salvage radiotherapy for the treatment of localised and locally advanced prostate cancer: a prospectively planned systematic review and meta-analysis of aggregate data.

Vale CL, Fisher D, Kneebone A, Parker C, ... Tierney JF,
Background
It is unclear whether adjuvant or early salvage radiotherapy following radical prostatectomy is more appropriate for men who present with localised or locally advanced prostate cancer. We aimed to prospectively plan a systematic review of randomised controlled trials (RCTs) comparing these radiotherapy approaches.
Methods
We used a prospective framework for adaptive meta-analysis (FAME), starting the review process while eligible trials were ongoing. RCTs were eligible if they aimed to compare immediate adjuvant radiotherapy versus early salvage radiotherapy, following radical prostatectomy in men (age ≥18 years) with intermediate-risk or high-risk, localised or locally advanced prostate cancer. We searched trial registers and conference proceedings until July 8, 2020, to identify eligible RCTs. By establishing the ARTISTIC collaboration with relevant trialists, we were able to anticipate when eligible trial results would emerge, and we developed and registered a protocol with PROSPERO before knowledge of the trial results (CRD42019132669). We used a harmonised definition of event-free survival, as the time from randomisation until the first evidence of either biochemical progression (prostate-specific antigen [PSA] ≥0·4 ng/mL and rising after completion of any postoperative radiotherapy), clinical or radiological progression, initiation of a non-trial treatment, death from prostate cancer, or a PSA level of at least 2·0 ng/mL at any time after randomisation. We predicted when we would have sufficient power to assess whether adjuvant radiotherapy was superior to early salvage radiotherapy. Investigators supplied results for event-free survival, both overall and within predefined patient subgroups. Hazard ratios (HRs) for the effects of radiotherapy timing on event-free survival and subgroup interactions were combined using fixed-effect meta-analysis.
Findings
We identified three eligible trials and were able to obtain updated results for event-free survival for 2153 patients recruited between November, 2007, and December, 2016. Median follow-up ranged from 60 months to 78 months, with a maximum follow-up of 132 months. 1075 patients were randomly assigned to receive adjuvant radiotherapy and 1078 to a policy of early salvage radiotherapy, of whom 421 (39·1%) had commenced treatment at the time of analysis. Patient characteristics were balanced within trials and overall. Median age was similar between trials at 64 or 65 years (with IQRs ranging from 59 to 68 years) across the three trials and most patients (1671 [77·6%]) had a Gleason score of 7. All trials were assessed as having low risk of bias. Based on 270 events, the meta-analysis showed no evidence that event-free survival was improved with adjuvant radiotherapy compared with early salvage radiotherapy (HR 0·95, 95% CI 0·75-1·21; p=0·70), with only a 1 percentage point (95% CI -2 to 3) change in 5-year event-free survival (89% vs 88%). Results were consistent across trials (heterogeneity p=0·18; I=42%).
Interpretation
This collaborative and prospectively designed systematic review and meta-analysis suggests that adjuvant radiotherapy does not improve event-free survival in men with localised or locally advanced prostate cancer. Until data on long-term outcomes are available, early salvage treatment would seem the preferable treatment policy as it offers the opportunity to spare many men radiotherapy and its associated side-effects.
Funding
UK Medical Research Council.

Copyright © 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 27 Sep 2020; epub ahead of print
Vale CL, Fisher D, Kneebone A, Parker C, ... Tierney JF,
Lancet: 27 Sep 2020; epub ahead of print | PMID: 33002431
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Impact:
Abstract

Timing of radiotherapy after radical prostatectomy (RADICALS-RT): a randomised, controlled phase 3 trial.

Parker CC, Clarke NW, Cook AD, Kynaston HG, ... Parmar MKB, Sydes MR
Background
The optimal timing of radiotherapy after radical prostatectomy for prostate cancer is uncertain. We aimed to compare the efficacy and safety of adjuvant radiotherapy versus an observation policy with salvage radiotherapy for prostate-specific antigen (PSA) biochemical progression.
Methods
We did a randomised controlled trial enrolling patients with at least one risk factor (pathological T-stage 3 or 4, Gleason score of 7-10, positive margins, or preoperative PSA ≥10 ng/mL) for biochemical progression after radical prostatectomy (RADICALS-RT). The study took place in trial-accredited centres in Canada, Denmark, Ireland, and the UK. Patients were randomly assigned in a 1:1 ratio to adjuvant radiotherapy or an observation policy with salvage radiotherapy for PSA biochemical progression (PSA ≥0·1 ng/mL or three consecutive rises). Masking was not deemed feasible. Stratification factors were Gleason score, margin status, planned radiotherapy schedule (52·5 Gy in 20 fractions or 66 Gy in 33 fractions), and centre. The primary outcome measure was freedom from distant metastases, designed with 80% power to detect an improvement from 90% with salvage radiotherapy (control) to 95% at 10 years with adjuvant radiotherapy. We report on biochemical progression-free survival, freedom from non-protocol hormone therapy, safety, and patient-reported outcomes. Standard survival analysis methods were used. A hazard ratio (HR) of less than 1 favoured adjuvant radiotherapy. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT00541047.
Findings
Between Nov 22, 2007, and Dec 30, 2016, 1396 patients were randomly assigned, 699 (50%) to salvage radiotherapy and 697 (50%) to adjuvant radiotherapy. Allocated groups were balanced with a median age of 65 years (IQR 60-68). Median follow-up was 4·9 years (IQR 3·0-6·1). 649 (93%) of 697 participants in the adjuvant radiotherapy group reported radiotherapy within 6 months; 228 (33%) of 699 in the salvage radiotherapy group reported radiotherapy within 8 years after randomisation. With 169 events, 5-year biochemical progression-free survival was 85% for those in the adjuvant radiotherapy group and 88% for those in the salvage radiotherapy group (HR 1·10, 95% CI 0·81-1·49; p=0·56). Freedom from non-protocol hormone therapy at 5 years was 93% for those in the adjuvant radiotherapy group versus 92% for those in the salvage radiotherapy group (HR 0·88, 95% CI 0·58-1·33; p=0·53). Self-reported urinary incontinence was worse at 1 year for those in the adjuvant radiotherapy group (mean score 4·8 vs 4·0; p=0·0023). Grade 3-4 urethral stricture within 2 years was reported in 6% of individuals in the adjuvant radiotherapy group versus 4% in the salvage radiotherapy group (p=0·020).
Interpretation
These initial results do not support routine administration of adjuvant radiotherapy after radical prostatectomy. Adjuvant radiotherapy increases the risk of urinary morbidity. An observation policy with salvage radiotherapy for PSA biochemical progression should be the current standard after radical prostatectomy.
Funding
Cancer Research UK, MRC Clinical Trials Unit, and Canadian Cancer Society.

