Journal: Lancet

Sorted by: date / impact
Abstract

Global estimates of the need for rehabilitation based on the Global Burden of Disease study 2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

Cieza A, Causey K, Kamenov K, Hanson SW, Chatterji S, Vos T
Background
Rehabilitation has often been seen as a disability-specific service needed by only few of the population. Despite its individual and societal benefits, rehabilitation has not been prioritised in countries and is under-resourced. We present global, regional, and country data for the number of people who would benefit from rehabilitation at least once during the course of their disabling illness or injury.
Methods
To estimate the need for rehabilitation, data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 were used to calculate the prevalence and years of life lived with disability (YLDs) of 25 diseases, impairments, or bespoke aggregations of sequelae that were selected as amenable to rehabilitation. All analyses were done at the country level and then aggregated to seven regions: World Bank high-income countries and the six WHO regions (ie, Africa, the Americas, Southeast Asia, Europe, Eastern Mediterranean, and Western Pacific).
Findings
Globally, in 2019, 2·41 billion (95% uncertainty interval 2·34-2·50) individuals had conditions that would benefit from rehabilitation, contributing to 310 million [235-392] YLDs. This number had increased by 63% from 1990 to 2019. Regionally, the Western Pacific had the highest need of rehabilitation services (610 million people [588-636] and 83 million YLDs [62-106]). The disease area that contributed most to prevalence was musculoskeletal disorders (1·71 billion people [1·68-1·80]), with low back pain being the most prevalent condition in 134 of the 204 countries analysed.
Interpretation
To our knowledge, this is the first study to produce a global estimate of the need for rehabilitation services and to show that at least one in every three people in the world needs rehabilitation at some point in the course of their illness or injury. This number counters the common view of rehabilitation as a service required by only few people. We argue that rehabilitation needs to be brought close to communities as an integral part of primary health care to reach more people in need.
Funding
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Copyright © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article published under the CC BY-NC-ND 3.0 IGO license which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. In any use of this article, there should be no suggestion that WHO endorses any specific organisation, products or services. The use of the WHO logo is not permitted. This notice should be preserved along with the article\'s original URL.

Lancet: 18 Dec 2021; 396:2006-2017
Cieza A, Causey K, Kamenov K, Hanson SW, Chatterji S, Vos T
Lancet: 18 Dec 2021; 396:2006-2017 | PMID: 33275908
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Abstract

Long-acting cabotegravir and rilpivirine dosed every 2 months in adults with HIV-1 infection (ATLAS-2M), 48-week results: a randomised, multicentre, open-label, phase 3b, non-inferiority study.

Overton ET, Richmond G, Rizzardini G, Jaeger H, ... Vanveggel S, Spreen W
Background
Phase 3 clinical studies showed non-inferiority of long-acting intramuscular cabotegravir and rilpivirine dosed every 4 weeks to oral antiretroviral therapy. Important phase 2 results of every 8 weeks dosing, and supportive modelling, underpin further evaluation of every 8 weeks dosing in this trial, which has the potential to offer greater convenience. Our objective was to compare the week 48 antiviral efficacy of cabotegravir plus rilpivirine long-acting dosed every 8 weeks with that of every 4 weeks dosing.
Methods
ATLAS-2M is an ongoing, randomised, multicentre (13 countries; Australia, Argentina, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Mexico, Russia, South Africa, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, and the USA), open-label, phase 3b, non-inferiority study of cabotegravir plus rilpivirine long-acting maintenance therapy administered intramuscularly every 8 weeks (cabotegravir 600 mg plus rilpivirine 900 mg) or every 4 weeks (cabotegravir 400 mg plus rilpivirine 600 mg) to treatment-experienced adults living with HIV-1. Eligible newly recruited individuals must have received an uninterrupted first or second oral standard-of-care regimen for at least 6 months without virological failure and be aged 18 years or older. Eligible participants from the ATLAS trial, from both the oral standard-of-care and long-acting groups, must have completed the 52-week comparative phase with an ATLAS-2M screening plasma HIV-1 RNA less than 50 copies per mL. Participants were randomly assigned 1:1 to receive cabotegravir plus rilpivirine long-acting every 8 weeks or every 4 weeks. The randomisation schedule was generated by means of the GlaxoSmithKline validated randomisation software RANDALL NG. The primary endpoint at week 48 was HIV-1 RNA ≥50 copies per mL (Snapshot, intention-to-treat exposed), with a non-inferiority margin of 4%. The trial is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03299049 and is ongoing.
Findings
Screening occurred between Oct 27, 2017, and May 31, 2018. Of 1149 individuals screened, 1045 participants were randomised to the every 8 weeks (n=522) or every 4 weeks (n=523) groups; 37% (n=391) transitioned from every 4 weeks cabotegravir plus rilpivirine long-acting in ATLAS. Median participant age was 42 years (IQR 34-50); 27% (n=280) female at birth; 73% (n=763) white race. Cabotegravir plus rilpivirine long-acting every 8 weeks was non-inferior to dosing every 4 weeks (HIV-1 RNA ≥50 copies per mL; 2% vs 1%) with an adjusted treatment difference of 0·8 (95% CI -0·6-2·2). There were eight (2%, every 8 weeks group) and two (<1%, every 4 weeks group) confirmed virological failures (two sequential measures ≥200 copies per mL). For the every 8 weeks group, five (63%) of eight had archived non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor resistance-associated mutations to rilpivirine at baseline. The safety profile was similar between dosing groups, with 844 (81%) of 1045 participants having adverse events (excluding injection site reactions); no treatment-related deaths occurred.
Interpretation
The efficacy and safety profiles of dosing every 8 weeks and dosing every 4 weeks were similar. These results support the use of cabotegravir plus rilpivirine long-acting administered every 2 months as a therapeutic option for people living with HIV-1.
Funding
ViiV Healthcare and Janssen.

Copyright © 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 18 Dec 2021; 396:1994-2005
Overton ET, Richmond G, Rizzardini G, Jaeger H, ... Vanveggel S, Spreen W
Lancet: 18 Dec 2021; 396:1994-2005 | PMID: 33308425
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Abstract

Migraine: epidemiology and systems of care.

Ashina M, Katsarava Z, Do TP, Buse DC, ... Steiner TJ, Lipton RB
Migraine is a neurovascular disorder that affects over 1 billion people worldwide. Its widespread prevalence, and associated disability, have a range of negative and substantial effects not only on those immediately affected but also on their families, colleagues, employers, and society. To reduce this global burden, concerted efforts are needed to implement and improve migraine care that is supported by informed health-care policies. In this Series paper, we summarise the data on migraine epidemiology, including estimates of its very considerable burden on the global economy. First, we present the challenges that continue to obstruct provision of adequate care worldwide. Second, we outline the advantages of integrated and coordinated systems of care, in which primary and specialist care complement and support each other; the use of comprehensive referral and linkage protocols should enable continuity of care between these systems levels. Finally, we describe challenges in low and middle-income countries, including countries with poor public health education, inadequate access to medication, and insufficient formal education and training of health-care professionals resulting in misdiagnosis, mismanagement, and wastage of resources.

Copyright © 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 16 Apr 2021; 397:1485-1495
Ashina M, Katsarava Z, Do TP, Buse DC, ... Steiner TJ, Lipton RB
Lancet: 16 Apr 2021; 397:1485-1495 | PMID: 33773613
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Abstract

Migraine: integrated approaches to clinical management and emerging treatments.

Ashina M, Buse DC, Ashina H, Pozo-Rosich P, ... Mitsikostas DD, Dodick DW
Migraine is a highly disabling neurological disorder that directly affects more than 1 billion individuals worldwide. Available treatment options differ between countries and include acute, preventive, and non-pharmacological therapies. Because of major progress in the understanding of migraine pathogenesis, novel mechanism-based medications have emerged and expanded the armamentarium of treatments. We provide a comprehensive overview of the current standard of care that will enable informed clinical management. First, we discuss the efficacy, tolerability, and safety profile of various pharmacological therapies for acute and preventive treatment of migraine. Second, we review the current knowledge on non-pharmacological therapies, such as neuromodulation and biobehavioural approaches, which can be used for a multidisciplinary approach to clinical management. Third, we emphasise that any effective treatment strategy starts with building a therapeutic plan tailored to individual clinical characteristics, preferences, and needs. Finally, we explore the outlook of emerging mechanism-based treatments that could address unmet challenges in clinical management of migraine.

Copyright © 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 16 Apr 2021; 397:1505-1518
Ashina M, Buse DC, Ashina H, Pozo-Rosich P, ... Mitsikostas DD, Dodick DW
Lancet: 16 Apr 2021; 397:1505-1518 | PMID: 33773612
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Abstract

Migraine: disease characterisation, biomarkers, and precision medicine.

Ashina M, Terwindt GM, Al-Karagholi MA, de Boer I, ... Schwedt TJ, Goadsby PJ
Migraine is a disabling neurological disorder, diagnosis of which is based on clinical criteria. A shortcoming of these criteria is that they do not fully capture the heterogeneity of migraine, including the underlying genetic and neurobiological factors. This complexity has generated momentum for biomarker research to improve disease characterisation and identify novel drug targets. In this Series paper, we present the progress that has been made in the search for biomarkers of migraine within genetics, provocation modelling, biochemistry, and neuroimaging research. Additionally, we outline challenges and future directions for each biomarker modality. We also discuss the advances made in combining and integrating data from multiple biomarker modalities. These efforts contribute to developing precision medicine that can be applied to future patients with migraine.

