Journal: Lancet

Sorted by: date / impact
Abstract

Global estimates of the need for rehabilitation based on the Global Burden of Disease study 2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

Cieza A, Causey K, Kamenov K, Hanson SW, Chatterji S, Vos T
Background
Rehabilitation has often been seen as a disability-specific service needed by only few of the population. Despite its individual and societal benefits, rehabilitation has not been prioritised in countries and is under-resourced. We present global, regional, and country data for the number of people who would benefit from rehabilitation at least once during the course of their disabling illness or injury.
Methods
To estimate the need for rehabilitation, data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 were used to calculate the prevalence and years of life lived with disability (YLDs) of 25 diseases, impairments, or bespoke aggregations of sequelae that were selected as amenable to rehabilitation. All analyses were done at the country level and then aggregated to seven regions: World Bank high-income countries and the six WHO regions (ie, Africa, the Americas, Southeast Asia, Europe, Eastern Mediterranean, and Western Pacific).
Findings
Globally, in 2019, 2·41 billion (95% uncertainty interval 2·34-2·50) individuals had conditions that would benefit from rehabilitation, contributing to 310 million [235-392] YLDs. This number had increased by 63% from 1990 to 2019. Regionally, the Western Pacific had the highest need of rehabilitation services (610 million people [588-636] and 83 million YLDs [62-106]). The disease area that contributed most to prevalence was musculoskeletal disorders (1·71 billion people [1·68-1·80]), with low back pain being the most prevalent condition in 134 of the 204 countries analysed.
Interpretation
To our knowledge, this is the first study to produce a global estimate of the need for rehabilitation services and to show that at least one in every three people in the world needs rehabilitation at some point in the course of their illness or injury. This number counters the common view of rehabilitation as a service required by only few people. We argue that rehabilitation needs to be brought close to communities as an integral part of primary health care to reach more people in need.
Funding
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Copyright © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article published under the CC BY-NC-ND 3.0 IGO license which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. In any use of this article, there should be no suggestion that WHO endorses any specific organisation, products or services. The use of the WHO logo is not permitted. This notice should be preserved along with the article\'s original URL.

Lancet: 18 Dec 2021; 396:2006-2017
Cieza A, Causey K, Kamenov K, Hanson SW, Chatterji S, Vos T
Lancet: 18 Dec 2021; 396:2006-2017 | PMID: 33275908
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Abstract

Long-acting cabotegravir and rilpivirine dosed every 2 months in adults with HIV-1 infection (ATLAS-2M), 48-week results: a randomised, multicentre, open-label, phase 3b, non-inferiority study.

Overton ET, Richmond G, Rizzardini G, Jaeger H, ... Vanveggel S, Spreen W
Background
Phase 3 clinical studies showed non-inferiority of long-acting intramuscular cabotegravir and rilpivirine dosed every 4 weeks to oral antiretroviral therapy. Important phase 2 results of every 8 weeks dosing, and supportive modelling, underpin further evaluation of every 8 weeks dosing in this trial, which has the potential to offer greater convenience. Our objective was to compare the week 48 antiviral efficacy of cabotegravir plus rilpivirine long-acting dosed every 8 weeks with that of every 4 weeks dosing.
Methods
ATLAS-2M is an ongoing, randomised, multicentre (13 countries; Australia, Argentina, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Mexico, Russia, South Africa, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, and the USA), open-label, phase 3b, non-inferiority study of cabotegravir plus rilpivirine long-acting maintenance therapy administered intramuscularly every 8 weeks (cabotegravir 600 mg plus rilpivirine 900 mg) or every 4 weeks (cabotegravir 400 mg plus rilpivirine 600 mg) to treatment-experienced adults living with HIV-1. Eligible newly recruited individuals must have received an uninterrupted first or second oral standard-of-care regimen for at least 6 months without virological failure and be aged 18 years or older. Eligible participants from the ATLAS trial, from both the oral standard-of-care and long-acting groups, must have completed the 52-week comparative phase with an ATLAS-2M screening plasma HIV-1 RNA less than 50 copies per mL. Participants were randomly assigned 1:1 to receive cabotegravir plus rilpivirine long-acting every 8 weeks or every 4 weeks. The randomisation schedule was generated by means of the GlaxoSmithKline validated randomisation software RANDALL NG. The primary endpoint at week 48 was HIV-1 RNA ≥50 copies per mL (Snapshot, intention-to-treat exposed), with a non-inferiority margin of 4%. The trial is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03299049 and is ongoing.
Findings
Screening occurred between Oct 27, 2017, and May 31, 2018. Of 1149 individuals screened, 1045 participants were randomised to the every 8 weeks (n=522) or every 4 weeks (n=523) groups; 37% (n=391) transitioned from every 4 weeks cabotegravir plus rilpivirine long-acting in ATLAS. Median participant age was 42 years (IQR 34-50); 27% (n=280) female at birth; 73% (n=763) white race. Cabotegravir plus rilpivirine long-acting every 8 weeks was non-inferior to dosing every 4 weeks (HIV-1 RNA ≥50 copies per mL; 2% vs 1%) with an adjusted treatment difference of 0·8 (95% CI -0·6-2·2). There were eight (2%, every 8 weeks group) and two (<1%, every 4 weeks group) confirmed virological failures (two sequential measures ≥200 copies per mL). For the every 8 weeks group, five (63%) of eight had archived non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor resistance-associated mutations to rilpivirine at baseline. The safety profile was similar between dosing groups, with 844 (81%) of 1045 participants having adverse events (excluding injection site reactions); no treatment-related deaths occurred.
Interpretation
The efficacy and safety profiles of dosing every 8 weeks and dosing every 4 weeks were similar. These results support the use of cabotegravir plus rilpivirine long-acting administered every 2 months as a therapeutic option for people living with HIV-1.
Funding
ViiV Healthcare and Janssen.

Copyright © 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 18 Dec 2021; 396:1994-2005
Overton ET, Richmond G, Rizzardini G, Jaeger H, ... Vanveggel S, Spreen W
Lancet: 18 Dec 2021; 396:1994-2005 | PMID: 33308425
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Abstract

Borderline personality disorder.

Bohus M, Stoffers-Winterling J, Sharp C, Krause-Utz A, Schmahl C, Lieb K
Borderline personality disorder (BPD) is a mental disorder with a high burden on patients, family members, and health-care systems. The condition was previously regarded as untreatable, but progress in understanding and management has resulted in earlier diagnosis and better treatment outcomes. A coherent syndrome of BPD typically onsets during adolescence (after age 12 years). BPD is often preceded by or co-develops with symptoms of internalising disorders (depression and anxiety), externalising disorders (conduct problems, hyperactivity, and substance use), or both. BPD is associated with various poor outcomes, including low occupational and educational attainment, lack of long-term relationships, increased partner conflict, sexual risk-taking, low levels of social support, low life satisfaction, and increased service use. Psychotherapy is the main treatment for BPD; drug treatment is only indicated for comorbid conditions that require medication, or during a crisis if psychosocial interventions are insufficient. Awareness of BPD by non-specialists, as well as specialists, is key to appropriate early intervention.

Copyright © 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 22 Oct 2021; 398:1528-1540
Bohus M, Stoffers-Winterling J, Sharp C, Krause-Utz A, Schmahl C, Lieb K
Lancet: 22 Oct 2021; 398:1528-1540 | PMID: 34688371
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Abstract

Study of mirtazapine for agitated behaviours in dementia (SYMBAD): a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial.

Banerjee S, High J, Stirling S, Shepstone L, ... Thomas AJ, Tabet N
Background
Agitation is common in people with dementia and negatively affects the quality of life of both people with dementia and carers. Non-drug patient-centred care is the first-line treatment, but there is a need for other treatment when this care is not effective. Current evidence is sparse on safer and effective alternatives to antipsychotics. We assessed the efficacy and safety of mirtazapine, an antidepressant prescribed for agitation in dementia.
Methods
This parallel-group, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial-the Study of Mirtazapine for Agitated Behaviours in Dementia trial (SYMBAD)-was done in 26 UK centres. Participants had probable or possible Alzheimer\'s disease, agitation unresponsive to non-drug treatment, and a Cohen-Mansfield Agitation Inventory (CMAI) score of 45 or more. They were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive either mirtazapine (titrated to 45 mg) or placebo. The primary outcome was reduction in CMAI score at 12 weeks. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03031184, and ISRCTN17411897.
Findings
Between Jan 26, 2017, and March 6, 2020, 204 participants were recruited and randomised. Mean CMAI scores at 12 weeks were not significantly different between participants receiving mirtazapine and participants receiving placebo (adjusted mean difference -1·74, 95% CI -7·17 to 3·69; p=0·53). The number of controls with adverse events (65 [64%] of 102 controls) was similar to that in the mirtazapine group (67 [66%] of 102 participants receiving mirtazapine). However, there were more deaths in the mirtazapine group (n=7) by week 16 than in the control group (n=1), with post-hoc analysis suggesting this difference was of marginal statistical significance (p=0·065).
Interpretation
This trial found no benefit of mirtazapine compared with placebo, and we observed a potentially higher mortality with use of mirtazapine. The data from this study do not support using mirtazapine as a treatment for agitation in dementia.
Funding
UK National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment Programme.

Copyright © 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 22 Oct 2021; 398:1487-1497
Banerjee S, High J, Stirling S, Shepstone L, ... Thomas AJ, Tabet N
Lancet: 22 Oct 2021; 398:1487-1497 | PMID: 34688369
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Abstract

The evolution of the Italian National Health Service.

Ricciardi W, Tarricone R
40 years ago, Italy saw the birth of a national, universal health-care system (Servizio Sanitario Nazionale [SSN]), which provides a full range of health-care services with a free choice of providers. The SSN is consistently rated within the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development among the highest countries for life expectancy and among the lowest in health-care spending as a proportion of gross domestic product. Italy appears to be in an envious position. However, a rapidly ageing population, increasing prevalence of chronic diseases, rising demand, and the COVID-19 pandemic have exposed weaknesses in the system. These weaknesses are linked to the often tumultuous history of the nation and the health-care system, in which innovation and initiative often lead to spiralling costs and difficulties, followed by austere cost-containment measures. We describe how the tenuous balance of centralised versus regional control has shifted over time to create not one, but 20 different health systems, exacerbating differences in access to care across regions. We explore how Italy can rise to the challenges ahead, providing recommendations for systemic change, with emphasis on data-driven planning, prevention, and research; integrated care and technology; and investments in personnel. The evolution of the SSN is characterised by an ongoing struggle to balance centralisation and decentralisation in a health-care system, a dilemma faced by many nations. If in times of emergency, planning, coordination, and control by the central government can guarantee uniformity of provider behaviour and access to care, during non-emergency times, we believe that a balance can be found provided that autonomy is paired with accountability in achieving certain objectives, and that the central government develops the skills and, therefore, the legitimacy, to formulate health policies of a national nature. These processes would provide local governments with the strategic means to develop local plans and programmes, and the knowledge and tools to coordinate local initiatives for eventual transfer to the larger system.

Copyright © 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 21 Oct 2021; epub ahead of print
Ricciardi W, Tarricone R
Lancet: 21 Oct 2021; epub ahead of print | PMID: 34695372
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Abstract

Tirzepatide versus insulin glargine in type 2 diabetes and increased cardiovascular risk (SURPASS-4): a randomised, open-label, parallel-group, multicentre, phase 3 trial.