Copyright © 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 27 Sep 2020; epub ahead of print
Parker CC, Clarke NW, Cook AD, Kynaston HG, ... Parmar MKB, Sydes MR
Lancet: 27 Sep 2020; epub ahead of print | PMID: 33002429
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Abstract

Management of adults with primary frozen shoulder in secondary care (UK FROST): a multicentre, pragmatic, three-arm, superiority randomised clinical trial.

Rangan A, Brealey SD, Keding A, Corbacho B, ... Toye F,
Background
Manipulation under anaesthesia and arthroscopic capsular release are costly and invasive treatments for frozen shoulder, but their effectiveness remains uncertain. We compared these two surgical interventions with early structured physiotherapy plus steroid injection.
Methods
In this multicentre, pragmatic, three-arm, superiority randomised trial, patients referred to secondary care for treatment of primary frozen shoulder were recruited from 35 hospital sites in the UK. Participants were adults (≥18 years) with unilateral frozen shoulder, characterised by restriction of passive external rotation (≥50%) in the affected shoulder. Participants were randomly assigned (2:2:1) to receive manipulation under anaesthesia, arthroscopic capsular release, or early structured physiotherapy. In manipulation under anaesthesia, the surgeon manipulated the affected shoulder to stretch and tear the tight capsule while the participant was under general anaesthesia, supplemented by a steroid injection. Arthroscopic capsular release, also done under general anaesthesia, involved surgically dividing the contracted anterior capsule in the rotator interval, followed by manipulation, with optional steroid injection. Both forms of surgery were followed by postprocedural physiotherapy. Early structured physiotherapy involved mobilisation techniques and a graduated home exercise programme supplemented by a steroid injection. Both early structured physiotherapy and postprocedural physiotherapy involved 12 sessions during up to 12 weeks. The primary outcome was the Oxford Shoulder Score (OSS; 0-48) at 12 months after randomisation, analysed by initial randomisation group. We sought a target difference of 5 OSS points between physiotherapy and either form of surgery, or 4 points between manipulation and capsular release. The trial registration is ISRCTN48804508.
Findings
Between April 1, 2015, and Dec 31, 2017, we screened 914 patients, of whom 503 (55%) were randomly assigned. At 12 months, OSS data were available for 189 (94%) of 201 participants assigned to manipulation (mean estimate 38·3 points, 95% CI 36·9 to 39·7), 191 (94%) of 203 participants assigned to capsular release (40·3 points, 38·9 to 41·7), and 93 (94%) of 99 participants assigned to physiotherapy (37·2 points, 35·3 to 39·2). The mean group differences were 2·01 points (0·10 to 3·91) between the capsular release and manipulation groups, 3·06 points (0·71 to 5·41) between capsular release and physiotherapy, and 1·05 points (-1·28 to 3·39) between manipulation and physiotherapy. Eight serious adverse events were reported with capsular release and two with manipulation. At a willingness-to-pay threshold of £20 000 per quality-adjusted life-year, manipulation under anaesthesia had the highest probability of being cost-effective (0·8632, compared with 0·1366 for physiotherapy and 0·0002 for capsular release).
Interpretation
All mean differences on the assessment of shoulder pain and function (OSS) at the primary endpoint of 12 months were less than the target differences. Therefore, none of the three interventions were clinically superior. Arthoscopic capsular release carried higher risks, and manipulation under anaesthesia was the most cost-effective.
Funding
The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

Copyright © 2020 The Author(s). Publishedx by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 02 Oct 2020; 396:977-989
Rangan A, Brealey SD, Keding A, Corbacho B, ... Toye F,
Lancet: 02 Oct 2020; 396:977-989 | PMID: 33010843
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Abstract

Plasma ACE2 and risk of death or cardiometabolic diseases: a case-cohort analysis.