Copyright © 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 16 Apr 2021; 397:1496-1504
Ashina M, Terwindt GM, Al-Karagholi MA, de Boer I, ... Schwedt TJ, Goadsby PJ
Lancet: 16 Apr 2021; 397:1496-1504 | PMID: 33773610
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Abstract

Effect of infusion set replacement intervals on catheter-related bloodstream infections (RSVP): a randomised, controlled, equivalence (central venous access device)-non-inferiority (peripheral arterial catheter) trial.

Rickard CM, Marsh NM, Larsen EN, McGrail MR, ... Regli A, Playford EG
Background
The optimal duration of infusion set use to prevent life-threatening catheter-related bloodstream infection (CRBSI) is unclear. We aimed to compare the effectiveness and costs of 7-day (intervention) versus 4-day (control) infusion set replacement to prevent CRBSI in patients with central venous access devices (tunnelled cuffed, non-tunnelled, peripherally inserted, and totally implanted) and peripheral arterial catheters.
Methods
We did a randomised, controlled, assessor-masked trial at ten Australian hospitals. Our hypothesis was CRBSI equivalence for central venous access devices and non-inferiority for peripheral arterial catheters (both 2% margin). Adults and children with expected greater than 24 h central venous access device-peripheral arterial catheter use were randomly assigned (1:1; stratified by hospital, catheter type, and intensive care unit or ward) by a centralised, web-based service (concealed before allocation) to infusion set replacement every 7 days, or 4 days. This included crystalloids, non-lipid parenteral nutrition, and medication infusions. Patients and clinicians were not masked, but the primary outcome (CRBSI) was adjudicated by masked infectious diseases physicians. The analysis was modified intention to treat (mITT). This study is registered with the Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry ACTRN12610000505000 and is complete.
Findings
Between May 30, 2011, and Dec, 9, 2016, from 6007 patients assessed, we assigned 2944 patients to 7-day (n=1463) or 4-day (n=1481) infusion set replacement, with 2941 in the mITT analysis. For central venous access devices, 20 (1·78%) of 1124 patients (7-day group) and 16 (1·46%) of 1097 patients (4-day group) had CRBSI (absolute risk difference [ARD] 0·32%, 95% CI -0·73 to 1·37). For peripheral arterial catheters, one (0·28%) of 357 patients in the 7-day group and none of 363 patients in the 4-day group had CRBSI (ARD 0·28%, -0·27% to 0·83%). There were no treatment-related adverse events.
Interpretation
Infusion set use can be safely extended to 7 days with resultant cost and workload reductions.
Funding
Australian National Health and Medical Research Council.

Copyright © 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 16 Apr 2021; 397:1447-1458
Rickard CM, Marsh NM, Larsen EN, McGrail MR, ... Regli A, Playford EG
Lancet: 16 Apr 2021; 397:1447-1458 | PMID: 33865494
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Abstract

Guided versus standard antiplatelet therapy in patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Galli M, Benenati S, Capodanno D, Franchi F, ... Porto I, Angiolillo DJ
Background
Whether guided selection of antiplatelet therapy in patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) is effective in improving outcomes compared with standard antiplatelet therapy remains controversial. We assessed the safety and efficacy of guided versus standard selection of antiplatelet therapy in patients undergoing PCI.
Methods
For this systematic review and meta-analysis, from Aug 20 to Oct 25, 2020, we searched MEDLINE (via PubMed), Cochrane, Embase, and Web of Science databases for randomised controlled trials and observational studies published in any language that compared guided antiplatelet therapy, by means of platelet function testing or genetic testing, versus standard antiplatelet therapy in patients undergoing PCI. Two reviewers independently assessed study eligibility, extracted the data, and assessed risk of bias. Risk ratios (RRs) and 95% CIs were used with random-effects or fixed-effect models according to the estimated heterogeneity among studies assessed by the I2 index. Coprimary endpoints were trial-defined primary major adverse cardiovascular events and any bleeding. Key secondary endpoints were all-cause death, cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, stroke, definite or probable stent thrombosis, and major and minor bleeding. This study is registered with PROSPERO (CRD42021215901).
Findings
3656 potentially relevant articles were screened. Our analysis included 11 randomised controlled trials and three observational studies with data for 20 743 patients. Compared with standard therapy, guided selection of antiplatelet therapy was associated with a reduction in major adverse cardiovascular events (RR 0·78, 95% CI 0·63-0·95, p=0·015) and reduced bleeding, although not statistically significant (RR 0·88, 0·77-1·01, p=0·069). Cardiovascular death (RR 0·77, 95% CI 0·59-1·00, p=0·049), myocardial infarction (RR 0·76, 0·60-0·96, p=0·021), stent thrombosis (RR 0·64, 0·46-0·89, p=0·011), stroke (RR 0·66, 0·48-0·91, p=0·010), and minor bleeding (RR 0·78, 0·67-0·92, p=0·0030) were reduced with guided therapy compared with standard therapy. Risks of all-cause death and major bleeding did not differ between guided and standard approaches. Outcomes varied according to the strategy used, with an escalation approach associated with a significant reduction in ischaemic events without any trade-off in safety, and a de-escalation approach associated with a significant reduction in bleeding, without any trade-off in efficacy.
Interpretation
Guided selection of antiplatelet therapy improved both composite and individual efficacy outcomes with a favourable safety profile, driven by a reduction in minor bleeding, supporting the use of platelet function or genetic testing to optimise the choice of agent in patients undergoing PCI.
Funding
None.

Copyright © 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 16 Apr 2021; 397:1470-1483
Galli M, Benenati S, Capodanno D, Franchi F, ... Porto I, Angiolillo DJ
Lancet: 16 Apr 2021; 397:1470-1483 | PMID: 33865495
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Abstract

The SANAD II study of the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of valproate versus levetiracetam for newly diagnosed generalised and unclassifiable epilepsy: an open-label, non-inferiority, multicentre, phase 4, randomised controlled trial.

Marson A, Burnside G, Appleton R, Smith D, ... Smith PE, SANAD II collaborators
Background
Valproate is a first-line treatment for patients with newly diagnosed idiopathic generalised or difficult to classify epilepsy, but not for women of child-bearing potential because of teratogenicity. Levetiracetam is increasingly prescribed for these patient populations despite scarcity of evidence of clinical effectiveness or cost-effectiveness. We aimed to compare the long-term clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of levetiracetam compared with valproate in participants with newly diagnosed generalised or unclassifiable epilepsy.
Methods
We did an open-label, randomised controlled trial to compare levetiracetam with valproate as first-line treatment for patients with generalised or unclassified epilepsy. Adult and paediatric neurology services (69 centres overall) across the UK recruited participants aged 5 years or older (with no upper age limit) with two or more unprovoked generalised or unclassifiable seizures. Participants were randomly allocated (1:1) to receive either levetiracetam or valproate, using a minimisation programme with a random element utilising factors. Participants and investigators were aware of treatment allocation. For participants aged 12 years or older, the initial advised maintenance doses were 500 mg twice per day for levetiracetam and valproate, and for children aged 5-12 years, the initial daily maintenance doses advised were 25 mg/kg for valproate and 40 mg/kg for levetiracetam. All drugs were administered orally. SANAD II was designed to assess the non-inferiority of levetiracetam compared with valproate for the primary outcome time to 12-month remission. The non-inferiority limit was a hazard ratio (HR) of 1·314, which equates to an absolute difference of 10%. A HR greater than 1 indicated that an event was more likely on valproate. All participants were included in the intention-to-treat (ITT) analysis. Per-protocol (PP) analyses excluded participants with major protocol deviations and those who were subsequently diagnosed as not having epilepsy. Safety analyses included all participants who received one dose of any study drug. This trial is registered with the ISRCTN registry, 30294119 (EudraCt number: 2012-001884-64).
Findings
520 participants were recruited between April 30, 2013, and Aug 2, 2016, and followed up for a further 2 years. 260 participants were randomly allocated to receive levetiracetam and 260 participants to receive valproate. The ITT analysis included all participants and the PP analysis included 255 participants randomly allocated to valproate and 254 randomly allocated to levetiracetam. Median age of participants was 13·9 years (range 5·0-94·4), 65% were male and 35% were female, 397 participants had generalised epilepsy, and 123 unclassified epilepsy. Levetiracetam did not meet the criteria for non-inferiority in the ITT analysis of time to 12-month remission (HR 1·19 [95% CI 0·96-1·47]); non-inferiority margin 1·314. The PP analysis showed that the 12-month remission was superior with valproate than with levetiracetam. There were two deaths, one in each group, that were unrelated to trial treatments. Adverse reactions were reported by 96 (37%) participants randomly assigned to valproate and 107 (42%) participants randomly assigned to levetiracetam. Levetiracetam was dominated by valproate in the cost-utility analysis, with a negative incremental net health benefit of -0·040 (95% central range -0·175 to 0·037) and a probability of 0·17 of being cost-effectiveness at a threshold of £20 000 per quality-adjusted life-year. Cost-effectiveness was based on differences between treatment groups in costs and quality-adjusted life-years.
Interpretation
Compared with valproate, levetiracetam was found to be neither clinically effective nor cost-effective. For girls and women of child-bearing potential, these results inform discussions about benefit and harm of avoiding valproate.
Funding
National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment Programme.