Del Prato S, Kahn SE, Pavo I, Weerakkody GJ, ... Wiese RJ, SURPASS-4 Investigators
Background
We aimed to assess efficacy and safety, with a special focus on cardiovascular safety, of the novel dual GIP and GLP-1 receptor agonist tirzepatide versus insulin glargine in adults with type 2 diabetes and high cardiovascular risk inadequately controlled on oral glucose-lowering medications.
Methods
This open-label, parallel-group, phase 3 study was done in 187 sites in 14 countries on five continents. Eligible participants, aged 18 years or older, had type 2 diabetes treated with any combination of metformin, sulfonylurea, or sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 inhibitor, a baseline glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) of 7·5-10·5% (58-91 mmol/mol), body-mass index of 25 kg/m2 or greater, and established cardiovascular disease or a high risk of cardiovascular events. Participants were randomly assigned (1:1:1:3) via an interactive web-response system to subcutaneous injection of either once-per-week tirzepatide (5 mg, 10 mg, or 15 mg) or glargine (100 U/mL), titrated to reach fasting blood glucose of less than 100 mg/dL. The primary endpoint was non-inferiority (0·3% non-inferiority boundary) of tirzepatide 10 mg or 15 mg, or both, versus glargine in HbA1c change from baseline to 52 weeks. All participants were treated for at least 52 weeks, with treatment continued for a maximum of 104 weeks or until study completion to collect and adjudicate major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE). Safety measures were assessed over the full study period. This study was registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03730662.
Findings
Patients were recruited between Nov 20, 2018, and Dec 30, 2019. 3045 participants were screened, with 2002 participants randomly assigned to tirzepatide or glargine. 1995 received at least one dose of tirzepatide 5 mg (n=329, 17%), 10 mg (n=328, 16%), or 15 mg (n=338, 17%), or glargine (n=1000, 50%), and were included in the modified intention-to-treat population. At 52 weeks, mean HbA1c changes with tirzepatide were -2·43% (SD 0·05) with 10 mg and -2·58% (0·05) with 15 mg, versus -1·44% (0·03) with glargine. The estimated treatment difference versus glargine was -0·99% (multiplicity adjusted 97·5% CI -1·13 to -0·86) for tirzepatide 10 mg and -1·14% (-1·28 to -1·00) for 15 mg, and the non-inferiority margin of 0·3% was met for both doses. Nausea (12-23%), diarrhoea (13-22%), decreased appetite (9-11%), and vomiting (5-9%) were more frequent with tirzepatide than glargine (nausea 2%, diarrhoea 4%, decreased appetite <1%, and vomiting 2%, respectively); most cases were mild to moderate and occurred during the dose-escalation phase. The percentage of participants with hypoglycaemia (glucose <54 mg/dL or severe) was lower with tirzepatide (6-9%) versus glargine (19%), particularly in participants not on sulfonylureas (tirzepatide 1-3% vs glargine 16%). Adjudicated MACE-4 events (cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, stroke, hospitalisation for unstable angina) occurred in 109 participants and were not increased on tirzepatide compared with glargine (hazard ratio 0·74, 95% CI 0·51-1·08). 60 deaths (n=25 [3%] tirzepatide; n=35 [4%] glargine) occurred during the study.
Interpretation
In people with type 2 diabetes and elevated cardiovascular risk, tirzepatide, compared with glargine, demonstrated greater and clinically meaningful HbA1c reduction with a lower incidence of hypoglycaemia at week 52. Tirzepatide treatment was not associated with excess cardiovascular risk.
Funding
Eli Lilly and Company.

Copyright © 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 17 Oct 2021; epub ahead of print
Del Prato S, Kahn SE, Pavo I, Weerakkody GJ, ... Wiese RJ, SURPASS-4 Investigators
Lancet: 17 Oct 2021; epub ahead of print | PMID: 34672967
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Abstract

Management of disease-related malnutrition for patients being treated in hospital.

Schuetz P, Seres D, Lobo DN, Gomes F, Kaegi-Braun N, Stanga Z
Disease-related malnutrition in adult patients who have been admitted to hospital is a syndrome associated with substantially increased morbidity, disability, short-term and long-term mortality, impaired recovery from illness, and cost of care. There is uncertainty regarding optimal diagnostic criteria, definitions for malnutrition, and how to identify patients who would benefit from nutritional intervention. Malnutrition has become the focus of research aimed at translating current knowledge of its pathophysiology into improved diagnosis and treatment. Researchers are particularly interested in developing nutritional interventions that reverse the negative effects of disease-related malnutrition in the hospital setting. High-quality randomised trials have provided evidence that nutritional therapy can reduce morbidity and other complications associated with malnutrition in some patients. Screening of patients for risk of malnutrition at hospital admission, followed by nutritional assessment and individualised nutritional interventions for malnourished patients, should become part of routine clinical care and multimodal treatment in hospitals worldwide.

Copyright © 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 13 Oct 2021; epub ahead of print
Schuetz P, Seres D, Lobo DN, Gomes F, Kaegi-Braun N, Stanga Z
Lancet: 13 Oct 2021; epub ahead of print | PMID: 34656286
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Abstract

Adjuvant atezolizumab after adjuvant chemotherapy in resected stage IB-IIIA non-small-cell lung cancer (IMpower010): a randomised, multicentre, open-label, phase 3 trial.

Felip E, Altorki N, Zhou C, Csőszi T, ... Wakelee H, IMpower010 Investigators
Background
Novel adjuvant strategies are needed to optimise outcomes after complete surgical resection in patients with early-stage non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC). We aimed to evaluate adjuvant atezolizumab versus best supportive care after adjuvant platinum-based chemotherapy in these patients.
Methods
IMpower010 was a randomised, multicentre, open-label, phase 3 study done at 227 sites in 22 countries and regions. Eligible patients were 18 years or older with completely resected stage IB (tumours ≥4 cm) to IIIA NSCLC per the Union Internationale Contre le Cancer and American Joint Committee on Cancer staging system (7th edition). Patients were randomly assigned (1:1) by a permuted-block method (block size of four) to receive adjuvant atezolizumab (1200 mg every 21 days; for 16 cycles or 1 year) or best supportive care (observation and regular scans for disease recurrence) after adjuvant platinum-based chemotherapy (one to four cycles). The primary endpoint, investigator-assessed disease-free survival, was tested hierarchically first in the stage II-IIIA population subgroup whose tumours expressed PD-L1 on 1% or more of tumour cells (SP263), then all patients in the stage II-IIIA population, and finally the intention-to-treat (ITT) population (stage IB-IIIA). Safety was evaluated in all patients who were randomly assigned and received atezolizumab or best supportive care. IMpower010 is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02486718 (active, not recruiting).
Findings
Between Oct 7, 2015, and Sept 19, 2018, 1280 patients were enrolled after complete resection. 1269 received adjuvant chemotherapy, of whom 1005 patients were eligible for randomisation to atezolizumab (n=507) or best supportive care (n=498); 495 in each group received treatment. After a median follow-up of 32·2 months (IQR 27·4-38·3) in the stage II-IIIA population, atezolizumab treatment improved disease-free survival compared with best supportive care in patients in the stage II-IIIA population whose tumours expressed PD-L1 on 1% or more of tumour cells (HR 0·66; 95% CI 0·50-0·88; p=0·0039) and in all patients in the stage II-IIIA population (0·79; 0·64-0·96; p=0·020). In the ITT population, HR for disease-free survival was 0·81 (0·67-0·99; p=0·040). Atezolizumab-related grade 3 and 4 adverse events occurred in 53 (11%) of 495 patients and grade 5 events in four patients (1%).
Interpretation
IMpower010 showed a disease-free survival benefit with atezolizumab versus best supportive care after adjuvant chemotherapy in patients with resected stage II-IIIA NSCLC, with pronounced benefit in the subgroup whose tumours expressed PD-L1 on 1% or more of tumour cells, and no new safety signals. Atezolizumab after adjuvant chemotherapy offers a promising treatment option for patients with resected early-stage NSCLC.
Funding
F Hoffmann-La Roche and Genentech.

Copyright © 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 08 Oct 2021; 398:1344-1357
Felip E, Altorki N, Zhou C, Csőszi T, ... Wakelee H, IMpower010 Investigators
Lancet: 08 Oct 2021; 398:1344-1357 | PMID: 34555333
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Abstract

Liver cirrhosis.

Ginès P, Krag A, Abraldes JG, Solà E, Fabrellas N, Kamath PS
Cirrhosis is widely prevalent worldwide and can be a consequence of different causes, such as obesity, non-alcoholic fatty liver disease, high alcohol consumption, hepatitis B or C infection, autoimmune diseases, cholestatic diseases, and iron or copper overload. Cirrhosis develops after a long period of inflammation that results in replacement of the healthy liver parenchyma with fibrotic tissue and regenerative nodules, leading to portal hypertension. The disease evolves from an asymptomatic phase (compensated cirrhosis) to a symptomatic phase (decompensated cirrhosis), the complications of which often result in hospitalisation, impaired quality of life, and high mortality. Progressive portal hypertension, systemic inflammation, and liver failure drive disease outcomes. The management of liver cirrhosis is centred on the treatment of the causes and complications, and liver transplantation can be required in some cases. In this Seminar, we discuss the disease burden, pathophysiology, and recommendations for the diagnosis and management of cirrhosis and its complications. Future challenges include better screening for early fibrosis or cirrhosis, early identification and reversal of causative factors, and prevention of complications.

Copyright © 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 08 Oct 2021; 398:1359-1376
Ginès P, Krag A, Abraldes JG, Solà E, Fabrellas N, Kamath PS
Lancet: 08 Oct 2021; 398:1359-1376 | PMID: 34543610
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Abstract

Unguided de-escalation from ticagrelor to clopidogrel in stabilised patients with acute myocardial infarction undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (TALOS-AMI): an investigator-initiated, open-label, multicentre, non-inferiority, randomised trial.

Kim CJ, Park MW, Kim MC, Choo EH, ... Chang K, TALOS-AMI investigators
Background
In patients with acute myocardial infarction receiving potent antiplatelet therapy, the bleeding risk remains high during the maintenance phase. We sought data on a uniform unguided de-escalation strategy of dual antiplatelet therapy (DAPT) from ticagrelor to clopidogrel after acute myocardial infarction.
Methods
In this open-label, assessor-masked, multicentre, non-inferiority, randomised trial (TALOS-AMI), patients at 32 institutes in South Korea with acute myocardial infarction receiving aspirin and ticagrelor without major ischaemic or bleeding events during the first month after index percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) were randomly assigned in a 1:1 ratio to a de-escalation (clopidogrel plus aspirin) or active control (ticagrelor plus aspirin) group. Unguided de-escalation without a loading dose of clopidogrel was adopted when switching from ticagrelor to clopidogrel. The primary endpoint was a composite of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, stroke, or bleeding type 2, 3, or 5 according to Bleeding Academic Research Consortium (BARC) criteria from 1 to 12 months. A non-inferiority test was done to assess the safety and efficacy of de-escalation DAPT compared with standard treatment. The hazard ratio (HR) for de-escalation versus active control group in a stratified Cox proportional hazards model was assessed for non-inferiority by means of an HR margin of 1·34, which equates to an absolute difference of 3·0% in the intention-to-treat population and, if significant, a superiority test was done subsequently. To ensure statistical robustness, additional analyses were also done in the per-protocol population. This trial is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02018055.
Findings
From Feb 26, 2014, to Dec 31, 2018, from 2901 patients screened, 2697 patients were randomly assigned: 1349 patients to de-escalation and 1348 to active control groups. At 12 months, the primary endpoints occurred in 59 (4·6%) in the de-escalation group and 104 (8·2%) patients in the active control group (pnon-inferiority<0·001; HR 0·55 [95% CI 0·40-0·76], psuperiority=0·0001). There was no significant difference in composite of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, or stroke between de-escalation (2·1%) and the active control group (3·1%; HR 0·69; 95% CI 0·42-1·14, p=0·15). Composite of BARC 2, 3, or 5 bleeding occurred less frequently in the de-escalation group (3·0% vs 5·6%, HR 0·52; 95% CI 0·35-0·77, p=0·0012).
Interpretation
In stabilised patients with acute myocardial infarction after index PCI, a uniform unguided de-escalation strategy significantly reduced the risk of net clinical events up to 12 months, mainly by reducing the bleeding events.
Funding
ChongKunDang Pharm, Medtronic, Abbott, and Boston Scientific.