Narula S, Yusuf S, Chong M, Ramasundarahettige C, ... Pigeyre M, Paré G
Background
Angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) is an endogenous counter-regulator of the renin-angiotensin hormonal cascade. We assessed whether plasma ACE2 concentrations were associated with greater risk of death or cardiovascular disease events.
Methods
We used data from the Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology (PURE) prospective study to conduct a case-cohort analysis within a subset of PURE participants (from 14 countries across five continents: Africa, Asia, Europe, North America, and South America). We measured plasma concentrations of ACE2 and assessed potential determinants of plasma ACE2 levels as well as the association of ACE2 with cardiovascular events.
Findings
We included 10 753 PURE participants in our study. Increased concentration of plasma ACE2 was associated with increased risk of total deaths (hazard ratio [HR] 1·35 per 1 SD increase [95% CI 1·29-1·43]) with similar increases in cardiovascular and non-cardiovascular deaths. Plasma ACE2 concentration was also associated with higher risk of incident heart failure (HR 1·27 per 1 SD increase [1·10-1·46]), myocardial infarction (HR 1·23 per 1 SD increase [1·13-1·33]), stroke (HR 1·21 per 1 SD increase [1·10-1·32]) and diabetes (HR 1·44 per 1 SD increase [1·36-1·52]). These findings were independent of age, sex, ancestry, and traditional cardiac risk factors. With the exception of incident heart failure events, the independent relationship of ACE2 with the clinical endpoints, including death, remained robust after adjustment for BNP. The highest-ranked determinants of ACE2 concentrations were sex, geographic ancestry, and body-mass index (BMI). When compared with clinical risk factors (smoking, diabetes, blood pressure, lipids, and BMI), ACE2 was the highest ranked predictor of death, and superseded several risk factors as a predictor of heart failure, stroke, and myocardial infarction.
Interpretation
Increased plasma ACE2 concentration was associated with increased risk of major cardiovascular events in a global study.
Funding
Canadian Institute of Health Research, Heart & Stroke Foundation of Canada, and Bayer.

Copyright © 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 02 Oct 2020; 396:968-976
Narula S, Yusuf S, Chong M, Ramasundarahettige C, ... Pigeyre M, Paré G
Lancet: 02 Oct 2020; 396:968-976 | PMID: 33010842
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Abstract

Lopinavir-ritonavir in patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19 (RECOVERY): a randomised, controlled, open-label, platform trial.


Background
Lopinavir-ritonavir has been proposed as a treatment for COVID-19 on the basis of in vitro activity, preclinical studies, and observational studies. Here, we report the results of a randomised trial to assess whether lopinavir-ritonavir improves outcomes in patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19.
Methods
In this randomised, controlled, open-label, platform trial, a range of possible treatments was compared with usual care in patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19. The trial is underway at 176 hospitals in the UK. Eligible and consenting patients were randomly allocated to either usual standard of care alone or usual standard of care plus lopinavir-ritonavir (400 mg and 100 mg, respectively) by mouth for 10 days or until discharge (or one of the other RECOVERY treatment groups: hydroxychloroquine, dexamethasone, or azithromycin) using web-based simple (unstratified) randomisation with allocation concealment. Randomisation to usual care was twice that of any of the active treatment groups (eg, 2:1 in favour of usual care if the patient was eligible for only one active group, 2:1:1 if the patient was eligible for two active groups). The primary outcome was 28-day all-cause mortality. Analyses were done on an intention-to-treat basis in all randomly assigned participants. The trial is registered with ISRCTN, 50189673, and ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04381936.
Findings
Between March 19, 2020, and June 29, 2020, 1616 patients were randomly allocated to receive lopinavir-ritonavir and 3424 patients to receive usual care. Overall, 374 (23%) patients allocated to lopinavir-ritonavir and 767 (22%) patients allocated to usual care died within 28 days (rate ratio 1·03, 95% CI 0·91-1·17; p=0·60). Results were consistent across all prespecified subgroups of patients. We observed no significant difference in time until discharge alive from hospital (median 11 days [IQR 5 to >28] in both groups) or the proportion of patients discharged from hospital alive within 28 days (rate ratio 0·98, 95% CI 0·91-1·05; p=0·53). Among patients not on invasive mechanical ventilation at baseline, there was no significant difference in the proportion who met the composite endpoint of invasive mechanical ventilation or death (risk ratio 1·09, 95% CI 0·99-1·20; p=0·092).
Interpretation
In patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19, lopinavir-ritonavir was not associated with reductions in 28-day mortality, duration of hospital stay, or risk of progressing to invasive mechanical ventilation or death. These findings do not support the use of lopinavir-ritonavir for treatment of patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19.
Funding
Medical Research Council and National Institute for Health Research.

Copyright © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 04 Oct 2020; epub ahead of print
Lancet: 04 Oct 2020; epub ahead of print | PMID: 33031764
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Abstract

Redevelopment and validation of the SYNTAX score II to individualise decision making between percutaneous and surgical revascularisation in patients with complex coronary artery disease: secondary analysis of the multicentre randomised controlled SYNTAXES trial with external cohort validation.