Copyright © 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 09 Apr 2021; 397:1375-1386
Marson A, Burnside G, Appleton R, Smith D, ... Smith PE, SANAD II collaborators
Lancet: 09 Apr 2021; 397:1375-1386 | PMID: 33838758
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Abstract

The SANAD II study of the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of levetiracetam, zonisamide, or lamotrigine for newly diagnosed focal epilepsy: an open-label, non-inferiority, multicentre, phase 4, randomised controlled trial.

Marson A, Burnside G, Appleton R, Smith D, ... Smith PE, SANAD II collaborators
Background
Levetiracetam and zonisamide are licensed as monotherapy for patients with focal epilepsy, but there is uncertainty as to whether they should be recommended as first-line treatments because of insufficient evidence of clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness. We aimed to assess the long-term clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of levetiracetam and zonisamide compared with lamotrigine in people with newly diagnosed focal epilepsy.
Methods
This randomised, open-label, controlled trial compared levetiracetam and zonisamide with lamotrigine as first-line treatment for patients with newly diagnosed focal epilepsy. Adult and paediatric neurology services across the UK recruited participants aged 5 years or older (with no upper age limit) with two or more unprovoked focal seizures. Participants were randomly allocated (1:1:1) using a minimisation programme with a random element utilising factor to receive lamotrigine, levetiracetam, or zonisamide. Participants and investigators were not masked and were aware of treatment allocation. SANAD II was designed to assess non-inferiority of both levetiracetam and zonisamide to lamotrigine for the primary outcome of time to 12-month remission. Anti-seizure medications were taken orally and for participants aged 12 years or older the initial advised maintenance doses were lamotrigine 50 mg (morning) and 100 mg (evening), levetiracetam 500 mg twice per day, and zonisamide 100 mg twice per day. For children aged between 5 and 12 years the initial daily maintenance doses advised were lamotrigine 1·5 mg/kg twice per day, levetiracetam 20 mg/kg twice per day, and zonisamide 2·5 mg/kg twice per day. All participants were included in the intention-to-treat (ITT) analysis. The per-protocol (PP) analysis excluded participants with major protocol deviations and those who were subsequently diagnosed as not having epilepsy. Safety analysis included all participants who received one dose of any study drug. The non-inferiority limit was a hazard ratio (HR) of 1·329, which equates to an absolute difference of 10%. A HR greater than 1 indicated that an event was more likely on lamotrigine. The trial is registered with the ISRCTN registry, 30294119 (EudraCt number: 2012-001884-64).
Findings
990 participants were recruited between May 2, 2013, and June 20, 2017, and followed up for a further 2 years. Patients were randomly assigned to receive lamotrigine (n=330), levetiracetam (n=332), or zonisamide (n=328). The ITT analysis included all participants and the PP analysis included 324 participants randomly assigned to lamotrigine, 320 participants randomly assigned to levetiracetam, and 315 participants randomly assigned to zonisamide. Levetiracetam did not meet the criteria for non-inferiority in the ITT analysis of time to 12-month remission versus lamotrigine (HR 1·18; 97·5% CI 0·95-1·47) but zonisamide did meet the criteria for non-inferiority in the ITT analysis versus lamotrigine (1·03; 0·83-1·28). The PP analysis showed that 12-month remission was superior with lamotrigine than both levetiracetam (HR 1·32 [97·5% CI 1·05 to 1·66]) and zonisamide (HR 1·37 [1·08-1·73]). There were 37 deaths during the trial. Adverse reactions were reported by 108 (33%) participants who started lamotrigine, 144 (44%) participants who started levetiracetam, and 146 (45%) participants who started zonisamide. Lamotrigine was superior in the cost-utility analysis, with a higher net health benefit of 1·403 QALYs (97·5% central range 1·319-1·458) compared with 1·222 (1·110-1·283) for levetiracetam and 1·232 (1·112, 1·307) for zonisamide at a cost-effectiveness threshold of £20 000 per QALY. Cost-effectiveness was based on differences between treatment groups in costs and QALYs.
Interpretation
These findings do not support the use of levetiracetam or zonisamide as first-line treatments for patients with focal epilepsy. Lamotrigine should remain a first-line treatment for patients with focal epilepsy and should be the standard treatment in future trials.
Funding
National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

Copyright © 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 09 Apr 2021; 397:1363-1374
Marson A, Burnside G, Appleton R, Smith D, ... Smith PE, SANAD II collaborators
Lancet: 09 Apr 2021; 397:1363-1374 | PMID: 33838757
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Abstract

Parkinson\'s disease.

Bloem BR, Okun MS, Klein C
Parkinson\'s disease is a recognisable clinical syndrome with a range of causes and clinical presentations. Parkinson\'s disease represents a fast-growing neurodegenerative condition; the rising prevalence worldwide resembles the many characteristics typically observed during a pandemic, except for an infectious cause. In most populations, 3-5% of Parkinson\'s disease is explained by genetic causes linked to known Parkinson\'s disease genes, thus representing monogenic Parkinson\'s disease, whereas 90 genetic risk variants collectively explain 16-36% of the heritable risk of non-monogenic Parkinson\'s disease. Additional causal associations include having a relative with Parkinson\'s disease or tremor, constipation, and being a non-smoker, each at least doubling the risk of Parkinson\'s disease. The diagnosis is clinically based; ancillary testing is reserved for people with an atypical presentation. Current criteria define Parkinson\'s disease as the presence of bradykinesia combined with either rest tremor, rigidity, or both. However, the clinical presentation is multifaceted and includes many non-motor symptoms. Prognostic counselling is guided by awareness of disease subtypes. Clinically manifest Parkinson\'s disease is preceded by a potentially long prodromal period. Presently, establishment of prodromal symptoms has no clinical implications other than symptom suppression, although recognition of prodromal parkinsonism will probably have consequences when disease-modifying treatments become available. Treatment goals vary from person to person, emphasising the need for personalised management. There is no reason to postpone symptomatic treatment in people developing disability due to Parkinson\'s disease. Levodopa is the most common medication used as first-line therapy. Optimal management should start at diagnosis and requires a multidisciplinary team approach, including a growing repertoire of non-pharmacological interventions. At present, no therapy can slow down or arrest the progression of Parkinson\'s disease, but informed by new insights in genetic causes and mechanisms of neuronal death, several promising strategies are being tested for disease-modifying potential. With the perspective of people with Parkinson\'s disease as a so-called red thread throughout this Seminar, we will show how personalised management of Parkinson\'s disease can be optimised.

Copyright © 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 08 Apr 2021; epub ahead of print
Bloem BR, Okun MS, Klein C
Lancet: 08 Apr 2021; epub ahead of print | PMID: 33848468
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Abstract

The escalating tuberculosis crisis in central and South American prisons.

Walter KS, Martinez L, Arakaki-Sanchez D, Sequera VG, ... Croda J, Andrews JR
In the past decade, tuberculosis incidence has declined in much of the world, but has risen in central and South America. It is not yet clear what is driving this reversal of progress in tuberculosis control. Since 2000, the incarcerated population in central and South America has grown by 206%, the greatest increase in the world. Over the same period, notified tuberculosis cases among the incarcerated population (hereinafter termed persons deprived of their liberty [PDL], following the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights) have risen by 269%. In both central and South America, the rise of disease among PDL more than offsets tuberculosis control gains in the general population. Tuberculosis is increasingly concentrated among PDL; currently, 11% of all notified tuberculosis cases in central and South America occur among PDL who comprise less than 1% of the population. The extraordinarily high risk of acquiring tuberculosis within prisons creates a health and human rights crisis for PDL that also undermines wider tuberculosis control efforts. Controlling tuberculosis in this region will require countries to take urgent measures to prioritise the health of PDL.

Copyright © 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 07 Apr 2021; epub ahead of print
Walter KS, Martinez L, Arakaki-Sanchez D, Sequera VG, ... Croda J, Andrews JR
Lancet: 07 Apr 2021; epub ahead of print | PMID: 33838724
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Abstract

US-China health exchange and collaboration following COVID-19.

Li L, Wang K, Chen Z, Koplan JP
Strong US-China collaboration on health and medicine is a crucial element of the global effort against COVID-19. We review the history of health collaboration and exchanges between the public and private sectors in the USA and China, including the long-lasting collaboration between governmental public health agencies of the two countries. Academic and scientific exchanges should be reinvigorated and the increasing valuable role of non-profit foundations acknowledged. The shared interests of the two countries and the magnitude of the pandemic necessitate both countries to collaborate and cooperate. We provide recommendations to the two governments and the global health community to control the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and prepare for future threats. TRANSLATION: For the Chinese translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Copyright © 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 07 Apr 2021; epub ahead of print
Li L, Wang K, Chen Z, Koplan JP
Lancet: 07 Apr 2021; epub ahead of print | PMID: 33838723
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Abstract

Eliminating postnatal HIV transmission in high incidence areas: need for complementary biomedical interventions.