Copyright © 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 08 Oct 2021; 398:1305-1316
Kim CJ, Park MW, Kim MC, Choo EH, ... Chang K, TALOS-AMI investigators
Lancet: 08 Oct 2021; 398:1305-1316 | PMID: 34627490
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Abstract

Global prevalence and burden of depressive and anxiety disorders in 204 countries and territories in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

COVID-19 Mental Disorders Collaborators
Background
Before 2020, mental disorders were leading causes of the global health-related burden, with depressive and anxiety disorders being leading contributors to this burden. The emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic has created an environment where many determinants of poor mental health are exacerbated. The need for up-to-date information on the mental health impacts of COVID-19 in a way that informs health system responses is imperative. In this study, we aimed to quantify the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the prevalence and burden of major depressive disorder and anxiety disorders globally in 2020.
Methods
We conducted a systematic review of data reporting the prevalence of major depressive disorder and anxiety disorders during the COVID-19 pandemic and published between Jan 1, 2020, and Jan 29, 2021. We searched PubMed, Google Scholar, preprint servers, grey literature sources, and consulted experts. Eligible studies reported prevalence of depressive or anxiety disorders that were representative of the general population during the COVID-19 pandemic and had a pre-pandemic baseline. We used the assembled data in a meta-regression to estimate change in the prevalence of major depressive disorder and anxiety disorders between pre-pandemic and mid-pandemic (using periods as defined by each study) via COVID-19 impact indicators (human mobility, daily SARS-CoV-2 infection rate, and daily excess mortality rate). We then used this model to estimate the change from pre-pandemic prevalence (estimated using Disease Modelling Meta-Regression version 2.1 [known as DisMod-MR 2.1]) by age, sex, and location. We used final prevalence estimates and disability weights to estimate years lived with disability and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for major depressive disorder and anxiety disorders.
Findings
We identified 5683 unique data sources, of which 48 met inclusion criteria (46 studies met criteria for major depressive disorder and 27 for anxiety disorders). Two COVID-19 impact indicators, specifically daily SARS-CoV-2 infection rates and reductions in human mobility, were associated with increased prevalence of major depressive disorder (regression coefficient [B] 0·9 [95% uncertainty interval 0·1 to 1·8; p=0·029] for human mobility, 18·1 [7·9 to 28·3; p=0·0005] for daily SARS-CoV-2 infection) and anxiety disorders (0·9 [0·1 to 1·7; p=0·022] and 13·8 [10·7 to 17·0; p<0·0001]. Females were affected more by the pandemic than males (B 0·1 [0·1 to 0·2; p=0·0001] for major depressive disorder, 0·1 [0·1 to 0·2; p=0·0001] for anxiety disorders) and younger age groups were more affected than older age groups (-0·007 [-0·009 to -0·006; p=0·0001] for major depressive disorder, -0·003 [-0·005 to -0·002; p=0·0001] for anxiety disorders). We estimated that the locations hit hardest by the pandemic in 2020, as measured with decreased human mobility and daily SARS-CoV-2 infection rate, had the greatest increases in prevalence of major depressive disorder and anxiety disorders. We estimated an additional 53·2 million (44·8 to 62·9) cases of major depressive disorder globally (an increase of 27·6% [25·1 to 30·3]) due to the COVID-19 pandemic, such that the total prevalence was 3152·9 cases (2722·5 to 3654·5) per 100 000 population. We also estimated an additional 76·2 million (64·3 to 90·6) cases of anxiety disorders globally (an increase of 25·6% [23·2 to 28·0]), such that the total prevalence was 4802·4 cases (4108·2 to 5588·6) per 100 000 population. Altogether, major depressive disorder caused 49·4 million (33·6 to 68·7) DALYs and anxiety disorders caused 44·5 million (30·2 to 62·5) DALYs globally in 2020.
Interpretation
This pandemic has created an increased urgency to strengthen mental health systems in most countries. Mitigation strategies could incorporate ways to promote mental wellbeing and target determinants of poor mental health and interventions to treat those with a mental disorder. Taking no action to address the burden of major depressive disorder and anxiety disorders should not be an option.
Funding
Queensland Health, National Health and Medical Research Council, and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.

Copyright © 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 07 Oct 2021; epub ahead of print
COVID-19 Mental Disorders Collaborators
Lancet: 07 Oct 2021; epub ahead of print | PMID: 34634250
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Abstract

Effectiveness of mRNA BNT162b2 COVID-19 vaccine up to 6 months in a large integrated health system in the USA: a retrospective cohort study.

Tartof SY, Slezak JM, Fischer H, Hong V, ... Jodar L, McLaughlin JM
Background
Vaccine effectiveness studies have not differentiated the effect of the delta (B.1.617.2) variant and potential waning immunity in observed reductions in effectiveness against SARS-CoV-2 infections. We aimed to evaluate overall and variant-specific effectiveness of BNT162b2 (tozinameran, Pfizer-BioNTech) against SARS-CoV-2 infections and COVID-19-related hospital admissions by time since vaccination among members of a large US health-care system.
Methods
In this retrospective cohort study, we analysed electronic health records of individuals (≥12 years) who were members of the health-care organisation Kaiser Permanente Southern California (CA, USA), to assess BNT162b2 vaccine effectiveness against SARS-CoV-2 infections and COVID-19-related hospital admissions for up to 6 months. Participants were required to have 1 year or more previous membership of the organisation. Outcomes comprised SARS-CoV-2 PCR-positive tests and COVID-19-related hospital admissions. Effectiveness calculations were based on hazard ratios from adjusted Cox models. This study was registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04848584.
Findings
Between Dec 14, 2020, and Aug 8, 2021, of 4 920 549 individuals assessed for eligibility, we included 3 436 957 (median age 45 years [IQR 29-61]; 1 799 395 [52·4%] female and 1 637 394 [47·6%] male). For fully vaccinated individuals, effectiveness against SARS-CoV-2 infections was 73% (95% CI 72-74) and against COVID-19-related hospital admissions was 90% (89-92). Effectiveness against infections declined from 88% (95% CI 86-89) during the first month after full vaccination to 47% (43-51) after 5 months. Among sequenced infections, vaccine effectiveness against infections of the delta variant was high during the first month after full vaccination (93% [95% CI 85-97]) but declined to 53% [39-65] after 4 months. Effectiveness against other (non-delta) variants the first month after full vaccination was also high at 97% (95% CI 95-99), but waned to 67% (45-80) at 4-5 months. Vaccine effectiveness against hospital admissions for infections with the delta variant for all ages was high overall (93% [95% CI 84-96]) up to 6 months.
Interpretation
Our results provide support for high effectiveness of BNT162b2 against hospital admissions up until around 6 months after being fully vaccinated, even in the face of widespread dissemination of the delta variant. Reduction in vaccine effectiveness against SARS-CoV-2 infections over time is probably primarily due to waning immunity with time rather than the delta variant escaping vaccine protection.
Funding
Pfizer.

Copyright © 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 03 Oct 2021; epub ahead of print
Tartof SY, Slezak JM, Fischer H, Hong V, ... Jodar L, McLaughlin JM
Lancet: 03 Oct 2021; epub ahead of print | PMID: 34619098
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Impact:
Abstract

Brain injury after cardiac arrest.

Perkins GD, Callaway CW, Haywood K, Neumar RW, ... Skrifvars MB, Nolan JP
As more people are surviving cardiac arrest, focus needs to shift towards improving neurological outcomes and quality of life in survivors. Brain injury after resuscitation, a common sequela following cardiac arrest, ranges in severity from mild impairment to devastating brain injury and brainstem death. Effective strategies to minimise brain injury after resuscitation include early intervention with cardiopulmonary resuscitation and defibrillation, restoration of normal physiology, and targeted temperature management. It is important to identify people who might have a poor outcome, to enable informed choices about continuation or withdrawal of life-sustaining treatments. Multimodal prediction guidelines seek to avoid premature withdrawal in those who might survive with a good neurological outcome, or prolonging treatment that might result in survival with severe disability. Approximately one in three admitted to intensive care will survive, many of whom will need intensive, tailored rehabilitation after discharge to have the best outcomes.

Copyright © 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 01 Oct 2021; 398:1269-1278
Perkins GD, Callaway CW, Haywood K, Neumar RW, ... Skrifvars MB, Nolan JP
Lancet: 01 Oct 2021; 398:1269-1278 | PMID: 34454687
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Impact:
Abstract

Fatal police violence by race and state in the USA, 1980-2019: a network meta-regression.

GBD 2019 Police Violence US Subnational Collaborators
Background
The burden of fatal police violence is an urgent public health crisis in the USA. Mounting evidence shows that deaths at the hands of the police disproportionately impact people of certain races and ethnicities, pointing to systemic racism in policing. Recent high-profile killings by police in the USA have prompted calls for more extensive and public data reporting on police violence. This study examines the presence and extent of under-reporting of police violence in US Government-run vital registration data, offers a method for correcting under-reporting in these datasets, and presents revised estimates of deaths due to police violence in the USA.
Methods
We compared data from the USA National Vital Statistics System (NVSS) to three non-governmental, open-source databases on police violence: Fatal Encounters, Mapping Police Violence, and The Counted. We extracted and standardised the age, sex, US state of death registration, year of death, and race and ethnicity (non-Hispanic White, non-Hispanic Black, non-Hispanic of other races, and Hispanic of any race) of each decedent for all data sources and used a network meta-regression to quantify the rate of under-reporting within the NVSS. Using these rates to inform correction factors, we provide adjusted estimates of deaths due to police violence for all states, ages, sexes, and racial and ethnic groups from 1980 to 2019 across the USA.
Findings
Across all races and states in the USA, we estimate 30 800 deaths (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 30 300-31 300) from police violence between 1980 and 2018; this represents 17 100 more deaths (16 600-17 600) than reported by the NVSS. Over this time period, the age-standardised mortality rate due to police violence was highest in non-Hispanic Black people (0·69 [95% UI 0·67-0·71] per 100 000), followed by Hispanic people of any race (0·35 [0·34-0·36]), non-Hispanic White people (0·20 [0·19-0·20]), and non-Hispanic people of other races (0·15 [0·14- 0·16]). This variation is further affected by the decedent\'s sex and shows large discrepancies between states. Between 1980 and 2018, the NVSS did not report 55·5% (54·8-56·2) of all deaths attributable to police violence. When aggregating all races, the age-standardised mortality rate due to police violence was 0·25 (0·24-0·26) per 100 000 in the 1980s and 0·34 (0·34-0·35) per 100 000 in the 2010s, an increase of 38·4% (32·4-45·1) over the period of study.
Interpretation
We found that more than half of all deaths due to police violence that we estimated in the USA from 1980 to 2018 were unreported in the NVSS. Compounding this, we found substantial differences in the age-standardised mortality rate due to police violence over time and by racial and ethnic groups within the USA. Proven public health intervention strategies are needed to address these systematic biases. State-level estimates allow for appropriate targeting of these strategies to address police violence and improve its reporting.
Funding
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, National Institute on Minority Health and Health Disparities, and National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute.