Takahashi K, Serruys PW, Fuster V, Farkouh ME, ... van Klaveren D,
Background
Randomised controlled trials are considered the gold standard for testing the efficacy of novel therapeutic interventions, and typically report the average treatment effect as a summary result. As the result of treatment can vary between patients, basing treatment decisions for individual patients on the overall average treatment effect could be suboptimal. We aimed to develop an individualised decision making tool to select an optimal revascularisation strategy in patients with complex coronary artery disease.
Methods
The SYNTAX Extended Survival (SYNTAXES) study is an investigator-driven extension follow-up of a multicentre, randomised controlled trial done in 85 hospitals across 18 North American and European countries between March, 2005, and April, 2007. Patients with de-novo three-vessel and left main coronary artery disease were randomly assigned (1:1) to either the percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) group or coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) group. The SYNTAXES study ascertained 10-year all-cause deaths. We used Cox regression to develop a clinical prognostic index for predicting death over a 10-year period, which was combined, in a second stage, with assigned treatment (PCI or CABG) and two prespecified effect-modifiers, which were selected on the basis of previous evidence: disease type (three-vessel disease or left main coronary artery disease) and anatomical SYNTAX score. We used similar techniques to develop a model to predict the 5-year risk of major adverse cardiovascular events (defined as a composite of all-cause death, non-fatal stroke, or non-fatal myocardial infarction) in patients receiving PCI or CABG. We then assessed the ability of these models to predict the risk of death or a major adverse cardiovascular event, and their differences (ie, the estimated benefit of CABG versus PCI by calculating the absolute risk difference between the two strategies) by cross-validation with the SYNTAX trial (n=1800 participants) and external validation in the pooled population (n=3380 participants) of the FREEDOM, BEST, and PRECOMBAT trials. The concordance (C)-index was used to measure discriminative ability, and calibration plots were used to assess the degree of agreement between predictions and observations.
Findings
At cross-validation, the newly developed SYNTAX score II, termed SYNTAX score II 2020, showed a helpful discriminative ability in both treatment groups for predicting 10-year all-cause deaths (C-index=0·73 [95% CI 0·69-0·76] for PCI and 0·73 [0·69-0·76] for CABG) and 5-year major adverse cardiovascular events (C-index=0·65 [0·61-0·69] for PCI and C-index=0·71 [0·67-0·75] for CABG). At external validation, the SYNTAX score II 2020 showed helpful discrimination (C-index=0·67 [0·63-0·70] for PCI and C-index=0·62 [0·58-0·66] for CABG) and good calibration for predicting 5-year major adverse cardiovascular events. The estimated treatment benefit of CABG over PCI varied substantially among patients in the trial population, and the benefit predictions were well calibrated.
Interpretation
The SYNTAX score II 2020 for predicting 10-year deaths and 5-year major adverse cardiovascular events can help to identify individuals who will benefit from either CABG or PCI, thereby supporting heart teams, patients, and their families to select optimal revascularisation strategies.
Funding
The German Heart Research Foundation and the Patient-Centered Outcomes Research Institute.

Copyright © 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 07 Oct 2020; epub ahead of print
Takahashi K, Serruys PW, Fuster V, Farkouh ME, ... van Klaveren D,
Lancet: 07 Oct 2020; epub ahead of print | PMID: 33038944
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Abstract

Irritable bowel syndrome.

Ford AC, Sperber AD, Corsetti M, Camilleri M

Irritable bowel syndrome is a functional gastrointestinal disorder with symptoms including abdominal pain associated with a change in stool form or frequency. The condition affects between 5% and 10% of otherwise healthy individuals at any one point in time and, in most people, runs a relapsing and remitting course. The best described risk factor is acute enteric infection, but irritable bowel syndrome is also more common in people with psychological comorbidity and in young adult women than in the rest of the general population. The pathophysiology of irritable bowel syndrome is incompletely understood, but it is well established that there is disordered communication between the gut and the brain, leading to motility disturbances, visceral hypersensitivity, and altered CNS processing. Other less reproducible mechanisms might include genetic associations, alterations in gastrointestinal microbiota, and disturbances in mucosal and immune function. In most people, diagnosis can be made on the basis of clinical history with limited and judicious use of investigations, unless alarm symptoms such as weight loss or rectal bleeding are present, or there is a family history of inflammatory bowel disease or coeliac disease. Once the diagnosis is made, an empathetic approach is key and can improve quality of life and symptoms, and reduce health-care expenditure. The mainstays of treatment include patient education about the condition, dietary changes, soluble fibre, and antispasmodic drugs. Other treatments tend to be reserved for people with severe symptoms and include central neuromodulators, intestinal secretagogues, drugs acting on opioid or 5-HT receptors, or minimally absorbed antibiotics (all of which are selected according to predominant bowel habit), as well as psychological therapies. Increased understanding of the pathophysiology of irritable bowel syndrome in the past 10 years has led to a healthy pipeline of novel drugs in development.

Copyright © 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 08 Oct 2020; epub ahead of print
Ford AC, Sperber AD, Corsetti M, Camilleri M
Lancet: 08 Oct 2020; epub ahead of print | PMID: 33049223
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Abstract

Functional dyspepsia.

Ford AC, Mahadeva S, Carbone MF, Lacy BE, Talley NJ

Dyspepsia is a complex of symptoms referable to the gastroduodenal region of the gastrointestinal tract and includes epigastric pain or burning, postprandial fullness, or early satiety. Approximately 80% of individuals with dyspepsia have no structural explanation for their symptoms and have functional dyspepsia. Functional dyspepsia affects up to 16% of otherwise healthy individuals in the general population. Risk factors include psychological comorbidity, acute gastroenteritis, female sex, smoking, use of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs, and Helicobacter pylori infection. The pathophysiology remains incompletely understood, but it is probably related to disordered communication between the gut and the brain, leading to motility disturbances, visceral hypersensitivity, and alterations in gastrointestinal microbiota, mucosal and immune function, and CNS processing. Although technically a normal endoscopy is required to diagnose functional dyspepsia, the utility of endoscopy in all patients with typical symptoms is minimal; its use should be restricted to people aged 55 years and older, or to those with concerning features, such as weight loss or vomiting. As a result of our incomplete understanding of its pathophysiology, functional dyspepsia is difficult to treat and, in most patients, the condition is chronic and the natural history is one of fluctuating symptoms. Eradication therapy should be offered to patients with functional dyspepsia who test positive for Helicobacter pylori. Other therapies with evidence of effectiveness include proton pump inhibitors, histamine-2 receptor antagonists, prokinetics, and central neuromodulators. The role of psychological therapies is uncertain. As our understanding of the pathophysiology of functional dyspepsia increases, it is probable that the next decade will see the emergence of truly disease-modifying therapies for the first time.

Copyright © 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 08 Oct 2020; epub ahead of print
Ford AC, Mahadeva S, Carbone MF, Lacy BE, Talley NJ
Lancet: 08 Oct 2020; epub ahead of print | PMID: 33049222
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Impact:
Abstract

Functional gastrointestinal disorders: advances in understanding and management.