Van de Perre P, Goga A, Ngandu N, Nagot N, ... Dabis F, Gray G
The rate of mother-to-child transmission (MTCT) of HIV from breastfeeding is increasing relative to other causes of MTCT. Early effective preconception and antenatal antiretroviral therapy (ART) reduces intrauterine and intrapartum MTCT, whereas maternal post-partum HIV acquisition, untreated maternal HIV, and suboptimal postnatal maternal ART adherence increase the risk of MTCT through breastfeeding. Although the absolute number of cases of MTCT acquired through breastfeeding is decreasing, the rate of decrease is less than the decrease in intrauterine and intrapartum MTCT. Unless current strategies are universally applied, they might not be sufficient to eliminate MTCT due to breastfeeding. Urgent action is needed to evaluate and implement additional preventive biomedical strategies in high HIV prevalence and incidence settings to eliminate MTCT from breastfeeding. Preventive strategies include: pre-exposure prophylaxis in breastfeeding women who have an increased risk of acquiring HIV; postnatal reinforcement strategies, such as maternal retesting for HIV, maternal care reinforcement, and prophylaxis in infants exposed to HIV via breastmilk; and active (vaccine) or passive immunoprophylaxis with long-acting broadly neutralising antibodies.

Copyright © 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 02 Apr 2021; 397:1316-1324
Van de Perre P, Goga A, Ngandu N, Nagot N, ... Dabis F, Gray G
Lancet: 02 Apr 2021; 397:1316-1324 | PMID: 33812490
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Impact:
Abstract

Psoriasis.

Griffiths CEM, Armstrong AW, Gudjonsson JE, Barker JNWN
Psoriasis is a common, chronic papulosquamous skin disease occurring worldwide, presenting at any age, and leading to a substantial burden for individuals and society. It is associated with several important medical conditions, including depression, psoriatic arthritis, and cardiometabolic syndrome. Its most common form, chronic plaque or psoriasis vulgaris, is a consequence of genetic susceptibility, particularly in the presence of the HLA-C*06:02 risk allele, and of environmental triggers such as streptococcal infection, stress, smoking, obesity, and alcohol consumption. There are several phenotypes and research has separated pustular from chronic plaque forms. Immunological and genetic studies have identified IL-17 and IL-23 as key drivers of psoriasis pathogenesis. Immune targeting of these cytokines and of TNFα by biological therapies has revolutionised the care of severe chronic plaque disease. Psoriasis cannot currently be cured, but management should aim to minimise physical and psychological harm by treating patients early in the disease process, identifying and preventing associated multimorbidity, instilling lifestyle modifications, and employing a personalised approach to treatment.

Copyright © 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 02 Apr 2021; 397:1301-1315
Griffiths CEM, Armstrong AW, Gudjonsson JE, Barker JNWN
Lancet: 02 Apr 2021; 397:1301-1315 | PMID: 33812489
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Impact:
Abstract

Comparison of two delayed strategies for renal replacement therapy initiation for severe acute kidney injury (AKIKI 2): a multicentre, open-label, randomised, controlled trial.

Gaudry S, Hajage D, Martin-Lefevre L, Lebbah S, ... Quenot JP, Dreyfuss D
Background
Delaying renal replacement therapy (RRT) for some time in critically ill patients with severe acute kidney injury and no severe complication is safe and allows optimisation of the use of medical devices. Major uncertainty remains concerning the duration for which RRT can be postponed without risk. Our aim was to test the hypothesis that a more-delayed initiation strategy would result in more RRT-free days, compared with a delayed strategy.
Methods
This was an unmasked, multicentre, prospective, open-label, randomised, controlled trial done in 39 intensive care units in France. We monitored critically ill patients with severe acute kidney injury (defined as Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes stage 3) until they had oliguria for more than 72 h or a blood urea nitrogen concentration higher than 112 mg/dL. Patients were then randomly assigned (1:1) to either a strategy (delayed strategy) in which RRT was started just after randomisation or to a more-delayed strategy. With the more-delayed strategy, RRT initiation was postponed until mandatory indication (noticeable hyperkalaemia or metabolic acidosis or pulmonary oedema) or until blood urea nitrogen concentration reached 140 mg/dL. The primary outcome was the number of days alive and free of RRT between randomisation and day 28 and was done in the intention-to-treat population. The study is registered with ClinicalTrial.gov, NCT03396757 and is completed.
Findings
Between May 7, 2018, and Oct 11, 2019, of 5336 patients assessed, 278 patients underwent randomisation; 137 were assigned to the delayed strategy and 141 to the more-delayed strategy. The number of complications potentially related to acute kidney injury or to RRT were similar between groups. The median number of RRT-free days was 12 days (IQR 0-25) in the delayed strategy and 10 days (IQR 0-24) in the more-delayed strategy (p=0·93). In a multivariable analysis, the hazard ratio for death at 60 days was 1·65 (95% CI 1·09-2·50, p=0·018) with the more-delayed versus the delayed strategy. The number of complications potentially related to acute kidney injury or renal replacement therapy did not differ between groups.
Interpretation
In severe acute kidney injury patients with oliguria for more than 72 h or blood urea nitrogen concentration higher than 112 mg/dL and no severe complication that would mandate immediate RRT, longer postponing of RRT initiation did not confer additional benefit and was associated with potential harm.
Funding
Programme Hospitalier de Recherche Clinique.

Copyright © 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 02 Apr 2021; 397:1293-1300
Gaudry S, Hajage D, Martin-Lefevre L, Lebbah S, ... Quenot JP, Dreyfuss D
Lancet: 02 Apr 2021; 397:1293-1300 | PMID: 33812488
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Abstract

Efficacy and safety of dolutegravir with emtricitabine and tenofovir alafenamide fumarate or tenofovir disoproxil fumarate, and efavirenz, emtricitabine, and tenofovir disoproxil fumarate HIV antiretroviral therapy regimens started in pregnancy (IMPAACT 2010/VESTED): a multicentre, open-label, randomised, controlled, phase 3 trial.

Lockman S, Brummel SS, Ziemba L, Stranix-Chibanda L, ... Currier J, IMPAACT 2010/VESTED Study Team and Investigators
Background
Antiretroviral therapy (ART) during pregnancy is important for both maternal health and prevention of perinatal HIV-1 transmission; however adequate data on the safety and efficacy of different ART regimens that are likely to be used by pregnant women are scarce. In this trial we compared the safety and efficacy of three antiretroviral regimens started in pregnancy: dolutegravir, emtricitabine, and tenofovir alafenamide fumarate; dolutegravir, emtricitabine, and tenofovir disoproxil fumarate; and efavirenz, emtricitabine, and tenofovir disoproxil fumarate.
Methods
This multicentre, open-label, randomised controlled, phase 3 trial was done at 22 clinical research sites in nine countries (Botswana, Brazil, India, South Africa, Tanzania, Thailand, Uganda, the USA, and Zimbabwe). Pregnant women (aged ≥18 years) with confirmed HIV-1 infection and at 14-28 weeks\' gestation were eligible. Women who had previously taken antiretrovirals in the past were excluded (up to 14 days of ART during the current pregnancy was permitted), as were women known to be pregnant with multiple fetuses, or those with known fetal anomaly or a history of psychiatric illness. Participants were randomly assigned (1:1:1) using a central computerised randomisation system. Randomisation was done using permuted blocks (size six) stratified by gestational age (14-18, 19-23, and 24-28 weeks\' gestation) and country. Participants were randomly assigned to receive either once-daily oral dolutegravir 50 mg, and once-daily oral fixed-dose combination emtricitabine 200 mg and tenofovir alafenamide fumarate 25 mg; once-daily oral dolutegravir 50 mg, and once-daily oral fixed-dose combination emtricitabine 200 mg and tenofovir disoproxil fumarate 300 mg; or once-daily oral fixed-dose combination of efavirenz 600 mg, emtricitabine 200 mg, and tenofovir disoproxil fumarate 300 mg. The primary efficacy outcome was the proportion of participants with viral suppression, defined as an HIV-1 RNA concentration of less than 200 copies per mL, at or within 14 days of delivery, assessed in all participants with an HIV-1 RNA result available from the delivery visit, with a prespecified non-inferiority margin of -10% in the combined dolutegravir-containing groups versus the efavirenz-containing group (superiority was tested in a pre-planned secondary analysis). Primary safety outcomes, compared pairwise among treatment groups, were the occurrence of a composite adverse pregnancy outcome (ie, either preterm delivery, the infant being born small for gestational age, stillbirth, or spontaneous abortion) in all participants with a pregnancy outcome, and the occurrence of grade 3 or higher maternal and infant adverse events in all randomised participants. This trial was registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03048422.
Findings
Between Jan 19, 2018, and Feb 8, 2019, we enrolled and randomly assigned 643 pregnant women: 217 to the dolutegravir, emtricitabine, and tenofovir alafenamide fumarate group, 215 to the dolutegravir, emtricitabine, and tenofovir disoproxil fumarate group, and 211 to the efavirenz, emtricitabine, and tenofovir disoproxil fumarate group. At enrolment, median gestational age was 21·9 weeks (IQR 18·3-25·3), the median HIV-1 RNA concentration among participants was 902·5 copies per mL (152·0-5182·5; 181 [28%] of 643 participants had HIV-1 RNA concentrations of <200 copies per mL), and the median CD4 count was 466 cells per μL (308-624). HIV-1 RNA concentrations at delivery were available for 605 (94%) participants. Of these, 395 (98%) of 405 participants in the combined dolutegravir-containing groups had viral suppression at delivery compared with 182 (91%) of 200 participants in the efavirenz, emtricitabine, and tenofovir disoproxil fumarate group (estimated difference 6·5% [95% CI 2·0 to 10·7], p=0·0052; excluding the non-inferiority margin of -10%). Significantly fewer participants in the dolutegravir, emtricitabine, and tenofovir alafenamide fumarate group (52 [24%] of 216) had a composite adverse pregnancy outcome than those in the dolutegravir, emtricitabine, and tenofovir disoproxil fumarate group (70 [33%] of 213; estimated difference -8·8% [95% CI -17·3 to -0·3], p=0·043) or the efavirenz, emtricitabine, and tenofovir disoproxil fumarate group (69 [33%] of 211; -8·6% [-17·1 to -0·1], p=0·047). The proportion of participants or infants with grade 3 or higher adverse events did not differ among the three groups. The proportion of participants who had a preterm delivery was significantly lower in the dolutegravir, emtricitabine, and tenofovir alafenamide fumarate group (12 [6%] of 208) than in the efavirenz, emtricitabine, and tenofovir disoproxil fumarate group (25 [12%] of 207; -6·3% [-11·8 to -0·9], p=0·023). Neonatal mortality was significantly higher in the efavirenz, emtricitabine, and tenofovir disoproxil fumarate group (ten [5%] of 207 infants) than in the dolutegravir, emtricitabine, and tenofovir alafenamide fumarate group (two [1%] of 208; p=0·019) or the dolutegravir, emtricitabine, and tenofovir disoproxil fumarate group (three [2%] of 202; p=0·050).
Interpretation
When started in pregnancy, dolutegravir-containing regimens had superior virological efficacy at delivery compared with the efavirenz, emtricitabine, and tenofovir disoproxil fumarate regimen. The dolutegravir, emtricitabine, and tenofovir alafenamide fumarate regimen had the lowest frequency of composite adverse pregnancy outcomes and of neonatal deaths.
Funding
National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development, and the National Institute of Mental Health.