Copyright © 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 01 Oct 2021; 398:1239-1255
GBD 2019 Police Violence US Subnational Collaborators
Lancet: 01 Oct 2021; 398:1239-1255 | PMID: 34600625
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Impact:
Abstract

Hypertrophic cardiomyopathy: a practical approach to guideline directed management.

Ommen SR, Semsarian C
Hypertrophic cardiomyopathy, one of the most common genetic cardiovascular conditions, will be encountered by nearly every health-care provider regardless of specialty. In 2020, new hypertrophic cardiomyopathy management guidelines were published, updating and evolving preceding versions. This Seminar provides a concise review and practical guide to the updated recommendations for patients with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy.

Copyright © 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 29 Sep 2021; epub ahead of print
Ommen SR, Semsarian C
Lancet: 29 Sep 2021; epub ahead of print | PMID: 34600606
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Impact:
Abstract

Obesity management as a primary treatment goal for type 2 diabetes: time to reframe the conversation.

Lingvay I, Sumithran P, Cohen RV, le Roux CW
Obesity is now recognised as a disease that is associated with serious morbidity and increased mortality. One of its main metabolic complications is type 2 diabetes, as the two conditions share key pathophysiological mechanisms. Weight loss is known to reverse the underlying metabolic abnormalities of type 2 diabetes and, as such, improve glucose control; loss of 15% or more of bodyweight can have a disease-modifying effect in people with type 2 diabetes, an outcome that is not attainable by any other glucose-lowering intervention. Furthermore, weight loss in this population exerts benefits that extend beyond glycaemic control to improve risk factors for cardiometabolic disease and quality of life. We review the evidence supporting the role of weight loss in the management of type 2 diabetes and propose that many patients with type 2 diabetes would benefit from having a primary weight-centric approach to diabetes treatment. We discuss the logistical challenges to implementing a new weight-centric primary treatment goal in people with type 2 diabetes.

Copyright © 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 29 Sep 2021; epub ahead of print
Lingvay I, Sumithran P, Cohen RV, le Roux CW
Lancet: 29 Sep 2021; epub ahead of print | PMID: 34600604
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Impact:
Abstract

Community-acquired bacterial meningitis.

van de Beek D, Brouwer MC, Koedel U, Wall EC
Progress has been made in the prevention and treatment of community-acquired bacterial meningitis during the past three decades but the burden of the disease remains high globally. Conjugate vaccines against the three most common causative pathogens (Streptococcus pneumoniae, Neisseria meningitidis, and Haemophilus influenzae) have reduced the incidence of disease, but with the replacement by non-vaccine pneumococcal serotypes and the emergence of bacterial strains with reduced susceptibility to antimicrobial treatment, meningitis continues to pose a major health challenge worldwide. In patients presenting with bacterial meningitis, typical clinical characteristics (such as the classic triad of neck stiffness, fever, and an altered mental status) might be absent and cerebrospinal fluid examination for biochemistry, microscopy, culture, and PCR to identify bacterial DNA are essential for the diagnosis. Multiplex PCR point-of-care panels in cerebrospinal fluid show promise in accelerating the diagnosis, but diagnostic accuracy studies to justify routine implementation are scarce and randomised, controlled studies are absent. Early administration of antimicrobial treatment (within 1 hour of presentation) improves outcomes and needs to be adjusted according to local emergence of drug resistance. Adjunctive dexamethasone treatment has proven efficacy beyond the neonatal age but only in patients from high-income countries. Further progress can be expected from implementing preventive measures, especially the development of new vaccines, implementation of hospital protocols aimed at early treatment, and new treatments targeting checkpoints of the inflammatory cascade.

Copyright © 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 24 Sep 2021; 398:1171-1183
van de Beek D, Brouwer MC, Koedel U, Wall EC
Lancet: 24 Sep 2021; 398:1171-1183 | PMID: 34303412
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Impact:
Abstract

Fixed-dose combination therapies with and without aspirin for primary prevention of cardiovascular disease: an individual participant data meta-analysis.

Joseph P, Roshandel G, Gao P, Pais P, ... Yusuf S, Polypill Trialists\' Collaboration
Background
In randomised controlled trials, fixed-dose combination treatments (or polypills) have been shown to reduce a composite of cardiovascular disease outcomes in primary prevention. However, whether or not aspirin should be included, effects on specific outcomes, and effects in key subgroups are unknown.
Methods
We did an individual participant data meta-analysis of large randomised controlled trials (each with ≥1000 participants and ≥2 years of follow-up) of a fixed-dose combination treatment strategy versus control in a primary cardiovascular disease prevention population. We included trials that evaluated a fixed-dose combination strategy of at least two blood pressure lowering agents plus a statin (with or without aspirin), compared with a control strategy (either placebo or usual care). The primary outcome was time to first occurrence of a composite of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, stroke, or arterial revascularisation. Additional outcomes included individual cardiovascular outcomes and death from any cause. Outcomes were also evaluated in groups stratified by the inclusion of aspirin in the fixed-dose treatment strategy, and effect sizes were estimated in prespecified subgroups based on risk factors. Kaplan-Meier survival curves and Cox proportional hazard regression models were used to compare strategies.
Findings
Three large randomised trials were included in the analysis (TIPS-3, HOPE-3, and PolyIran), with a total of 18 162 participants. Mean age was 63·0 years (SD 7·1), and 9038 (49·8%) participants were female. Estimated 10-year cardiovascular disease risk for the population was 17·7% (8·7). During a median follow-up of 5 years, the primary outcome occurred in 276 (3·0%) participants in the fixed-dose combination strategy group compared with 445 (4·9%) in the control group (hazard ratio 0·62, 95% CI 0·53-0·73, p<0·0001). Reductions were also observed for the separate components of the primary outcome: myocardial infarction (0·52, 0·38-0·70), revascularisation (0·54, 0·36-0·80), stroke (0·59, 0·45-0·78), and cardiovascular death (0·65, 0·52-0·81). Significant reductions in the primary outcome and its components were observed in the analyses of fixed-dose combination strategies with and without aspirin, with greater reductions for strategies including aspirin. Treatment effects were similar at different lipid and blood pressure levels, and in the presence or absence of diabetes, smoking, or obesity. Gastrointestinal bleeding was uncommon but slightly more frequent in the fixed-dose combination strategy with aspirin group versus control (19 [0·4%] vs 11 [0·2%], p=0·15). The frequencies of haemorrhagic stroke (10 [0·2%] vs 15 [0·3%]), fatal bleeding (two [<0·1%] vs four [0·1%]), and peptic ulcer disease (32 [0·7%] vs 34 [0·8%]) were low and did not differ significantly between groups. Dizziness was more common with fixed-dose combination treatment (1060 [11·7%] vs 834 [9·2%], p<0·0001).
Interpretation
Fixed-dose combination treatment strategies substantially reduce cardiovascular disease, myocardial infarction, stroke, revascularisation, and cardiovascular death in primary cardiovascular disease prevention. These benefits are consistent irrespective of cardiometabolic risk factors.
Funding
Population Health Research Institute.

Copyright © 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 24 Sep 2021; 398:1133-1146
Joseph P, Roshandel G, Gao P, Pais P, ... Yusuf S, Polypill Trialists' Collaboration
Lancet: 24 Sep 2021; 398:1133-1146 | PMID: 34469765
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Impact:
Abstract

Dose escalation of subcutaneous epcoritamab in patients with relapsed or refractory B-cell non-Hodgkin lymphoma: an open-label, phase 1/2 study.

Hutchings M, Mous R, Clausen MR, Johnson P, ... Ahmadi T, Lugtenburg PJ
Background
Patients with relapsed or refractory B-cell non-Hodgkin lymphoma have few treatment options. We aimed to establish the safety and recommended phase 2 dose of epcoritamab, a novel bispecific antibody that targets CD3 and CD20 and induces T-cell-mediated cytotoxic activity against CD20+ malignant B cells.
Methods
For the dose-escalation part of this phase 1/2 study, we enrolled adults (aged ≥18 years) with relapsed or refractory CD20+ B-cell non-Hodgkin lymphoma at ten sites across four countries (Denmark, the Netherlands, the UK, and Spain). Eligible patients received priming and intermediate doses followed by full doses of subcutaneous epcoritamab administered in 28-day cycles; each subsequent cohort involved escalation of the priming, intermediate, or full dose (0·0128-60 mg). The primary objectives were to determine the maximum tolerated dose and the recommended phase 2 dose. Safety, antitumour activity, pharmacokinetics, and immune biomarkers were also assessed. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03625037, with the dose-expansion part ongoing.
Findings
Between June 26, 2018, and July 14, 2020, we enrolled 73 patients with relapsed, progressive, or refractory CD20+ mature B-cell non-Hodgkin lymphoma. 68 patients received escalating full doses (0·0128-60 mg) of subcutaneous epcoritamab. No dose-limiting toxic effects were observed, and the maximum tolerated dose was not reached; the full dose of 48 mg was identified as the recommended phase 2 dose. All 68 patients received at least one dose of epcoritamab and were included in safety analyses: common adverse events were pyrexia (47 patients [69%]), primarily associated with cytokine release syndrome (CRS; 40 [59%], all grade 1-2), and injection site reactions (32 [47%]; 31 grade 1). There were no grade 3 or higher CRS events. No discontinuations occurred due to treatment-related adverse events or treatment-related deaths. Overall response rate in patients with relapsed or refractory diffuse large B-cell lymphoma was 68% (95% CI 45-86), with 45% achieving a complete response at full doses of 12-60 mg. At 48 mg, the overall response rate was 88% (47-100), with 38% achieving a complete response. Patients with relapsed or refractory follicular lymphoma had an overall response rate of 90% (55-100), with 50% achieving a complete response at full doses of 0·76-48 mg. Epcoritamab induced robust and sustained B-cell depletion, and CD4+ and CD8+ T-cell activation and expansion, with modest increases in cytokine levels.
Interpretation
Single-agent subcutaneous epcoritamab for treatment of patients with relapsed or refractory B-cell non-Hodgkin lymphoma merits investigation in ongoing phase 2 and phase 3 studies.
Funding
Genmab and AbbVie.

Copyright © 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 24 Sep 2021; 398:1157-1169
Hutchings M, Mous R, Clausen MR, Johnson P, ... Ahmadi T, Lugtenburg PJ
Lancet: 24 Sep 2021; 398:1157-1169 | PMID: 34508654
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Impact:
Abstract

Head and neck cancer.

Mody MD, Rocco JW, Yom SS, Haddad RI, Saba NF
Head and neck cancer is the seventh most common type of cancer worldwide and comprise of a diverse group of tumours affecting the upper aerodigestive tract. Although many different histologies exist, the most common is squamous cell carcinoma. Predominant risk factors include tobacco use, alcohol abuse, and oncogenic viruses, including human papillomavirus and Epstein-Barr virus. Head and neck malignancies remain challenging to treat, requiring a multidisciplinary approach, with surgery, radiotherapy, and systemic therapy serving as key components of the treatment of locally advanced disease. Although many treatment principles overlap, treatment is generally site-specific and histology-specific. This Seminar outlines the current understanding of head and neck cancer and focuses on treatment principles, while also discussing future directions to improve the outcomes of patients with these malignancies.

Copyright © 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 21 Sep 2021; epub ahead of print
Mody MD, Rocco JW, Yom SS, Haddad RI, Saba NF
Lancet: 21 Sep 2021; epub ahead of print | PMID: 34562395
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Impact:
Abstract

Antibiotics for lower respiratory tract infection in children presenting in primary care in England (ARTIC PC): a double-blind, randomised, placebo-controlled trial.