Black CJ, Drossman DA, Talley NJ, Ruddy J, Ford AC

Gastrointestinal symptoms are highly prevalent, but many people who have them will have no organic explanation for their symptoms. Most of these people will be labelled as having a functional gastrointestinal disorder, such as irritable bowel syndrome, functional dyspepsia, or functional constipation. These conditions affect up to 40% of people at any one point in time, and two-thirds of these people will have chronic, fluctuating symptoms. The pathophysiology of functional gastrointestinal disorders is complex, but involves bidirectional dysregulation of gut-brain interaction (via the gut-brain axis), as well as microbial dysbiosis within the gut, altered mucosal immune function, visceral hypersensitivity, and abnormal gastrointestinal motility. Hence, nomenclature refers to the conditions as disorders of gut-brain interaction. Psychological comorbidity is common; however, whether or not this predates, or is driven by, symptoms is not clear. Patients with functional gastrointestinal disorders can feel stigmatised, and often this diagnosis is not communicated effectively by physicians, nor is education provided. Prompt identification and treatment of these conditions is crucial as they have a considerable impact on health-care systems and society as a whole because of repeated consultations, unnecessary investigations and surgeries, prescriptions and over-the-counter medicine use, and impaired health-related quality of life and ability to work. Symptom-based criteria are used to make a diagnosis, with judicious use of limited investigations in some patients. The general principles of treatment are based on a biopsychosocial understanding and involve management of physical symptoms and, if present, psychological comorbidity. In the future, treatment approaches to functional gastrointestinal disorders are likely to become more personalised, based not only on symptoms but also underlying pathophysiology and psychology.

Copyright © 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 08 Oct 2020; epub ahead of print
Black CJ, Drossman DA, Talley NJ, Ruddy J, Ford AC
Lancet: 08 Oct 2020; epub ahead of print | PMID: 33049221
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Impact:
Abstract

Global burden of 87 risk factors in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.


Background
Rigorous analysis of levels and trends in exposure to leading risk factors and quantification of their effect on human health are important to identify where public health is making progress and in which cases current efforts are inadequate. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 provides a standardised and comprehensive assessment of the magnitude of risk factor exposure, relative risk, and attributable burden of disease.
Methods
GBD 2019 estimated attributable mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years of life lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 87 risk factors and combinations of risk factors, at the global level, regionally, and for 204 countries and territories. GBD uses a hierarchical list of risk factors so that specific risk factors (eg, sodium intake), and related aggregates (eg, diet quality), are both evaluated. This method has six analytical steps. (1) We included 560 risk-outcome pairs that met criteria for convincing or probable evidence on the basis of research studies. 12 risk-outcome pairs included in GBD 2017 no longer met inclusion criteria and 47 risk-outcome pairs for risks already included in GBD 2017 were added based on new evidence. (2) Relative risks were estimated as a function of exposure based on published systematic reviews, 81 systematic reviews done for GBD 2019, and meta-regression. (3) Levels of exposure in each age-sex-location-year included in the study were estimated based on all available data sources using spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression method, or alternative methods. (4) We determined, from published trials or cohort studies, the level of exposure associated with minimum risk, called the theoretical minimum risk exposure level. (5) Attributable deaths, YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs were computed by multiplying population attributable fractions (PAFs) by the relevant outcome quantity for each age-sex-location-year. (6) PAFs and attributable burden for combinations of risk factors were estimated taking into account mediation of different risk factors through other risk factors. Across all six analytical steps, 30 652 distinct data sources were used in the analysis. Uncertainty in each step of the analysis was propagated into the final estimates of attributable burden. Exposure levels for dichotomous, polytomous, and continuous risk factors were summarised with use of the summary exposure value to facilitate comparisons over time, across location, and across risks. Because the entire time series from 1990 to 2019 has been re-estimated with use of consistent data and methods, these results supersede previously published GBD estimates of attributable burden.
Findings
The largest declines in risk exposure from 2010 to 2019 were among a set of risks that are strongly linked to social and economic development, including household air pollution; unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing; and child growth failure. Global declines also occurred for tobacco smoking and lead exposure. The largest increases in risk exposure were for ambient particulate matter pollution, drug use, high fasting plasma glucose, and high body-mass index. In 2019, the leading Level 2 risk factor globally for attributable deaths was high systolic blood pressure, which accounted for 10·8 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 9·51-12·1) deaths (19·2% [16·9-21·3] of all deaths in 2019), followed by tobacco (smoked, second-hand, and chewing), which accounted for 8·71 million (8·12-9·31) deaths (15·4% [14·6-16·2] of all deaths in 2019). The leading Level 2 risk factor for attributable DALYs globally in 2019 was child and maternal malnutrition, which largely affects health in the youngest age groups and accounted for 295 million (253-350) DALYs (11·6% [10·3-13·1] of all global DALYs that year). The risk factor burden varied considerably in 2019 between age groups and locations. Among children aged 0-9 years, the three leading detailed risk factors for attributable DALYs were all related to malnutrition. Iron deficiency was the leading risk factor for those aged 10-24 years, alcohol use for those aged 25-49 years, and high systolic blood pressure for those aged 50-74 years and 75 years and older.
Interpretation
Overall, the record for reducing exposure to harmful risks over the past three decades is poor. Success with reducing smoking and lead exposure through regulatory policy might point the way for a stronger role for public policy on other risks in addition to continued efforts to provide information on risk factor harm to the general public.
Funding
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Copyright © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 16 Oct 2020; 396:1223-1249
Lancet: 16 Oct 2020; 396:1223-1249 | PMID: 33069327
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Impact:
Abstract

Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.