Copyright © 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 02 Apr 2021; 397:1276-1292
Lockman S, Brummel SS, Ziemba L, Stranix-Chibanda L, ... Currier J, IMPAACT 2010/VESTED Study Team and Investigators
Lancet: 02 Apr 2021; 397:1276-1292 | PMID: 33812487
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Abstract

Breast cancer.

Loibl S, Poortmans P, Morrow M, Denkert C, Curigliano G
Breast cancer is still the most common cancer worldwide. But the way breast cancer is viewed has changed drastically since its molecular hallmarks were extensively characterised, now including immunohistochemical markers (eg, ER, PR, HER2 [ERBB2], and proliferation marker protein Ki-67 [MKI67]), genomic markers (eg, BRCA1, BRCA2, and PIK3CA), and immunomarkers (eg, tumour-infiltrating lymphocytes and PD-L1). New biomarker combinations are the basis for increasingly complex diagnostic algorithms. Neoadjuvant combination therapy, often including targeted agents, is a standard of care (especially in HER2-positive and triple-negative breast cancer), and the basis for de-escalation of surgery in the breast and axilla and for risk-adapted post-neoadjuvant strategies. Radiotherapy remains an important cornerstone of breast cancer therapy, but de-escalation schemes have become the standard of care. ER-positive tumours are treated with 5-10 years of endocrine therapy and chemotherapy, based on an individual risk assessment. For metastatic breast cancer, standard therapy options include targeted approaches such as CDK4 and CDK6 inhibitors, PI3K inhibitors, PARP inhibitors, and anti-PD-L1 immunotherapy, depending on tumour type and molecular profile. This range of treatment options reflects the complexity of breast cancer therapy today.

Copyright © 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 31 Mar 2021; epub ahead of print
Loibl S, Poortmans P, Morrow M, Denkert C, Curigliano G
Lancet: 31 Mar 2021; epub ahead of print | PMID: 33812473
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Abstract

Gout.

Dalbeth N, Gosling AL, Gaffo A, Abhishek A
Gout is a common and treatable disease caused by the deposition of monosodium urate crystals in articular and non-articular structures. Increased concentration of serum urate (hyperuricaemia) is the most important risk factor for the development of gout. Serum urate is regulated by urate transporters in the kidney and gut, particularly GLUT9 (SLC2A9), URAT1 (SLC22A12), and ABCG2. Activation of the NLRP3 inflammasome by monosodium urate crystals with release of IL-1β plays a major role in the initiation of the gout flare; aggregated neutrophil extracellular traps are important in the resolution phase. Although presenting as an intermittent flaring condition, gout is a chronic disease. Long-term urate lowering therapy (eg, allopurinol) leads to the dissolution of monosodium urate crystals, ultimately resulting in the prevention of gout flares and tophi and in improved quality of life. Strategies such as nurse-led care are effective in delivering high-quality gout care and lead to major improvements in patient outcomes.

Copyright © 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 29 Mar 2021; epub ahead of print
Dalbeth N, Gosling AL, Gaffo A, Abhishek A
Lancet: 29 Mar 2021; epub ahead of print | PMID: 33798500
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Abstract

Discontinuing β-lactam treatment after 3 days for patients with community-acquired pneumonia in non-critical care wards (PTC): a double-blind, randomised, placebo-controlled, non-inferiority trial.

Dinh A, Ropers J, Duran C, Davido B, ... Crémieux AC, Pneumonia Short Treatment (PTC) Study Group
Background
Shortening the duration of antibiotic therapy for patients admitted to hospital with community-acquired pneumonia should help reduce antibiotic consumption and thus bacterial resistance, adverse events, and related costs. We aimed to assess the need for an additional 5-day course of β-lactam therapy among patients with community-acquired pneumonia who were stable after 3 days of treatment.
Methods
We did this double-blind, randomised, placebo-controlled, non-inferiority trial (the Pneumonia Short Treatment [PTC]) in 16 centres in France. Adult patients (aged ≥18 years) admitted to hospital with moderately severe community-acquired pneumonia (defined as patients admitted to a non-critical care unit) and who met prespecified clinical stability criteria after 3 days of treatment with β-lactam therapy were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive β-lactam therapy (oral amoxicillin 1 g plus clavulanate 125 mg three times a day) or matched placebo for 5 extra days. Randomisation was done using a web-based system with permuted blocks with random sizes and stratified by randomisation site and Pneumonia Severity Index score. Participants, clinicians, and study staff were masked to treatment allocation. The primary outcome was cure 15 days after first antibiotic intake, defined by apyrexia (temperature ≤37·8°C), resolution or improvement of respiratory symptoms, and no additional antibiotic treatment for any cause. A non-inferiority margin of 10 percentage points was chosen. The primary outcome was assessed in all patients who were randomly assigned and received any treatment (intention-to-treat [ITT] population) and in all patients who received their assigned treatment (per-protocol population). Safety was assessed in the ITT population. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT01963442, and is now complete.
Findings
Between Dec 19, 2013, and Feb 1, 2018, 706 patients were assessed for eligibility, and after 3 days of β-lactam treatment, 310 eligible patients were randomly assigned to receive either placebo (n=157) or β-lactam treatment (n=153). Seven patients withdrew consent before taking any study drug, five in the placebo group and two in the β-lactam group. In the ITT population, median age was 73·0 years (IQR 57·0-84·0) and 123 (41%) of 303 participants were female. In the ITT analysis, cure at day 15 occurred in 117 (77%) of 152 participants in the placebo group and 102 (68%) of 151 participants in the β-lactam group (between-group difference of 9·42%, 95% CI -0·38 to 20·04), indicating non-inferiority. In the per-protocol analysis, 113 (78%) of 145 participants in the placebo treatment group and 100 (68%) of 146 participants in the β-lactam treatment group were cured at day 15 (difference of 9·44% [95% CI -0·15 to 20·34]), indicating non-inferiority. Incidence of adverse events was similar between the treatment groups (22 [14%] of 152 in the placebo group and 29 [19%] of 151 in the β-lactam group). The most common adverse events were digestive disorders, reported in 17 (11%) of 152 patients in the placebo group and 28 (19%) of 151 patients in the β-lactam group. By day 30, three (2%) patients had died in the placebo group (one due to bacteraemia due to Staphylococcus aureus, one due to cardiogenic shock after acute pulmonary oedema, and one due to heart failure associated with acute renal failure) and two (1%) in the β-lactam group (due to pneumonia recurrence and possible acute pulmonary oedema).
Interpretation
Among patients admitted to hospital with community-acquired pneumonia who met clinical stability criteria, discontinuing β-lactam treatment after 3 days was non-inferior to 8 days of treatment. These findings could allow substantial reduction of antibiotic consumption.
Funding
French Ministry of Health.

Copyright © 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 26 Mar 2021; 397:1195-1203
Dinh A, Ropers J, Duran C, Davido B, ... Crémieux AC, Pneumonia Short Treatment (PTC) Study Group
Lancet: 26 Mar 2021; 397:1195-1203 | PMID: 33773631
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Impact:
Abstract

Evaluating Progestogens for Preventing Preterm birth International Collaborative (EPPPIC): meta-analysis of individual participant data from randomised controlled trials.