Little P, Francis NA, Stuart B, O\'Reilly G, ... Moore M, Verheij T
Background
Antibiotic resistance is a global public health threat. Antibiotics are very commonly prescribed for children presenting with uncomplicated lower respiratory tract infections (LRTIs), but there is little evidence from randomised controlled trials of the effectiveness of antibiotics, both overall or among key clinical subgroups. In ARTIC PC, we assessed whether amoxicillin reduces the duration of moderately bad symptoms in children presenting with uncomplicated (non-pneumonic) LRTI in primary care, overall and in key clinical subgroups.
Methods
ARTIC PC was a double-blind, randomised, placebo-controlled trial done at 56 general practices in England. Eligible children were those aged 6 months to 12 years presenting in primary care with acute uncomplicated LRTI judged to be infective in origin, where pneumonia was not suspected clinically, with symptoms for less than 21 days. Patients were randomly assigned in a 1:1 ratio to receive amoxicillin 50 mg/kg per day or placebo oral suspension, in three divided doses orally for 7 days. Patients and investigators were masked to treatment assignment. The primary outcome was the duration of symptoms rated moderately bad or worse (measured using a validated diary) for up to 28 days or until symptoms resolved. The primary outcome and safety were assessed in the intention-to-treat population. The trial is registered with the ISRCTN Registry (ISRCTN79914298).
Findings
Between Nov 9, 2016, and March 17, 2020, 432 children (not including six who withdrew permission for use of their data after randomisation) were randomly assigned to the antibiotics group (n=221) or the placebo group (n=211). Complete data for symptom duration were available for 317 (73%) patients; missing data were imputed for the primary analysis. Median durations of moderately bad or worse symptoms were similar between the groups (5 days [IQR 4-11] in the antibiotics group vs 6 days [4-15] in the placebo group; hazard ratio [HR] 1·13 [95% CI 0·90-1·42]). No differences were seen for the primary outcome between the treatment groups in the five prespecified clinical subgroups (patients with chest signs, fever, physician rating of unwell, sputum or chest rattle, and short of breath). Estimates from complete-case analysis and a per-protocol analysis were similar to the imputed data analysis.
Interpretation
Amoxicillin for uncomplicated chest infections in children is unlikely to be clinically effective either overall or for key subgroups in whom antibiotics are commonly prescribed. Unless pneumonia is suspected, clinicians should provide safety-netting advice but not prescribe antibiotics for most children presenting with chest infections.
Funding
National Institute for Health Research.

Copyright © 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 21 Sep 2021; epub ahead of print
Little P, Francis NA, Stuart B, O'Reilly G, ... Moore M, Verheij T
Lancet: 21 Sep 2021; epub ahead of print | PMID: 34562391
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Impact:
Abstract

Prostate cancer.

Sandhu S, Moore CM, Chiong E, Beltran H, Bristow RG, Williams SG
The management of prostate cancer continues to evolve rapidly, with substantial advances being made in understanding the genomic landscape and biology underpinning both primary and metastatic prostate cancer. Similarly, the emergence of more sensitive imaging methods has improved diagnostic and staging accuracy and refined surveillance strategies. These advances have introduced personalised therapeutics to clinical practice, with treatments targeting genomic alterations in DNA repair pathways now clinically validated. An important shift in the therapeutic framework for metastatic disease has taken place, with metastatic-directed therapies being evaluated for oligometastatic disease, aggressive management of the primary lesion shown to benefit patients with low-volume metastatic disease, and with several novel androgen pathway inhibitors significantly improving survival when used as a first-line therapy for metastatic disease. Research into the molecular characterisation of localised, recurrent, and progressive disease will undoubtedly have an impact on clinical management. Similarly, emerging research into novel therapeutics, such as targeted radioisotopes and immunotherapy, holds much promise for improving the lives of patients with prostate cancer.

Copyright © 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 17 Sep 2021; 398:1075-1090
Sandhu S, Moore CM, Chiong E, Beltran H, Bristow RG, Williams SG
Lancet: 17 Sep 2021; 398:1075-1090 | PMID: 34370973
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Impact:
Abstract

Age-stratified and blood-pressure-stratified effects of blood-pressure-lowering pharmacotherapy for the prevention of cardiovascular disease and death: an individual participant-level data meta-analysis.

Blood Pressure Lowering Treatment Trialists\' Collaboration
Background
The effects of pharmacological blood-pressure-lowering on cardiovascular outcomes in individuals aged 70 years and older, particularly when blood pressure is not substantially increased, is uncertain. We compared the effects of blood-pressure-lowering treatment on the risk of major cardiovascular events in groups of patients stratified by age and blood pressure at baseline.
Methods
We did a meta-analysis using individual participant-level data from randomised controlled trials of pharmacological blood-pressure-lowering versus placebo or other classes of blood-pressure-lowering medications, or between more versus less intensive treatment strategies, which had at least 1000 persons-years of follow-up in each treatment group. Participants with previous history of heart failure were excluded. Data were obtained from the Blood Pressure Lowering Treatment Triallists\' Collaboration. We pooled the data and categorised participants into baseline age groups (<55 years, 55-64 years, 65-74 years, 75-84 years, and ≥85 years) and blood pressure categories (in 10 mm Hg increments from <120 mm Hg to ≥170 mm Hg systolic blood pressure and from <70 mm Hg to ≥110 mm Hg diastolic). We used a fixed effects one-stage approach and applied Cox proportional hazard models, stratified by trial, to analyse the data. The primary outcome was defined as either a composite of fatal or non-fatal stroke, fatal or non-fatal myocardial infarction or ischaemic heart disease, or heart failure causing death or requiring hospital admission.
Findings
We included data from 358 707 participants from 51 randomised clinical trials. The age of participants at randomisation ranged from 21 years to 105 years (median 65 years [IQR 59-75]), with 42 960 (12·0%) participants younger than 55 years, 128 437 (35·8%) aged 55-64 years, 128 506 (35·8%) 65-74 years, 54 016 (15·1%) 75-84 years, and 4788 (1·3%) 85 years and older. The hazard ratios for the risk of major cardiovascular events per 5 mm Hg reduction in systolic blood pressure for each age group were 0·82 (95% CI 0·76-0·88) in individuals younger than 55 years, 0·91 (0·88-0·95) in those aged 55-64 years, 0·91 (0·88-0·95) in those aged 65-74 years, 0·91 (0·87-0·96) in those aged 75-84 years, and 0·99 (0·87-1·12) in those aged 85 years and older (adjusted pinteraction=0·050). Similar patterns of proportional risk reductions were observed for a 3 mm Hg reduction in diastolic blood pressure. Absolute risk reductions for major cardiovascular events varied by age and were larger in older groups (adjusted pinteraction=0·024). We did not find evidence for any clinically meaningful heterogeneity of relative treatment effects across different baseline blood pressure categories in any age group.
Interpretation
Pharmacological blood pressure reduction is effective into old age, with no evidence that relative risk reductions for prevention of major cardiovascular events vary by systolic or diastolic blood pressure levels at randomisation, down to less than 120/70 mm Hg. Pharmacological blood pressure reduction should, therefore, be considered an important treatment option regardless of age, with the removal of age-related blood-pressure thresholds from international guidelines.
Funding
British Heart Foundation, National Institute of Health Research Oxford Biomedical Research Centre, Oxford Martin School.

Copyright © 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 17 Sep 2021; 398:1053-1064
Blood Pressure Lowering Treatment Trialists' Collaboration
Lancet: 17 Sep 2021; 398:1053-1064 | PMID: 34461040
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Impact:
Abstract

Initial treatment with a single pill containing quadruple combination of quarter doses of blood pressure medicines versus standard dose monotherapy in patients with hypertension (QUARTET): a phase 3, randomised, double-blind, active-controlled trial.

Chow CK, Atkins ER, Hillis GS, Nelson MR, ... Rodgers A, QUARTET Investigators
Background
Treatment inertia is a recognised barrier to blood pressure control, and simpler, more effective treatment strategies are needed. We hypothesised that a hypertension management strategy starting with a single pill containing ultra-low-dose quadruple combination therapy would be more effective than a strategy of starting with monotherapy.
Methods
QUARTET was a multicentre, double-blind, parallel-group, randomised, phase 3 trial among Australian adults (≥18 years) with hypertension, who were untreated or receiving monotherapy. Participants were randomly assigned to either treatment, that started with the quadpill (containing irbesartan at 37·5 mg, amlodipine at 1·25 mg, indapamide at 0·625 mg, and bisoprolol at 2·5 mg) or an indistinguishable monotherapy control (irbesartan 150 mg). If blood pressure was not at target, additional medications could be added in both groups, starting with amlodipine at 5 mg. Participants were randomly assigned using an online central randomisation service. There was a 1:1 allocation, stratified by site. Allocation was masked to all participants and study team members (including investigators and those assessing outcomes) except the manufacturer of the investigational product and one unmasked statistician. The primary outcome was difference in unattended office systolic blood pressure at 12 weeks. Secondary outcomes included blood pressure control (standard office blood pressure <140/90 mm Hg), safety, and tolerability. A subgroup continued randomly assigned allocation to 12 months to assess long-term effects. Analyses were per intention to treat. This trial was prospectively registered with the Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry, ACTRN12616001144404, and is now complete.
Findings
From June 8, 2017, to Aug 31, 2020, 591 participants were recruited, with 743 assessed for eligibility, 152 ineligible or declined, 300 participants randomly assigned to intervention of initial quadpill treatment, and 291 to control of initial standard dose monotherapy treatment. The mean age of the 591 participants was 59 years (SD 12); 356 (60%) were male and 235 (40%) were female; 483 (82%) were White, 70 (12%) were Asian, and 38 (6%) reported as other ethnicity; and baseline mean unattended office blood pressure was 141 mm Hg (SD 13)/85 mm Hg (SD 10). By 12 weeks, 44 (15%) of 300 participants had additional blood pressure medications in the intervention group compared with 115 (40%) of 291 participants in the control group. Systolic blood pressure was lower by 6·9 mm Hg (95% CI 4·9-8·9; p<0·0001) and blood pressure control rates were higher in the intervention group (76%) versus control group (58%; relative risk [RR] 1·30, 95% CI 1·15-1·47; p<0·0001). There was no difference in adverse event-related treatment withdrawals at 12 weeks (intervention 4·0% vs control 2·4%; p=0·27). Among the 417 patients who continued, uptitration occurred more frequently among control participants than intervention participants (p<0·0001). However, at 52 weeks mean unattended systolic blood pressure remained lower by 7·7 mm Hg (95% CI 5·2-10·3) and blood pressure control rates higher in the intervention group (81%) versus control group (62%; RR 1·32, 95% CI 1·16-1·50). In all randomly assigned participants up to 12 weeks, there were seven (3%) serious adverse events in the intervention group and three (1%) serious adverse events in the control group.
Interpretation
A strategy with early treatment of a fixed-dose quadruple quarter-dose combination achieved and maintained greater blood pressure lowering compared with the common strategy of starting monotherapy. This trial demonstrated the efficacy, tolerability, and simplicity of a quadpill-based strategy.
Funding
National Health and Medical Research Council, Australia.

Copyright © 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 17 Sep 2021; 398:1043-1052
Chow CK, Atkins ER, Hillis GS, Nelson MR, ... Rodgers A, QUARTET Investigators
Lancet: 17 Sep 2021; 398:1043-1052 | PMID: 34469767
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Impact:
Abstract

Second asymptomatic carotid surgery trial (ACST-2): a randomised comparison of carotid artery stenting versus carotid endarterectomy.