Background
In an era of shifting global agendas and expanded emphasis on non-communicable diseases and injuries along with communicable diseases, sound evidence on trends by cause at the national level is essential. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) provides a systematic scientific assessment of published, publicly available, and contributed data on incidence, prevalence, and mortality for a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of diseases and injuries.
Methods
GBD estimates incidence, prevalence, mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to 369 diseases and injuries, for two sexes, and for 204 countries and territories. Input data were extracted from censuses, household surveys, civil registration and vital statistics, disease registries, health service use, air pollution monitors, satellite imaging, disease notifications, and other sources. Cause-specific death rates and cause fractions were calculated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression. Cause-specific deaths were adjusted to match the total all-cause deaths calculated as part of the GBD population, fertility, and mortality estimates. Deaths were multiplied by standard life expectancy at each age to calculate YLLs. A Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, was used to ensure consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, excess mortality, and cause-specific mortality for most causes. Prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights for mutually exclusive sequelae of diseases and injuries to calculate YLDs. We considered results in the context of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and fertility rate in females younger than 25 years. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered 1000 draw values of the posterior distribution.
Findings
Global health has steadily improved over the past 30 years as measured by age-standardised DALY rates. After taking into account population growth and ageing, the absolute number of DALYs has remained stable. Since 2010, the pace of decline in global age-standardised DALY rates has accelerated in age groups younger than 50 years compared with the 1990-2010 time period, with the greatest annualised rate of decline occurring in the 0-9-year age group. Six infectious diseases were among the top ten causes of DALYs in children younger than 10 years in 2019: lower respiratory infections (ranked second), diarrhoeal diseases (third), malaria (fifth), meningitis (sixth), whooping cough (ninth), and sexually transmitted infections (which, in this age group, is fully accounted for by congenital syphilis; ranked tenth). In adolescents aged 10-24 years, three injury causes were among the top causes of DALYs: road injuries (ranked first), self-harm (third), and interpersonal violence (fifth). Five of the causes that were in the top ten for ages 10-24 years were also in the top ten in the 25-49-year age group: road injuries (ranked first), HIV/AIDS (second), low back pain (fourth), headache disorders (fifth), and depressive disorders (sixth). In 2019, ischaemic heart disease and stroke were the top-ranked causes of DALYs in both the 50-74-year and 75-years-and-older age groups. Since 1990, there has been a marked shift towards a greater proportion of burden due to YLDs from non-communicable diseases and injuries. In 2019, there were 11 countries where non-communicable disease and injury YLDs constituted more than half of all disease burden. Decreases in age-standardised DALY rates have accelerated over the past decade in countries at the lower end of the SDI range, while improvements have started to stagnate or even reverse in countries with higher SDI.
Interpretation
As disability becomes an increasingly large component of disease burden and a larger component of health expenditure, greater research and development investment is needed to identify new, more effective intervention strategies. With a rapidly ageing global population, the demands on health services to deal with disabling outcomes, which increase with age, will require policy makers to anticipate these changes. The mix of universal and more geographically specific influences on health reinforces the need for regular reporting on population health in detail and by underlying cause to help decision makers to identify success stories of disease control to emulate, as well as opportunities to improve.
Funding
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Copyright © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 16 Oct 2020; 396:1204-1222
Lancet: 16 Oct 2020; 396:1204-1222 | PMID: 33069326
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Impact:
Abstract

Global age-sex-specific fertility, mortality, healthy life expectancy (HALE), and population estimates in 204 countries and territories, 1950-2019: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.


Background
Accurate and up-to-date assessment of demographic metrics is crucial for understanding a wide range of social, economic, and public health issues that affect populations worldwide. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 produced updated and comprehensive demographic assessments of the key indicators of fertility, mortality, migration, and population for 204 countries and territories and selected subnational locations from 1950 to 2019.
Methods
8078 country-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 938 surveys, 349 censuses, and 238 other sources were identified and used to estimate age-specific fertility. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate age-specific fertility rates for 5-year age groups between ages 15 and 49 years. With extensions to age groups 10-14 and 50-54 years, the total fertility rate (TFR) was then aggregated using the estimated age-specific fertility between ages 10 and 54 years. 7417 sources were used for under-5 mortality estimation and 7355 for adult mortality. ST-GPR was used to synthesise data sources after correction for known biases. Adult mortality was measured as the probability of death between ages 15 and 60 years based on vital registration, sample registration, and sibling histories, and was also estimated using ST-GPR. HIV-free life tables were then estimated using estimates of under-5 and adult mortality rates using a relational model life table system created for GBD, which closely tracks observed age-specific mortality rates from complete vital registration when available. Independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated by an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance and other sources were incorporated into the estimates in countries with large epidemics. Annual and single-year age estimates of net migration and population for each country and territory were generated using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model that analysed estimated age-specific fertility and mortality rates along with 1250 censuses and 747 population registry years. We classified location-years into seven categories on the basis of the natural rate of increase in population (calculated by subtracting the crude death rate from the crude birth rate) and the net migration rate. We computed healthy life expectancy (HALE) using years lived with disability (YLDs) per capita, life tables, and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty was propagated throughout the demographic estimation process, including fertility, mortality, and population, with 1000 draw-level estimates produced for each metric.
Findings
The global TFR decreased from 2·72 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 2·66-2·79) in 2000 to 2·31 (2·17-2·46) in 2019. Global annual livebirths increased from 134·5 million (131·5-137·8) in 2000 to a peak of 139·6 million (133·0-146·9) in 2016. Global livebirths then declined to 135·3 million (127·2-144·1) in 2019. Of the 204 countries and territories included in this study, in 2019, 102 had a TFR lower than 2·1, which is considered a good approximation of replacement-level fertility. All countries in sub-Saharan Africa had TFRs above replacement level in 2019 and accounted for 27·1% (95% UI 26·4-27·8) of global livebirths. Global life expectancy at birth increased from 67·2 years (95% UI 66·8-67·6) in 2000 to 73·5 years (72·8-74·3) in 2019. The total number of deaths increased from 50·7 million (49·5-51·9) in 2000 to 56·5 million (53·7-59·2) in 2019. Under-5 deaths declined from 9·6 million (9·1-10·3) in 2000 to 5·0 million (4·3-6·0) in 2019. Global population increased by 25·7%, from 6·2 billion (6·0-6·3) in 2000 to 7·7 billion (7·5-8·0) in 2019. In 2019, 34 countries had negative natural rates of increase; in 17 of these, the population declined because immigration was not sufficient to counteract the negative rate of decline. Globally, HALE increased from 58·6 years (56·1-60·8) in 2000 to 63·5 years (60·8-66·1) in 2019. HALE increased in 202 of 204 countries and territories between 2000 and 2019.
Interpretation
Over the past 20 years, fertility rates have been dropping steadily and life expectancy has been increasing, with few exceptions. Much of this change follows historical patterns linking social and economic determinants, such as those captured by the GBD Socio-demographic Index, with demographic outcomes. More recently, several countries have experienced a combination of low fertility and stagnating improvement in mortality rates, pushing more populations into the late stages of the demographic transition. Tracking demographic change and the emergence of new patterns will be essential for global health monitoring.
Funding
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Copyright © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 16 Oct 2020; 396:1160-1203
Lancet: 16 Oct 2020; 396:1160-1203 | PMID: 33069325
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Abstract