EPPPIC Group
Background
Preterm birth is a global health priority. Using a progestogen during high-risk pregnancy could reduce preterm birth and adverse neonatal outcomes.
Methods
We did a systematic review of randomised trials comparing vaginal progesterone, intramuscular 17-hydroxyprogesterone caproate (17-OHPC), or oral progesterone with control, or with each other, in asymptomatic women at risk of preterm birth. We identified published and unpublished trials that completed primary data collection before July 30, 2016, (12 months before data collection began), by searching MEDLINE, Embase, CINAHL, the Maternity and Infant Care Database, and relevant trial registers between inception and July 30, 2019. Trials of progestogen to prevent early miscarriage or immediately-threatened preterm birth were excluded. Individual participant data were requested from investigators of eligible trials. Outcomes included preterm birth, early preterm birth, and mid-trimester birth. Adverse neonatal sequelae associated with early births were assessed using a composite of serious neonatal complications, and individually. Adverse maternal outcomes were investigated as a composite and individually. Individual participant data were checked and risk of bias assessed independently by two researchers. Primary meta-analyses used one-stage generalised linear mixed models that incorporated random effects to allow for heterogeneity across trials. This meta-analysis is registered with PROSPERO, CRD42017068299.
Findings
Initial searches identified 47 eligible trials. Individual participant data were available for 30 of these trials. An additional trial was later included in a targeted update. Data were therefore available from a total of 31 trials (11 644 women and 16185 offspring). Trials in singleton pregnancies included mostly women with previous spontaneous preterm birth or short cervix. Preterm birth before 34 weeks was reduced in such women who received vaginal progesterone (nine trials, 3769 women; relative risk [RR] 0·78, 95% CI 0·68-0·90), 17-OHPC (five trials, 3053 women; 0·83, 0·68-1·01), and oral progesterone (two trials, 181 women; 0·60, 0·40-0·90). Results for other birth and neonatal outcomes were consistently favourable, but less certain. A possible increase in maternal complications was suggested, but this was uncertain. We identified no consistent evidence of treatment interaction with any participant characteristics examined, although analyses within subpopulations questioned efficacy in women who did not have a short cervix. Trials in multifetal pregnancies mostly included women without additional risk factors. For twins, vaginal progesterone did not reduce preterm birth before 34 weeks (eight trials, 2046 women: RR 1·01, 95% CI 0·84-1·20) nor did 17-OHPC for twins or triplets (eight trials, 2253 women: 1·04, 0·92-1·18). Preterm premature rupture of membranes was increased with 17-OHPC exposure in multifetal gestations (rupture <34 weeks RR 1·59, 95% CI 1·15-2·22), but we found no consistent evidence of benefit or harm for other outcomes with either vaginal progesterone or 17-OHPC.
Interpretation
Vaginal progesterone and 17-OHPC both reduced birth before 34 weeks\' gestation in high-risk singleton pregnancies. Given increased underlying risk, absolute risk reduction is greater for women with a short cervix, hence treatment might be most useful for these women. Evidence for oral progesterone is insufficient to support its use. Shared decision making with woman with high-risk singleton pregnancies should discuss an individual\'s risk, potential benefits, harms and practicalities of intervention. Treatment of unselected multifetal pregnancies with a progestogen is not supported by the evidence.
Funding
Patient-Centered Outcomes Research Institute.

Copyright © 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 26 Mar 2021; 397:1183-1194
EPPPIC Group
Lancet: 26 Mar 2021; 397:1183-1194 | PMID: 33773630
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Impact:
Abstract

Insurance coverage and financing landscape for HIV treatment and prevention in the USA.

Kates J, Dawson L, Horn TH, Killelea A, ... Crowley JS, Walensky RP
In 2010, the US health insurance system underwent one of its most substantial transformations with the passage of the Affordable Care Act, which increased coverage for millions of people in the USA, including those with and at risk of HIV. Even so, the system of HIV care and prevention services in the USA is a complex patchwork of payers, providers, and financing mechanisms. People with HIV are primarily covered by Medicaid, Medicare, private insurance, or a combination of these; many get care through other programmes, particularly the Ryan White HIV/AIDS Program, which serves as the nation\'s safety net for people with HIV who remain uninsured or underinsured but offers modest to no support for prevention services. While uninsurance has drastically declined over the past decade, the USA trails other high-income countries in key HIV-specific metrics, including rates of viral suppression. In this paper in the Series, we provide an overview of the coverage and financing landscape for HIV treatment and prevention in the USA, discuss how the Affordable Care Act has changed the domestic health-care system, examine the major programmes that provide coverage and services, and identify remaining challenges.

Copyright © 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 19 Mar 2021; 397:1127-1138
Kates J, Dawson L, Horn TH, Killelea A, ... Crowley JS, Walensky RP
Lancet: 19 Mar 2021; 397:1127-1138 | PMID: 33617778
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Abstract

Epidemiology of HIV in the USA: epidemic burden, inequities, contexts, and responses.

Sullivan PS, Satcher Johnson A, Pembleton ES, Stephenson R, ... Mayer KH, Beyrer C
The HIV epidemic in the USA began as a bicoastal epidemic focused in large cities but, over nearly four decades, the epidemiology of HIV has changed. Public health surveillance data can inform an understanding of the evolution of the HIV epidemic in terms of the populations and geographical areas most affected. We analysed publicly available HIV surveillance data and census data to describe: current HIV prevalence and new HIV diagnoses by region, race or ethnicity, and age; trends in HIV diagnoses over time by HIV acquisition risk and age; and the distribution of HIV prevalence by geographical area. We reviewed published literature to explore the reasons for the current distribution of HIV cases and important disparities in HIV prevalence. We identified opportunities to improve public health surveillance systems and uses of data for planning and monitoring public health responses. The current US HIV epidemic is marked by geographical concentration in the US South and profound disparities between regions and by race or ethnicity. Rural areas vary in HIV prevalence; rural areas in the South are more likely to have a high HIV prevalence than rural areas in other US Census regions. Ongoing disparities in HIV in the South are probably driven by the restricted expansion of Medicaid, health-care provider shortages, low health literacy, and HIV stigma. HIV diagnoses overall declined in 2009-18, but HIV diagnoses among individuals aged 25-34 years increased during the same period. HIV diagnoses decreased for all risk groups in 2009-18; among men who have sex with men (MSM), new diagnoses decreased overall and for White MSM, remained stable for Black MSM, and increased for Hispanic or Latino MSM. Surveillance data indicate profound and ongoing disparities in HIV cases, with disproportionate impact among people in the South, racial or ethnic minorities, and MSM.

Copyright © 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 19 Mar 2021; 397:1095-1106
Sullivan PS, Satcher Johnson A, Pembleton ES, Stephenson R, ... Mayer KH, Beyrer C
Lancet: 19 Mar 2021; 397:1095-1106 | PMID: 33617774
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Impact:
Abstract

The persistent and evolving HIV epidemic in American men who have sex with men.

Mayer KH, Nelson L, Hightow-Weidman L, Mimiaga MJ, ... Beyrer C, Sullivan PS
Men who have sex with men (MSM) in the USA were the first population to be identified with AIDS and continue to be at very high risk of HIV acquisition. We did a systematic literature search to identify the factors that explain the reasons for the ongoing epidemic in this population, using a social-ecological perspective. Common features of the HIV epidemic in American MSM include role versatility and biological, individual, and social and structural factors. The high-prevalence networks of some racial and ethnic minority men are further concentrated because of assortative mixing, adverse life experiences (including high rates of incarceration), and avoidant behaviour because of negative interactions with the health-care system. Young MSM have additional risks for HIV because their impulse control is less developed and they are less familiar with serostatus and other risk mitigation discussions. They might benefit from prevention efforts that use digital technologies, which they often use to meet partners and obtain health-related information. Older MSM remain at risk of HIV and are the largest population of US residents with chronic HIV, requiring culturally responsive programmes that address longer-term comorbidities. Transgender MSM are an understudied population, but emerging data suggest that some are at great risk of HIV and require specifically tailored information on HIV prevention. In the current era of pre-exposure prophylaxis and the undetectable equals untransmittable campaign, training of health-care providers to create culturally competent programmes for all MSM is crucial, since the use of antiretrovirals is foundational to optimising HIV care and prevention. Effective control of the HIV epidemic among all American MSM will require scaling up programmes that address their common vulnerabilities, but are sufficiently nuanced to address the specific sociocultural, structural, and behavioural issues of diverse subgroups.

Copyright © 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 19 Mar 2021; 397:1116-1126
Mayer KH, Nelson L, Hightow-Weidman L, Mimiaga MJ, ... Beyrer C, Sullivan PS
Lancet: 19 Mar 2021; 397:1116-1126 | PMID: 33617771
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Impact:
Abstract

The opioid crisis and HIV in the USA: deadly synergies.

Hodder SL, Feinberg J, Strathdee SA, Shoptaw S, ... Ortenzio L, Beyrer C
The opioid epidemic is one of the greatest public health problems that the USA faces. Opioid overdose death rates have increased steadily for more than a decade and doubled in 2013-17, as the highly potent synthetic opioid fentanyl entered the drug supply. Demographics of new HIV diagnoses among people who inject drugs are also changing, with more new HIV diagnoses occurring among White people, young people (aged 13-34 years), and people who reside outside large central metropolitan areas. Racial differences also exist in syringe sharing, which decreased among Black people and Hispanic people but remained unchanged among White people in 2005-15. Recent HIV outbreaks have occurred in rural areas of the USA, as well as among marginalised people in urban areas with robust HIV prevention and treatment services (eg, Seattle, WA). Multiple evidence-based interventions can effectively treat opioid use disorder and prevent HIV acquisition. However, considerable barriers exist precluding delivery of these solutions to many people who inject drugs. If the USA is serious about HIV prevention among this group, stigma must be eliminated, discriminatory policies must change, and comprehensive health care must be accessible to all. Finally, root causes of the opioid epidemic such as hopelessness need to be identified and addressed.