Halliday A, Bulbulia R, Bonati LH, Chester J, ... Pan H, ACST-2 Collaborative Group
Background
Among asymptomatic patients with severe carotid artery stenosis but no recent stroke or transient cerebral ischaemia, either carotid artery stenting (CAS) or carotid endarterectomy (CEA) can restore patency and reduce long-term stroke risks. However, from recent national registry data, each option causes about 1% procedural risk of disabling stroke or death. Comparison of their long-term protective effects requires large-scale randomised evidence.
Methods
ACST-2 is an international multicentre randomised trial of CAS versus CEA among asymptomatic patients with severe stenosis thought to require intervention, interpreted with all other relevant trials. Patients were eligible if they had severe unilateral or bilateral carotid artery stenosis and both doctor and patient agreed that a carotid procedure should be undertaken, but they were substantially uncertain which one to choose. Patients were randomly allocated to CAS or CEA and followed up at 1 month and then annually, for a mean 5 years. Procedural events were those within 30 days of the intervention. Intention-to-treat analyses are provided. Analyses including procedural hazards use tabular methods. Analyses and meta-analyses of non-procedural strokes use Kaplan-Meier and log-rank methods. The trial is registered with the ISRCTN registry, ISRCTN21144362.
Findings
Between Jan 15, 2008, and Dec 31, 2020, 3625 patients in 130 centres were randomly allocated, 1811 to CAS and 1814 to CEA, with good compliance, good medical therapy and a mean 5 years of follow-up. Overall, 1% had disabling stroke or death procedurally (15 allocated to CAS and 18 to CEA) and 2% had non-disabling procedural stroke (48 allocated to CAS and 29 to CEA). Kaplan-Meier estimates of 5-year non-procedural stroke were 2·5% in each group for fatal or disabling stroke, and 5·3% with CAS versus 4·5% with CEA for any stroke (rate ratio [RR] 1·16, 95% CI 0·86-1·57; p=0·33). Combining RRs for any non-procedural stroke in all CAS versus CEA trials, the RR was similar in symptomatic and asymptomatic patients (overall RR 1·11, 95% CI 0·91-1·32; p=0·21).
Interpretation
Serious complications are similarly uncommon after competent CAS and CEA, and the long-term effects of these two carotid artery procedures on fatal or disabling stroke are comparable.
Funding
UK Medical Research Council and Health Technology Assessment Programme.

Copyright © 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 17 Sep 2021; 398:1065-1073
Halliday A, Bulbulia R, Bonati LH, Chester J, ... Pan H, ACST-2 Collaborative Group
Lancet: 17 Sep 2021; 398:1065-1073 | PMID: 34469763
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Abstract

Singapore\'s health-care system: key features, challenges, and shifts.

Tan CC, Lam CSP, Matchar DB, Zee YK, Wong JEL
Since Singapore became an independent nation in 1965, the development of its health-care system has been underpinned by an emphasis on personal responsibility for health, and active government intervention to ensure access and affordability through targeted subsidies and to reduce unnecessary costs. Singapore is achieving good health outcomes, with a total health expenditure of 4·47% of gross domestic product in 2016. However, the health-care system is contending with increased stress, as reflected in so-called pain points that have led to public concern, including shortages in acute hospital beds and intermediate and long-term care (ILTC) services, and high out-of-pocket payments. The main drivers of these challenges are the rising prevalence of non-communicable diseases and rapid population ageing, limitations in the delivery and organisation of primary care and ILTC, and financial incentives that might inadvertently impede care integration. To address these challenges, Singapore\'s Ministry of Health implemented a comprehensive set of reforms in 2012 under its Healthcare 2020 Masterplan. These reforms substantially increased the capacity of public hospital beds and ILTC services in the community, expanded subsidies for primary care and long-term care, and introduced a series of financing health-care reforms to strengthen financial protection and coverage. However, it became clear that these measures alone would not address the underlying drivers of system stress in the long term. Instead, the system requires, and is making, much more fundamental changes to its approach. In 2016, the Ministry of Health encapsulated the required shifts in terms of the so-called Three Beyonds-namely, beyond health care to health, beyond hospital to community, and beyond quality to value.

Copyright © 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 17 Sep 2021; 398:1091-1104
Tan CC, Lam CSP, Matchar DB, Zee YK, Wong JEL
Lancet: 17 Sep 2021; 398:1091-1104 | PMID: 34481560
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Abstract

Worldwide trends in hypertension prevalence and progress in treatment and control from 1990 to 2019: a pooled analysis of 1201 population-representative studies with 104 million participants.

NCD Risk Factor Collaboration (NCD-RisC)
Background
Hypertension can be detected at the primary health-care level and low-cost treatments can effectively control hypertension. We aimed to measure the prevalence of hypertension and progress in its detection, treatment, and control from 1990 to 2019 for 200 countries and territories.
Methods
We used data from 1990 to 2019 on people aged 30-79 years from population-representative studies with measurement of blood pressure and data on blood pressure treatment. We defined hypertension as having systolic blood pressure 140 mm Hg or greater, diastolic blood pressure 90 mm Hg or greater, or taking medication for hypertension. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate the prevalence of hypertension and the proportion of people with hypertension who had a previous diagnosis (detection), who were taking medication for hypertension (treatment), and whose hypertension was controlled to below 140/90 mm Hg (control). The model allowed for trends over time to be non-linear and to vary by age.
Findings
The number of people aged 30-79 years with hypertension doubled from 1990 to 2019, from 331 (95% credible interval 306-359) million women and 317 (292-344) million men in 1990 to 626 (584-668) million women and 652 (604-698) million men in 2019, despite stable global age-standardised prevalence. In 2019, age-standardised hypertension prevalence was lowest in Canada and Peru for both men and women; in Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, and some countries in western Europe including Switzerland, Spain, and the UK for women; and in several low-income and middle-income countries such as Eritrea, Bangladesh, Ethiopia, and Solomon Islands for men. Hypertension prevalence surpassed 50% for women in two countries and men in nine countries, in central and eastern Europe, central Asia, Oceania, and Latin America. Globally, 59% (55-62) of women and 49% (46-52) of men with hypertension reported a previous diagnosis of hypertension in 2019, and 47% (43-51) of women and 38% (35-41) of men were treated. Control rates among people with hypertension in 2019 were 23% (20-27) for women and 18% (16-21) for men. In 2019, treatment and control rates were highest in South Korea, Canada, and Iceland (treatment >70%; control >50%), followed by the USA, Costa Rica, Germany, Portugal, and Taiwan. Treatment rates were less than 25% for women and less than 20% for men in Nepal, Indonesia, and some countries in sub-Saharan Africa and Oceania. Control rates were below 10% for women and men in these countries and for men in some countries in north Africa, central and south Asia, and eastern Europe. Treatment and control rates have improved in most countries since 1990, but we found little change in most countries in sub-Saharan Africa and Oceania. Improvements were largest in high-income countries, central Europe, and some upper-middle-income and recently high-income countries including Costa Rica, Taiwan, Kazakhstan, South Africa, Brazil, Chile, Turkey, and Iran.
Interpretation
Improvements in the detection, treatment, and control of hypertension have varied substantially across countries, with some middle-income countries now outperforming most high-income nations. The dual approach of reducing hypertension prevalence through primary prevention and enhancing its treatment and control is achievable not only in high-income countries but also in low-income and middle-income settings.
Funding
WHO.

Copyright © 2021 World Health Organization; licensee Elsevier. This is an Open Access article published under the CC BY 3.0 IGO license which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. In any use of this article, there should be no suggestion that WHO endorses any specific organisation, products or services. The use of the WHO logo is not permitted. This notice should be preserved along with the article\'s original URL.

Lancet: 10 Sep 2021; 398:957-980
NCD Risk Factor Collaboration (NCD-RisC)
Lancet: 10 Sep 2021; 398:957-980 | PMID: 34450083
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Abstract

Immune checkpoint inhibitors in melanoma.

Carlino MS, Larkin J, Long GV
Immune checkpoint inhibitors target the dysfunctional immune system, to induce cancer-cell killing by CD8-positive T cells. Immune checkpoint inhibitors, specifically anti-CTLA4 and anti-PD-1 antibodies, have revolutionised the management of many cancers, particularly advanced melanoma, for which tumour regression and long-term durable cancer control is possible in nearly 50% of patients, compared with less than 10% historically. Despite the absence of adequately powered trial data, combined anti-CTLA4 and anti-PD-1 checkpoint inhibition has the highest 5-year overall survival rate of all therapies in advanced melanoma, and has high activity in melanoma brain metastases. A phase 3 study has shown the addition of an anti-LAG3 antibody to nivolumab improves progression-free survival, but its effect on overall survival and how this combination compares to combined anti-CTLA4 and anti-PD-1 checkpoint inhibition is unknown. At present, there are no highly sensitive and specific biomarkers of response to immune checkpoint inhibitors, and clinical factors, such as volume and sites of disease, serum lactate dehydrogenase, and BRAF mutation status, are used to select initial therapy for patients with advanced melanoma. Immune checkpoint inhibitors can induce autoimmune toxicities by virtue of their mechanism of action. These toxicities, termed immune-related adverse events, occur most frequently with combined anti-CTLA4 and anti-PD-1 checkpoint inhibition; can have a variety of presentations; can affect any organ system (most often the skin, colon, endocrine system, and liver); and appear to mimic classic autoimmune diseases. Immune-related adverse events require prompt recognition and management, which may be different from the autoimmune disease it mimics. Immune checkpoint inhibitors appear to be safe for use in patients with HIV, viral hepatitis, and patients with mild-to-moderate pre-existing autoimmune diseases. Patients with organ transplants can respond to immune checkpoint inhibitors but have a high chance of transplant loss. PD-1 inhibitors are now an established standard of care as adjuvant therapy in high-risk resected stage III or IV melanoma. Neoadjuvant checkpoint inhibition for resectable stage III melanoma, which is currently limited to clinical trials, is emerging as a highly effective therapy.

Copyright © 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 10 Sep 2021; 398:1002-1014
Carlino MS, Larkin J, Long GV
Lancet: 10 Sep 2021; 398:1002-1014 | PMID: 34509219
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Abstract

Global perspective of familial hypercholesterolaemia: a cross-sectional study from the EAS Familial Hypercholesterolaemia Studies Collaboration (FHSC).