Five insights from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.



The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 provides a rules-based synthesis of the available evidence on levels and trends in health outcomes, a diverse set of risk factors, and health system responses. GBD 2019 covered 204 countries and territories, as well as first administrative level disaggregations for 22 countries, from 1990 to 2019. Because GBD is highly standardised and comprehensive, spanning both fatal and non-fatal outcomes, and uses a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of hierarchical disease and injury causes, the study provides a powerful basis for detailed and broad insights on global health trends and emerging challenges. GBD 2019 incorporates data from 281 586 sources and provides more than 3·5 billion estimates of health outcome and health system measures of interest for global, national, and subnational policy dialogue. All GBD estimates are publicly available and adhere to the Guidelines on Accurate and Transparent Health Estimate Reporting. From this vast amount of information, five key insights that are important for health, social, and economic development strategies have been distilled. These insights are subject to the many limitations outlined in each of the component GBD capstone papers.

Copyright © 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 16 Oct 2020; 396:1135-1159
Lancet: 16 Oct 2020; 396:1135-1159 | PMID: 33069324
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Abstract

Efficacy, immunogenicity, and safety of a plant-derived, quadrivalent, virus-like particle influenza vaccine in adults (18-64 years) and older adults (≥65 years): two multicentre, randomised phase 3 trials.

Ward BJ, Makarkov A, Séguin A, Pillet S, ... Vesikari T, Landry N
Background
Seasonal influenza remains a substantial public health threat despite the availability of egg-derived and other vaccines. Plant-based manufacturing might address some of the limitations of current vaccines. We describe two phase 3 efficacy studies of a recombinant quadrivalent virus-like particle (QVLP) influenza vaccine manufactured in plants, one in adults aged 18-64 years (the 18-64 study) and one in older people aged 65 years and older (the 65-plus study).
Methods
We did two randomised, observer-blind, multinational studies in the northern hemisphere in the 2017-18 (the 18-64 study) and 2018-19 (the 65-plus study) influenza seasons. The 18-64 study was done at 73 sites and the 65-plus study was done at 104 sites, both across Asia, Europe, and North America. In the 18-64 study, inclusion criteria were body-mass index less than 40 kg/m; age 18-64 years at screening visit; and good health. In the 65-plus study, inclusion criteria were body-mass index of maximum 35 kg/m; aged 65 years or older at screening visit; not living in a rehabilitation centre or care home; and no acute or evolving medical problems. Participants in the 18-64 study were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive either QVLP vaccine (30 μg haemagglutinin per strain) or placebo. Participants in the 65-plus study were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive QVLP vaccine (30 μg haemagglutinin per strain) or quadrivalent inactivated vaccine (QIV; 15 μg haemagglutinin per strain). The primary outcome in the 18-64 study was absolute vaccine efficacy to prevent laboratory-confirmed, respiratory illness caused by antigenically matched influenza strains. The primary outcome in the 65-plus study was relative vaccine efficacy to prevent laboratory-confirmed influenza-like illness caused by any influenza strain. The primary analyses were done in the per-protocol population and safety was assessed in all participants who received the assigned treatment. These studies are registered with ClinicalTrials.gov (18-64 study NCT03301051; 65-plus study NCT03739112).
Findings
In the 18-64 study, between Aug 30, 2017, and Jan 15, 2018, 10 160 participants were randomly assigned to receive either QVLP vaccine (5077 participants) or placebo (5083 participants). The per-protocol population consisted of 4814 participants in the QVLP group and 4812 in the placebo group. The study did not meet its primary endpoint of 70% absolute vaccine efficacy for the QVLP vaccine (35·1% [95% CI 17·9 to 48·7]) against respiratory illness caused by matched strains. 55 (1·1%) of 5064 participants in the QVLP group versus 51 (1·0%) of 5072 in the placebo group had a serious adverse event. Four (0·1%) and six [0·1%] participants had severe treatment-related treatment-emergent adverse events. In the 65-plus study, between Sept 18, 2018, and Feb 22, 2019, 12 794 participants were randomly assigned to receive either QVLP vaccine (6396 participants) or QIV (6398 participants). The per-protocol population consisted of 5996 participants in the QVLP group and 6026 in the QIV group. The study met its primary non-inferiority endpoint with a relative vaccine efficacy of the QVLP vaccine for the prevention of influenza-like illness caused by any strain of 8·8% (-16·7 to 28·7). 263 (4·1%) of 6352 participants in the QVLP group versus 266 (4·2%) of 6366 in the QIV group had serious adverse events (one [<0·1%] vs two [<0·1%] were considered treatment-related); one (<0·1%) versus three (<0·1%) participants had severe treatment-related treatment-emergent adverse events.
Interpretation
These efficacy studies are the first large-scale studies of any plant-derived human vaccine. Together, they show that the plant-derived QVLP vaccine can provide substantial protection against respiratory illness and influenza-like illness caused by influenza viruses in adults. QVLP vaccine was well tolerated and no major safety signal arose in participants who received QVLP vaccine across the two studies.
Funding
Medicago.