Copyright © 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 19 Mar 2021; 397:1139-1150
Hodder SL, Feinberg J, Strathdee SA, Shoptaw S, ... Ortenzio L, Beyrer C
Lancet: 19 Mar 2021; 397:1139-1150 | PMID: 33617769
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Impact:
Abstract

HIV and women in the USA: what we know and where to go from here.

Adimora AA, Ramirez C, Poteat T, Archin NM, ... Currier J, Gandhi M
New diagnoses of HIV infection have decreased among women in the USA overall, but marked racial and geographical disparities persist. The federal government has announced an initiative that aims to decrease the number of new infections in the nation by 90% within the next 10 years. With this in mind, we highlight important recent developments concerning HIV epidemiology, comorbidities, treatment, and prevention among women in the USA. We conclude that, to end the US HIV epidemic, substantially greater inclusion of US women in clinical research will be required, as will better prevention and treatment efforts, with universal access to health care and other supportive services that enable women to exercise agency in their own HIV prevention and care. Ending the epidemic will also require eliminating the race, class, and gender inequities, as well as the discrimination and structural violence, that have promoted and maintained the distribution of HIV in the USA, and that will, if unchecked, continue to fuel the epidemic in the future.

Copyright © 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 19 Mar 2021; 397:1107-1115
Adimora AA, Ramirez C, Poteat T, Archin NM, ... Currier J, Gandhi M
Lancet: 19 Mar 2021; 397:1107-1115 | PMID: 33617768
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Abstract

Mortality in STEMI patients without standard modifiable risk factors: a sex-disaggregated analysis of SWEDEHEART registry data.

Figtree GA, Vernon ST, Hadziosmanovic N, Sundström J, ... Leósdóttir M, Hagström E
Background
In cardiovascular disease, prevention strategies targeting standard modifiable cardiovascular risk factors (SMuRFs; hypertension, diabetes, hypercholesterolaemia, and smoking) are crucial; however, myocardial infarction in the absence of SMuRFs is not infrequent. The outcomes of individuals without SMuRFs are not well known.
Methods
We retrospectively analysed adult patients with first-presentation ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) using data from the Swedish myocardial infarction registry SWEDEHEART. Clinical characteristics and outcomes of adult patients (age ≥18 years) with and without SMuRFs were examined overall and by sex. Patients with a known history of coronary artery disease were excluded. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality at 30 days after STEMI presentation. Secondary outcomes included cardiovascular mortality, heart failure, and myocardial infarction at30 days. Endpoints were also examined up to discharge, and to the end of a 12-year follow-up. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to compare in-hospital mortality, and Cox-proportional hazard models and Kaplan-Meier analysis for long-term outcomes.
Findings
Between Jan 1, 2005, and May 25, 2018, 9228 (14·9%) of 62 048 patients with STEMI had no SMuRFs reaching diagnostic thresholds. Median age was similar between patients with SMuRFs and patients without SMuRFs (68 years [IQR 59-78]) vs 69 years [60-78], p<0·0001). SMuRF-less patients had a similar rate of percutaneous coronary intervention to those with at least one modifiable risk factor, but were significantly less likely to receive statins, angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors (ACEIs) or angiotensin receptor blockade (ARB), or β-blockers at discharge. By 30 days after presentation, all-cause mortality was significantly higher in SMuRF-less patients (hazard ratio 1·47 [95% CI 1·37-1·57], p<0·0001). SMuRF-less women had the highest 30-day mortality (381 [17·6%] of 2164), followed by women with SMuRFs (2032 [11·1%] of 18 220), SMuRF-less men (660 [9·3%] of 7064), and men with SMuRFs (2117 [6·1%] of 34 600). The increased risk of 30-day all-cause mortality in SMuRF-less patients remained significant after adjusting for age, sex, left ventricular ejection fraction, creatinine, and blood pressure, but was attenuated on inclusion of pharmacotherapy prescription (ACEI or ARB, β-blocker, or statin) at discharge. Additionally, SMuRF-less patients had a significantly higher rate of in-hospital all-cause mortality than patients with one or more SMuRF (883 [9·6%] vs 3411 [6·5%], p<0·0001). Myocardial infarction and heart failure at 30 days were lower in SMuRF-less patients. All-cause mortality remained increased in the SMuRF-less group for more than 8 years in men and up to the 12-year endpoint in women.
Interpretation
Individuals who present with STEMI in the absence of SMuRFs have a significantly increased risk of all-cause mortality, compared with those with at least one SMuRF, which was particularly evident in women. The increased early mortality rates are attenuated after adjustment for use of guideline-indicated treatments, highlighting the need for evidence-based pharmacotherapy during the immediate post-infarct period irrespective of perceived low risk.
Funding
Swedish Heart and Lung Foundation, National Health and Medical Research Council (Australia).

Copyright © 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 19 Mar 2021; 397:1085-1094
Figtree GA, Vernon ST, Hadziosmanovic N, Sundström J, ... Leósdóttir M, Hagström E
Lancet: 19 Mar 2021; 397:1085-1094 | PMID: 33711294
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Impact:
Abstract

Semaglutide 2·4 mg once a week in adults with overweight or obesity, and type 2 diabetes (STEP 2): a randomised, double-blind, double-dummy, placebo-controlled, phase 3 trial.

Davies M, Færch L, Jeppesen OK, Pakseresht A, ... Lingvay I, STEP 2 Study Group
Background
This trial assessed the efficacy and safety of the GLP-1 analogue once a week subcutaneous semaglutide 2·4 mg versus semaglutide 1·0 mg (the dose approved for diabetes treatment) and placebo for weight management in adults with overweight or obesity, and type 2 diabetes.
Methods
This double-blind, double-dummy, phase 3, superiority study enrolled adults with a body-mass index of at least 27 kg/m2 and glycated haemoglobin 7-10% (53-86 mmol/mol) who had been diagnosed with type 2 diabetes at least 180 days before screening. Patients were recruited from 149 outpatient clinics in 12 countries across Europe, North America, South America, the Middle East, South Africa, and Asia. Patients were randomly allocated (1:1:1) via an interactive web-response system and stratified by background glucose-lowering medication and glycated haemoglobin, to subcutaneous injection of semaglutide 2·4 mg, or semaglutide 1·0 mg, or visually matching placebo, once a week for 68 weeks, plus a lifestyle intervention. Patients, investigators, and those assessing outcomes were masked to group assignment. Coprimary endpoints were percentage change in bodyweight and achievement of weight reduction of at least 5% at 68 weeks for semaglutide 2·4 mg versus placebo, assessed by intention to treat. Safety was assessed in all patients who received at least one dose of study drug. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03552757 and is closed to new participants.
Findings
From June 4 to Nov 14, 2018, 1595 patients were screened, of whom 1210 were randomly assigned to semaglutide 2·4 mg (n=404), semaglutide 1·0 mg (n=403), or placebo (n=403) and included in the intention-to-treat analysis. Estimated change in mean bodyweight from baseline to week 68 was -9·6% (SE 0·4) with semaglutide 2·4 mg vs -3·4% (0·4) with placebo. Estimated treatment difference for semaglutide 2·4 mg versus placebo was -6·2 percentage points (95% CI -7·3 to -5·2; p<0·0001). At week 68, more patients on semaglutide 2·4 mg than on placebo achieved weight reductions of at least 5% (267 [68·8%] of 388 vs 107 [28·5%] of 376; odds ratio 4·88, 95% CI 3·58 to 6·64; p<0·0001). Adverse events were more frequent with semaglutide 2·4 mg (in 353 [87·6%] of 403 patients) and 1·0 mg (329 [81·8%] of 402) than with placebo (309 [76·9%] of 402). Gastrointestinal adverse events, which were mostly mild to moderate, were reported in 256 (63·5%) of 403 patients with semaglutide 2·4 mg, 231 (57·5%) of 402 with semaglutide 1·0 mg, and 138 (34·3%) of 402 with placebo.
Interpretation
In adults with overweight or obesity, and type 2 diabetes, semaglutide 2·4 mg once a week achieved a superior and clinically meaningful decrease in bodyweight compared with placebo.
Funding
Novo Nordisk.

Copyright © 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 12 Mar 2021; 397:971-984
Davies M, Færch L, Jeppesen OK, Pakseresht A, ... Lingvay I, STEP 2 Study Group
Lancet: 12 Mar 2021; 397:971-984 | PMID: 33667417
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Impact:
Abstract

Hearing loss prevalence and years lived with disability, 1990-2019: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

GBD 2019 Hearing Loss Collaborators
Background
Hearing loss affects access to spoken language, which can affect cognition and development, and can negatively affect social wellbeing. We present updated estimates from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study on the prevalence of hearing loss in 2019, as well as the condition\'s associated disability.
Methods
We did systematic reviews of population-representative surveys on hearing loss prevalence from 1990 to 2019. We fitted nested meta-regression models for severity-specific prevalence, accounting for hearing aid coverage, cause, and the presence of tinnitus. We also forecasted the prevalence of hearing loss until 2050.
Findings
An estimated 1·57 billion (95% uncertainty interval 1·51-1·64) people globally had hearing loss in 2019, accounting for one in five people (20·3% [19·5-21·1]). Of these, 403·3 million (357·3-449·5) people had hearing loss that was moderate or higher in severity after adjusting for hearing aid use, and 430·4 million (381·7-479·6) without adjustment. The largest number of people with moderate-to-complete hearing loss resided in the Western Pacific region (127·1 million people [112·3-142·6]). Of all people with a hearing impairment, 62·1% (60·2-63·9) were older than 50 years. The Healthcare Access and Quality (HAQ) Index explained 65·8% of the variation in national age-standardised rates of years lived with disability, because countries with a low HAQ Index had higher rates of years lived with disability. By 2050, a projected 2·45 billion (2·35-2·56) people will have hearing loss, a 56·1% (47·3-65·2) increase from 2019, despite stable age-standardised prevalence.
Interpretation
As populations age, the number of people with hearing loss will increase. Interventions such as childhood screening, hearing aids, effective management of otitis media and meningitis, and cochlear implants have the potential to ameliorate this burden. Because the burden of moderate-to-complete hearing loss is concentrated in countries with low health-care quality and access, stronger health-care provision mechanisms are needed to reduce the burden of unaddressed hearing loss in these settings.
Funding
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and WHO.