EAS Familial Hypercholesterolaemia Studies Collaboration (FHSC)
Background
The European Atherosclerosis Society Familial Hypercholesterolaemia Studies Collaboration (FHSC) global registry provides a platform for the global surveillance of familial hypercholesterolaemia through harmonisation and pooling of multinational data. In this study, we aimed to characterise the adult population with heterozygous familial hypercholesterolaemia and described how it is detected and managed globally.
Methods
Using FHSC global registry data, we did a cross-sectional assessment of adults (aged 18 years or older) with a clinical or genetic diagnosis of probable or definite heterozygous familial hypercholesterolaemia at the time they were entered into the registries. Data were assessed overall and by WHO regions, sex, and index versus non-index cases.
Findings
Of the 61 612 individuals in the registry, 42 167 adults (21 999 [53·6%] women) from 56 countries were included in the study. Of these, 31 798 (75·4%) were diagnosed with the Dutch Lipid Clinic Network criteria, and 35 490 (84·2%) were from the WHO region of Europe. Median age of participants at entry in the registry was 46·2 years (IQR 34·3-58·0); median age at diagnosis of familial hypercholesterolaemia was 44·4 years (32·5-56·5), with 40·2% of participants younger than 40 years when diagnosed. Prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors increased progressively with age and varied by WHO region. Prevalence of coronary disease was 17·4% (2·1% for stroke and 5·2% for peripheral artery disease), increasing with concentrations of untreated LDL cholesterol, and was about two times lower in women than in men. Among patients receiving lipid-lowering medications, 16 803 (81·1%) were receiving statins and 3691 (21·2%) were on combination therapy, with greater use of more potent lipid-lowering medication in men than in women. Median LDL cholesterol was 5·43 mmol/L (IQR 4·32-6·72) among patients not taking lipid-lowering medications and 4·23 mmol/L (3·20-5·66) among those taking them. Among patients taking lipid-lowering medications, 2·7% had LDL cholesterol lower than 1·8 mmol/L; the use of combination therapy, particularly with three drugs and with proprotein convertase subtilisin-kexin type 9 inhibitors, was associated with a higher proportion and greater odds of having LDL cholesterol lower than 1·8 mmol/L. Compared with index cases, patients who were non-index cases were younger, with lower LDL cholesterol and lower prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors and cardiovascular diseases (all p<0·001).
Interpretation
Familial hypercholesterolaemia is diagnosed late. Guideline-recommended LDL cholesterol concentrations are infrequently achieved with single-drug therapy. Cardiovascular risk factors and presence of coronary disease were lower among non-index cases, who were diagnosed earlier. Earlier detection and greater use of combination therapies are required to reduce the global burden of familial hypercholesterolaemia.
Funding
Pfizer, Amgen, Merck Sharp & Dohme, Sanofi-Aventis, Daiichi Sankyo, and Regeneron.

Copyright © 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 06 Sep 2021; epub ahead of print
EAS Familial Hypercholesterolaemia Studies Collaboration (FHSC)
Lancet: 06 Sep 2021; epub ahead of print | PMID: 34506743
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Abstract

Treatment of fibrotic interstitial lung disease: current approaches and future directions.

Johannson KA, Chaudhuri N, Adegunsoye A, Wolters PJ
Fibrotic interstitial lung disease (ILD) represents a large group of pulmonary disorders that are often progressive and associated with high morbidity and early mortality. Important advancements in the past 10 years have enabled a better understanding, characterisation, and treatment of these diseases. This Series paper summarises the current approach to treatment of fibrotic ILDs, both pharmacological and non-pharmacological, including recent discoveries and practice-changing clinical trials. We further outline controversies and challenges, with discussion of evolving concepts and future research directions.

Copyright © 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 05 Sep 2021; epub ahead of print
Johannson KA, Chaudhuri N, Adegunsoye A, Wolters PJ
Lancet: 05 Sep 2021; epub ahead of print | PMID: 34499866
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Abstract

Disease pathology in fibrotic interstitial lung disease: is it all about usual interstitial pneumonia?

Renzoni EA, Poletti V, Mackintosh JA
The interstitial pneumonias comprise a diverse group of diseases that are typically defined by their cause (either idiopathic or non-idiopathic) and their distinct histopathological features, for which radiology, in the form of high-resolution CT, is often used as a surrogate. One trend, fuelled by the failure of conventional therapies in a subset of patients and the broad-spectrum use of antifibrotic therapies, has been the focus on the progressive fibrosing phenotype of interstitial lung disease. The histological pattern, known as usual interstitial pneumonia, is the archetype of progressive fibrosis. However, it is clear that progressive fibrosis is not exclusive to this histological entity. Techniques including immunohistochemistry and single-cell RNA sequencing are providing pathogenetic insights and, if integrated with traditional histopathology, are likely to have an effect on the pathological classification of interstitial lung disease. This review, which focuses on the histopathology of interstitial lung disease and its relationship with progressive fibrosis, asks the question: is it all about usual interstitial pneumonia?

Copyright © 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 05 Sep 2021; epub ahead of print
Renzoni EA, Poletti V, Mackintosh JA
Lancet: 05 Sep 2021; epub ahead of print | PMID: 34499865
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Abstract

Community-acquired pneumonia.

Aliberti S, Dela Cruz CS, Amati F, Sotgiu G, Restrepo MI
Community-acquired pneumonia is not usually considered a high-priority problem by the public, although it is responsible for substantial mortality, with a third of patients dying within 1 year after being discharged from hospital for pneumoniae. Although up to 18% of patients with community-acquired pneumonia who were hospitalised (admitted to hospital and treated there) have at least one risk factor for immunosuppression worldwide, strong evidence on community-acquired pneumonia management in this population is scarce. Several features of clinical management for community-acquired pneumonia should be addressed to reduce mortality, morbidity, and complications related to community-acquired pneumonia in patients who are immunocompetent and patients who are immunocompromised. These features include rapid diagnosis, microbiological investigation, prevention and management of complications (eg, respiratory failure, sepsis, and multiorgan failure), empirical antibiotic therapy in accordance with patient\'s risk factors and local microbiological epidemiology, individualised antibiotic therapy according to microbiological data, appropriate outcomes for therapeutic switch from parenteral to oral antibiotics, discharge planning, and long-term follow-up. This Seminar offers an updated view on community-acquired pneumonia in adults, with suggestions for clinical and translational research.

Copyright © 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 03 Sep 2021; 398:906-919
Aliberti S, Dela Cruz CS, Amati F, Sotgiu G, Restrepo MI
Lancet: 03 Sep 2021; 398:906-919 | PMID: 34481570
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Abstract

Chronic kidney disease.

Kalantar-Zadeh K, Jafar TH, Nitsch D, Neuen BL, Perkovic V
Chronic kidney disease is a progressive disease with no cure and high morbidity and mortality that occurs commonly in the general adult population, especially in people with diabetes and hypertension. Preservation of kidney function can improve outcomes and can be achieved through non-pharmacological strategies (eg, dietary and lifestyle adjustments) and chronic kidney disease-targeted and kidney disease-specific pharmacological interventions. A plant-dominant, low-protein, and low-salt diet might help to mitigate glomerular hyperfiltration and preserve renal function for longer, possibly while also leading to favourable alterations in acid-base homoeostasis and in the gut microbiome. Pharmacotherapies that alter intrarenal haemodynamics (eg, renin-angiotensin-aldosterone pathway modulators and SGLT2 [SLC5A2] inhibitors) can preserve kidney function by reducing intraglomerular pressure independently of blood pressure and glucose control, whereas other novel agents (eg, non-steroidal mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists) might protect the kidney through anti-inflammatory or antifibrotic mechanisms. Some glomerular and cystic kidney diseases might benefit from disease-specific therapies. Managing chronic kidney disease-associated cardiovascular risk, minimising the risk of infection, and preventing acute kidney injury are crucial interventions for these patients, given the high burden of complications, associated morbidity and mortality, and the role of non-conventional risk factors in chronic kidney disease. When renal replacement therapy becomes inevitable, an incremental transition to dialysis can be considered and has been proposed to possibly preserve residual kidney function longer. There are similarities and distinctions between kidney-preserving care and supportive care. Additional studies of dietary and pharmacological interventions and development of innovative strategies are necessary to ensure optimal kidney-preserving care and to achieve greater longevity and better health-related quality of life for these patients.

Copyright © 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 27 Aug 2021; 398:786-802
Kalantar-Zadeh K, Jafar TH, Nitsch D, Neuen BL, Perkovic V
Lancet: 27 Aug 2021; 398:786-802 | PMID: 34175022
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Abstract

Current and future status of JAK inhibitors.

McLornan DP, Pope JE, Gotlib J, Harrison CN
An enhanced understanding of the importance of Janus kinase (JAK) and signal transducer and activator of transcription (STAT) signalling in multiple disease states has led to an increasing applicability of therapeutic intervention with JAK inhibitors. These agents have revolutionised treatments for a heterogeneous group of disorders, such as myeloproliferative neoplasms, rheumatoid arthritis, inflammatory bowel disease, and multiple immune-driven dermatological diseases, exemplifying rapid bench-to-bedside translation. In this Therapeutics paper, we summarise the currently available data concerning the successes and safety of an array of JAK inhibitors and hypothesise on how these fields could develop.

Copyright © 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 27 Aug 2021; 398:803-816
McLornan DP, Pope JE, Gotlib J, Harrison CN
Lancet: 27 Aug 2021; 398:803-816 | PMID: 34454676
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Abstract

Implantable loop recorder detection of atrial fibrillation to prevent stroke (The LOOP Study): a randomised controlled trial.

Svendsen JH, Diederichsen SZ, Højberg S, Krieger DW, ... Haugan KJ, Køber L
Background
It is unknown whether screening for atrial fibrillation and subsequent treatment with anticoagulants if atrial fibrillation is detected can prevent stroke. Continuous electrocardiographic monitoring using an implantable loop recorder (ILR) can facilitate detection of asymptomatic atrial fibrillation episodes. We aimed to investigate whether atrial fibrillation screening and use of anticoagulants can prevent stroke in individuals at high risk.
Methods
We did a randomised controlled trial in four centres in Denmark. We included individuals without atrial fibrillation, aged 70-90 years, with at least one additional stroke risk factor (ie, hypertension, diabetes, previous stroke, or heart failure). Participants were randomly assigned in a 1:3 ratio to ILR monitoring or usual care (control) via an online system in permuted blocks with block sizes of four or eight participants stratified according to centre. In the ILR group, anticoagulation was recommended if atrial fibrillation episodes lasted 6 min or longer. The primary outcome was time to first stroke or systemic arterial embolism. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02036450.
Findings
From Jan 31, 2014, to May 17, 2016, 6205 individuals were screened for inclusion, of whom 6004 were included and randomly assigned: 1501 (25·0%) to ILR monitoring and 4503 (75·0%) to usual care. Mean age was 74·7 years (SD 4·1), 2837 (47·3%) were women, and 5444 (90·7%) had hypertension. No participants were lost to follow-up. During a median follow-up of 64·5 months (IQR 59·3-69·8), atrial fibrillation was diagnosed in 1027 participants: 477 (31·8%) of 1501 in the ILR group versus 550 (12·2%) of 4503 in the control group (hazard ratio [HR] 3·17 [95% CI 2·81-3·59]; p<0·0001). Oral anticoagulation was initiated in 1036 participants: 445 (29·7%) in the ILR group versus 591 (13·1%) in the control group (HR 2·72 [95% CI 2·41-3·08]; p<0·0001), and the primary outcome occurred in 318 participants (315 stroke, three systemic arterial embolism): 67 (4·5%) in the ILR group versus 251 (5·6%) in the control group (HR 0·80 [95% CI 0·61-1·05]; p=0·11). Major bleeding occurred in 221 participants: 65 (4·3%) in the ILR group versus 156 (3·5%) in the control group (HR 1·26 [95% CI 0·95-1·69]; p=0·11).
Interpretation
In individuals with stroke risk factors, ILR screening resulted in a three-times increase in atrial fibrillation detection and anticoagulation initiation but no significant reduction in the risk of stroke or systemic arterial embolism. These findings might imply that not all atrial fibrillation is worth screening for, and not all screen-detected atrial fibrillation merits anticoagulation.
Funding
Innovation Fund Denmark, The Research Foundation for the Capital Region of Denmark, The Danish Heart Foundation, Aalborg University Talent Management Program, Arvid Nilssons Fond, Skibsreder Per Henriksen, R og Hustrus Fond, The AFFECT-EU Consortium (EU Horizon 2020), Læge Sophus Carl Emil Friis og hustru Olga Doris Friis\' Legat, and Medtronic.

Copyright © 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 26 Aug 2021; epub ahead of print
Svendsen JH, Diederichsen SZ, Højberg S, Krieger DW, ... Haugan KJ, Køber L
Lancet: 26 Aug 2021; epub ahead of print | PMID: 34469766
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Abstract

Clinical outcomes in systematic screening for atrial fibrillation (STROKESTOP): a multicentre, parallel group, unmasked, randomised controlled trial.