Copyright © 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 12 Oct 2020; epub ahead of print
Ward BJ, Makarkov A, Séguin A, Pillet S, ... Vesikari T, Landry N
Lancet: 12 Oct 2020; epub ahead of print | PMID: 33065035
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Abstract

SARS-CoV-2 immunity: review and applications to phase 3 vaccine candidates.

Poland GA, Ovsyannikova IG, Kennedy RB

Understanding immune responses to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 is crucial to understanding disease pathogenesis and the usefulness of bridge therapies, such as hyperimmune globulin and convalescent human plasma, and to developing vaccines, antivirals, and monoclonal antibodies. A mere 11 months ago, the canvas we call COVID-19 was blank. Scientists around the world have worked collaboratively to fill in this blank canvas. In this Review, we discuss what is currently known about human humoral and cellular immune responses to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 and relate this knowledge to the COVID-19 vaccines currently in phase 3 clinical trials.

Copyright © 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 12 Oct 2020; epub ahead of print
Poland GA, Ovsyannikova IG, Kennedy RB
Lancet: 12 Oct 2020; epub ahead of print | PMID: 33065034
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Abstract

Long-term efficacy and safety of drug-coated balloons versus drug-eluting stents for small coronary artery disease (BASKET-SMALL 2): 3-year follow-up of a randomised, non-inferiority trial.

Jeger RV, Farah A, Ohlow MA, Mangner N, ... Scheller B,
Background
In the treatment of de-novo coronary small vessel disease, drug-coated balloons (DCBs) are non-inferior to drug-eluting stents (DESs) regarding clinical outcome up to 12 months, but data beyond 1 year is sparse. We aimed to test the long-term efficacy and safety of DCBs regarding clinical endpoints in an all-comer population undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention.
Methods
In this prespecified long-term follow-up of a multicentre, randomised, open-label, non-inferiority trial, patients from 14 clinical sites in Germany, Switzerland, and Austria with de-novo lesions in coronary vessels <3 mm and an indication for percutaneous coronary intervention were randomly assigned 1:1 to DCB or second-generation DES and followed over 3 years for major adverse cardiac events (ie, cardiac death, non-fatal myocardial infarction, and target-vessel revascularisation [TVR]), all-cause death, probable or definite stent thrombosis, and major bleeding (Bleeding Academic Research Consortium bleeding type 3-5). Analyses were performed on the full analysis set according to the modified intention-to-treat principle. Dual antiplatelet therapy was recommended for 1 month after DCB and 6 months after DES with stable symptoms, but 12 months with acute coronary syndromes. The study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT01574534 and is ongoing.
Findings
Between April 10, 2012, and Feb 1, 2017, of 883 patients assessed, 758 (86%) patients were randomly assigned to the DCB group (n=382) or the DES group (n=376). The Kaplan-Meier estimate of the rate of major adverse cardiac events was 15% in both the DCB and DES groups (hazard ratio [HR] 0·99, 95% CI 0·68-1·45; p=0·95). The two groups were also very similar concerning the single components of adverse cardiac events: cardiac death (Kaplan-Meier estimate 5% vs 4%, HR 1·29, 95% CI 0·63-2·66; p=0·49), non-fatal myocardial infarction (both Kaplan-Meier estimate 6%, HR 0·82, 95% CI 0·45-1·51; p=0·52), and TVR (both Kaplan-Meier estimate 9%, HR 0·95, 95% CI 0·58-1·56; p=0·83). Rates of all-cause death were very similar in DCB versus DES patients (both Kaplan-Meier estimate 8%, HR 1·05, 95% CI 0·62-1·77; p=0·87). Rates of probable or definite stent thrombosis (Kaplan-Meier estimate 1% vs 2%; HR 0·33, 95% CI 0·07-1·64; p=0·18) and major bleeding (Kaplan-Meier estimate 2% vs 4%, HR 0·43, 95% CI 0·17-1·13; p=0·088) were numerically lower in DCB versus DES, however without reaching significance.
Interpretation
There is maintained efficacy and safety of DCB versus DES in the treatment of de-novo coronary small vessel disease up to 3 years.
Funding
Swiss National Science Foundation, Basel Cardiovascular Research Foundation, and B Braun Medical.

Copyright © 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 18 Oct 2020; epub ahead of print
Jeger RV, Farah A, Ohlow MA, Mangner N, ... Scheller B,
Lancet: 18 Oct 2020; epub ahead of print | PMID: 33091360
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This program is still in alpha version.