Svennberg E, Friberg L, Frykman V, Al-Khalili F, Engdahl J, Rosenqvist M
Background
Atrial fibrillation is a leading cause of ischaemic stroke. Early detection of atrial fibrillation can enable anticoagulant therapy to reduce ischaemic stroke and mortality. In this randomised study in an older population, we aimed to assess whether systematic screening for atrial fibrillation could reduce mortality and morbidity compared with no screening.
Methods
STROKESTOP was a multicentre, parallel group, unmasked, randomised controlled trial done in Halland and Stockholm in Sweden. All 75-76-year-olds residing in these two regions were randomly assigned (1:1) to be invited to screening for atrial fibrillation or to a control group. Participants attended local screening centres and those without a history of atrial fibrillation were asked to register intermittent electrocardiograms (ECGs) for 14 days. Treatment with oral anticoagulants was offered if atrial fibrillation was detected or untreated. All randomly assigned individuals were followed up in the intention-to-treat analysis for a minimum of 5 years for the primary combined endpoint of ischaemic or haemorrhagic stroke, systemic embolism, bleeding leading to hospitalisation, and all-cause death. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT01593553.
Findings
From March 1, 2012, to May 28, 2014, 28 768 individuals were assessed for eligibility and randomly assigned to be invited to screening (n=14 387) or the control group (n=14 381). 408 individuals were excluded from the intervention group and 385 were excluded from the control group due to death or migration before invitation. There was no loss to follow-up. Of those invited to screening, 7165 (51·3%) of 13 979 participated. After a median follow-up of 6·9 years (IQR 6·5-7·2), significantly fewer primary endpoint events occurred in the intervention group (4456 [31·9%] of 13 979; 5·45 events per 100 years [95% CI 5·52-5·61]) than in the control group (4616 [33·0%] of 13 996; 5·68 events per 100 years [5·52-5·85]; hazard ratio 0·96 [95% CI 0·92-1·00]; p=0·045).
Interpretation
Screening for atrial fibrillation showed a small net benefit compared with standard of care, indicating that screening is safe and beneficial in older populations.
Funding
Stockholm County Council, the Swedish Heart & Lung Foundation, King Gustav V and Queen Victoria\'s Freemasons\' Foundation, the Klebergska Foundation, the Tornspiran Foundation, the Scientific Council of Halland Region, the Southern Regional Healthcare Committee, the Swedish Stroke Fund, Carl Bennet AB, Boehringer Ingelheim, Bayer, and Bristol Myers Squibb-Pfizer.

Copyright © 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 26 Aug 2021; epub ahead of print
Svennberg E, Friberg L, Frykman V, Al-Khalili F, Engdahl J, Rosenqvist M
Lancet: 26 Aug 2021; epub ahead of print | PMID: 34469764
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Abstract

Redefining β-blocker response in heart failure patients with sinus rhythm and atrial fibrillation: a machine learning cluster analysis.

Karwath A, Bunting KV, Gill SK, Tica O, ... Kotecha D, card AIc group and the Beta-blockers in Heart Failure Collaborative Group
Background
Mortality remains unacceptably high in patients with heart failure and reduced left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) despite advances in therapeutics. We hypothesised that a novel artificial intelligence approach could better assess multiple and higher-dimension interactions of comorbidities, and define clusters of β-blocker efficacy in patients with sinus rhythm and atrial fibrillation.
Methods
Neural network-based variational autoencoders and hierarchical clustering were applied to pooled individual patient data from nine double-blind, randomised, placebo-controlled trials of β blockers. All-cause mortality during median 1·3 years of follow-up was assessed by intention to treat, stratified by electrocardiographic heart rhythm. The number of clusters and dimensions was determined objectively, with results validated using a leave-one-trial-out approach. This study was prospectively registered with ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT00832442) and the PROSPERO database of systematic reviews (CRD42014010012).
Findings
15 659 patients with heart failure and LVEF of less than 50% were included, with median age 65 years (IQR 56-72) and LVEF 27% (IQR 21-33). 3708 (24%) patients were women. In sinus rhythm (n=12 822), most clusters demonstrated a consistent overall mortality benefit from β blockers, with odds ratios (ORs) ranging from 0·54 to 0·74. One cluster in sinus rhythm of older patients with less severe symptoms showed no significant efficacy (OR 0·86, 95% CI 0·67-1·10; p=0·22). In atrial fibrillation (n=2837), four of five clusters were consistent with the overall neutral effect of β blockers versus placebo (OR 0·92, 0·77-1·10; p=0·37). One cluster of younger atrial fibrillation patients at lower mortality risk but similar LVEF to average had a statistically significant reduction in mortality with β blockers (OR 0·57, 0·35-0·93; p=0·023). The robustness and consistency of clustering was confirmed for all models (p<0·0001 vs random), and cluster membership was externally validated across the nine independent trials.
Interpretation
An artificial intelligence-based clustering approach was able to distinguish prognostic response from β blockers in patients with heart failure and reduced LVEF. This included patients in sinus rhythm with suboptimal efficacy, as well as a cluster of patients with atrial fibrillation where β blockers did reduce mortality.
Funding
Medical Research Council, UK, and EU/EFPIA Innovative Medicines Initiative [email protected]

Copyright © 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 26 Aug 2021; epub ahead of print
Karwath A, Bunting KV, Gill SK, Tica O, ... Kotecha D, card AIc group and the Beta-blockers in Heart Failure Collaborative Group
Lancet: 26 Aug 2021; epub ahead of print | PMID: 34474011
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Abstract

Hot weather and heat extremes: health risks.

Ebi KL, Capon A, Berry P, Broderick C, ... Vanos J, Jay O
Hot ambient conditions and associated heat stress can increase mortality and morbidity, as well as increase adverse pregnancy outcomes and negatively affect mental health. High heat stress can also reduce physical work capacity and motor-cognitive performances, with consequences for productivity, and increase the risk of occupational health problems. Almost half of the global population and more than 1 billion workers are exposed to high heat episodes and about a third of all exposed workers have negative health effects. However, excess deaths and many heat-related health risks are preventable, with appropriate heat action plans involving behavioural strategies and biophysical solutions. Extreme heat events are becoming permanent features of summer seasons worldwide, causing many excess deaths. Heat-related morbidity and mortality are projected to increase further as climate change progresses, with greater risk associated with higher degrees of global warming. Particularly in tropical regions, increased warming might mean that physiological limits related to heat tolerance (survival) will be reached regularly and more often in coming decades. Climate change is interacting with other trends, such as population growth and ageing, urbanisation, and socioeconomic development, that can either exacerbate or ameliorate heat-related hazards. Urban temperatures are further enhanced by anthropogenic heat from vehicular transport and heat waste from buildings. Although there is some evidence of adaptation to increasing temperatures in high-income countries, projections of a hotter future suggest that without investment in research and risk management actions, heat-related morbidity and mortality are likely to increase.

Copyright © 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 20 Aug 2021; 398:698-708
Ebi KL, Capon A, Berry P, Broderick C, ... Vanos J, Jay O
Lancet: 20 Aug 2021; 398:698-708 | PMID: 34419205
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Impact:
Abstract

Chronic myeloid leukaemia.

Cortes J, Pavlovsky C, Saußele S
Tyrosine-kinase inhibitors have changed the natural history of chronic myeloid leukaemia in such a way that patients with adequate access to these agents, who are properly managed, and who respond well to this treatment can expect a near-normal life expectancy. Achieving this goal requires an adequate understanding of the patient\'s treatment goals, careful monitoring for the achievement of optimal response hallmarks, implementation of proper interventions according to the attainment of such endpoints, adequate recognition and management of adverse events, and acknowledgment of the relevance of comorbidities. Treatment with tyrosine-kinase inhibitors, once considered lifelong, has become terminable for at least some patients, and promising new agents are emerging for those whose disease does not respond to any of the multiple therapeutic options currently available. If these advances reach all patients with chronic myeloid leukaemia, cure might eventually become a reality in most instances.

Copyright © 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 19 Aug 2021; epub ahead of print
Cortes J, Pavlovsky C, Saußele S
Lancet: 19 Aug 2021; epub ahead of print | PMID: 34425075
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Abstract

Parental education and inequalities in child mortality: a global systematic review and meta-analysis.

Balaj M, York HW, Sripada K, Besnier E, ... Gakidou E, Eikemo TA
Background
The educational attainment of parents, particularly mothers, has been associated with lower levels of child mortality, yet there is no consensus on the magnitude of this relationship globally. We aimed to estimate the total reductions in under-5 mortality that are associated with increased maternal and paternal education, during distinct age intervals.
Methods
This study is a comprehensive global systematic review and meta-analysis of all existing studies of the effects of parental education on neonatal, infant, and under-5 child mortality, combined with primary analyses of Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) data. The literature search of seven databases (CINAHL, Embase, MEDLINE, PsycINFO, PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Science) was done between Jan 23 and Feb 8, 2019, and updated on Jan 7, 2021, with no language or publication date restrictions. Teams of independent reviewers assessed each record for its inclusion of individual-level data on parental education and child mortality and excluded articles on the basis of study design and availability of relevant statistics. Full-text screening was done in 15 languages. Data extracted from these studies were combined with primary microdata from the DHS for meta-analyses relating maternal or paternal education with mortality at six age intervals: 0-27 days, 1-11 months, 1-4 years, 0-4 years, 0-11 months, and 1 month to 4 years. Novel mixed-effects meta-regression models were implemented to address heterogeneity in referent and exposure measures among the studies and to adjust for study-level covariates (wealth or income, partner\'s years of schooling, and sex of the child). This study was registered with PROSPERO (CRD42020141731).
Findings
The systematic review returned 5339 unique records, yielding 186 included studies after exclusions. DHS data were compiled from 114 unique surveys, capturing 3 112 474 livebirths. Data extracted from the systematic review were synthesized together with primary DHS data, for meta-analysis on a total of 300 studies from 92 countries. Both increased maternal and paternal education showed a dose-response relationship linked to reduced under-5 mortality, with maternal education emerging as a stronger predictor. We observed a reduction in under-5 mortality of 31·0% (95% CI 29·0-32·6) for children born to mothers with 12 years of education (ie, completed secondary education) and 17·3% (15·0-18·8) for children born to fathers with 12 years of education, compared with those born to a parent with no education. We also showed that a single additional year of schooling was, on average, associated with a reduction in under-5 mortality of 3·04% (2·82-3·23) for maternal education and 1·57% (1·35-1·72) for paternal education. The association between higher parental education and lower child mortality was significant for both parents at all ages studied and was largest after the first month of life. The meta-analysis framework incorporated uncertainty associated with each individual effect size into the model fitting process, in an effort to decrease the risk of bias introduced by study design and quality.
Interpretation
To our knowledge, this study is the first effort to systematically quantify the transgenerational importance of education for child survival at the global level. The results showed that lower maternal and paternal education are both risk factors for child mortality, even after controlling for other markers of family socioeconomic status. This study provides robust evidence for universal quality education as a mechanism to achieve the Sustainable Development Goal target 3.2 of reducing neonatal and child mortality.
Funding
Research Council of Norway, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and Rockefeller Foundation-Boston University Commission on Social Determinants, Data, and Decision Making (3-D Commission).

Copyright © 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 13 Aug 2021; 398:608-620
Balaj M, York HW, Sripada K, Besnier E, ... Gakidou E, Eikemo TA
Lancet: 13 Aug 2021; 398:608-620 | PMID: 34119000
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This program is still in alpha version.