Copyright © 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 12 Mar 2021; 397:996-1009
GBD 2019 Hearing Loss Collaborators
Lancet: 12 Mar 2021; 397:996-1009 | PMID: 33714390
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Impact:
Abstract

Identification of vulnerable plaques and patients by intracoronary near-infrared spectroscopy and ultrasound (PROSPECT II): a prospective natural history study.

Erlinge D, Maehara A, Ben-Yehuda O, Bøtker HE, ... Stone GW, PROSPECT II Investigators
Background
Near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) and intravascular ultrasound are promising imaging modalities to identify non-obstructive plaques likely to cause coronary-related events. We aimed to assess whether combined NIRS and intravascular ultrasound can identify high-risk plaques and patients that are at risk for future major adverse cardiac events (MACEs).
Methods
PROSPECT II is an investigator-sponsored, multicentre, prospective natural history study done at 14 university hospitals and two community hospitals in Denmark, Norway, and Sweden. We recruited patients of any age with recent (within past 4 weeks) myocardial infarction. After treatment of all flow-limiting coronary lesions, three-vessel imaging was done with a combined NIRS and intravascular ultrasound catheter. Untreated lesions (also known as non-culprit lesions) were identified by intravascular ultrasound and their lipid content was assessed by NIRS. The primary outcome was the covariate-adjusted rate of MACEs (the composite of cardiac death, myocardial infarction, unstable angina, or progressive angina) arising from untreated non-culprit lesions during follow-up. The relations between plaques with high lipid content, large plaque burden, and small lumen areas and patient-level and lesion-level events were determined. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02171065.
Findings
Between June 10, 2014, and Dec 20, 2017, 3629 non-culprit lesions were characterised in 898 patients (153 [17%] women, 745 [83%] men; median age 63 [IQR 55-70] years). Median follow-up was 3·7 (IQR 3·0-4·4) years. Adverse events within 4 years occurred in 112 (13·2%, 95% CI 11·0-15·6) of 898 patients, with 66 (8·0%, 95% CI 6·2-10·0) arising from 78 untreated non-culprit lesions (mean baseline angiographic diameter stenosis 46·9% [SD 15·9]). Highly lipidic lesions (851 [24%] of 3500 lesions, present in 520 [59%] of 884 patients) were an independent predictor of patient-level non-culprit lesion-related MACEs (adjusted odds ratio 2·27, 95% CI 1·25-4·13) and non-culprit lesion-specific MACEs (7·83, 4·12-14·89). Large plaque burden (787 [22%] of 3629 lesions, present in 530 [59%] of 898 patients) was also an independent predictor of non-culprit lesion-related MACEs. Lesions with both large plaque burden by intravascular ultrasound and large lipid-rich cores by NIRS had a 4-year non-culprit lesion-related MACE rate of 7·0% (95% CI 4·0-10·0). Patients in whom one or more such lesions were identified had a 4-year non-culprit lesion-related MACE rate of 13·2% (95% CI 9·4-17·6).
Interpretation
Combined NIRS and intravascular ultrasound detects angiographically non-obstructive lesions with a high lipid content and large plaque burden that are at increased risk for future adverse cardiac outcomes.
Funding
Abbott Vascular, Infraredx, and The Medicines Company.

Copyright © 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 12 Mar 2021; 397:985-995
Erlinge D, Maehara A, Ben-Yehuda O, Bøtker HE, ... Stone GW, PROSPECT II Investigators
Lancet: 12 Mar 2021; 397:985-995 | PMID: 33714389
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Impact:
Abstract

New dimensions for hospital services and early detection of disease: a Review from the Lancet Commission into liver disease in the UK.

Williams R, Alessi C, Alexander G, Allison M, ... Williams J, Yeoman A
This Review, in addressing the unacceptably high mortality of patients with liver disease admitted to acute hospitals, reinforces the need for integrated clinical services. The masterplan described is based on regional, geographically sited liver centres, each linked to four to six surrounding district general hospitals-a pattern of care similar to that successfully introduced for stroke services. The plan includes the establishment of a lead and deputy lead clinician in each acute hospital, preferably a hepatologist or gastroenterologist with a special interest in liver disease, who will have prime responsibility for organising the care of admitted patients with liver disease on a 24/7 basis. Essential for the plan is greater access to intensive care units and high-dependency units, in line with the reconfiguration of emergency care due to the COVID-19 pandemic. This Review strongly recommends full implementation of alcohol care teams in hospitals and improved working links with acute medical services. We also endorse recommendations from paediatric liver services to improve overall survival figures by diagnosing biliary atresia earlier based on stool colour charts and better caring for patients with impaired cognitive ability and developmental mental health problems. Pilot studies of earlier diagnosis have shown encouraging progress, with 5-6% of previously undiagnosed cases of severe fibrosis or cirrhosis identified through use of a portable FibroScan in primary care. Similar approaches to the detection of early asymptomatic disease are described in accounts from the devolved nations, and the potential of digital technology in improving the value of clinical consultation and screening programmes in primary care is highlighted. The striking contribution of comorbidities, particularly obesity and diabetes (with excess alcohol consumption known to be a major factor in obesity), to mortality in COVID-19 reinforces the need for fiscal and other long delayed regulatory measures to reduce the prevalence of obesity. These measures include the food sugar levy and the introduction of the minimum unit price policy to reduce alcohol consumption. Improving public health, this Review emphasises, will not only mitigate the severity of further waves of COVID-19, but is crucial to reducing the unacceptable burden from liver disease in the UK.

Copyright © 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 09 Mar 2021; epub ahead of print
Williams R, Alessi C, Alexander G, Allison M, ... Williams J, Yeoman A
Lancet: 09 Mar 2021; epub ahead of print | PMID: 33714360
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Impact:
Abstract

Anxiety disorders.

Penninx BW, Pine DS, Holmes EA, Reif A
Anxiety disorders form the most common group of mental disorders and generally start before or in early adulthood. Core features include excessive fear and anxiety or avoidance of perceived threats that are persistent and impairing. Anxiety disorders involve dysfunction in brain circuits that respond to danger. Risk for anxiety disorders is influenced by genetic factors, environmental factors, and their epigenetic relations. Anxiety disorders are often comorbid with one another and with other mental disorders, especially depression, as well as with somatic disorders. Such comorbidity generally signifies more severe symptoms, greater clinical burden, and greater treatment difficulty. Reducing the large burden of disease from anxiety disorders in individuals and worldwide can be best achieved by timely, accurate disease detection and adequate treatment administration, scaling up of treatments when needed. Evidence-based psychotherapy (particularly cognitive behavioural therapy) and psychoactive medications (particularly serotonergic compounds) are both effective, facilitating patients\' choices in therapeutic decisions. Although promising, no enduring preventive measures are available, and, along with frequent therapy resistance, clinical needs remain unaddressed. Ongoing research efforts tackle these problems, and future efforts should seek individualised, more effective approaches for treatment with precision medicine.

Copyright © 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 05 Mar 2021; 397:914-927
Penninx BW, Pine DS, Holmes EA, Reif A
Lancet: 05 Mar 2021; 397:914-927 | PMID: 33581801
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Impact:
Abstract

Improving lung health in low-income and middle-income countries: from challenges to solutions.

Meghji J, Mortimer K, Agusti A, Allwood BW, ... Zar HJ, Marks GB
Low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) bear a disproportionately high burden of the global morbidity and mortality caused by chronic respiratory diseases (CRDs), including asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, bronchiectasis, and post-tuberculosis lung disease. CRDs are strongly associated with poverty, infectious diseases, and other non-communicable diseases (NCDs), and contribute to complex multi-morbidity, with major consequences for the lives and livelihoods of those affected. The relevance of CRDs to health and socioeconomic wellbeing is expected to increase in the decades ahead, as life expectancies rise and the competing risks of early childhood mortality and infectious diseases plateau. As such, the World Health Organization has identified the prevention and control of NCDs as an urgent development issue and essential to the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals by 2030. In this Review, we focus on CRDs in LMICs. We discuss the early life origins of CRDs; challenges in their prevention, diagnosis, and management in LMICs; and pathways to solutions to achieve true universal health coverage.

Copyright © 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 05 Mar 2021; 397:928-940
Meghji J, Mortimer K, Agusti A, Allwood BW, ... Zar HJ, Marks GB
Lancet: 05 Mar 2021; 397:928-940 | PMID: 33631128
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Impact:
Abstract

Diagnosis of non-consensus transient ischaemic attacks with focal, negative, and non-progressive symptoms: population-based validation by investigation and prognosis.

Tuna MA, Rothwell PM, Oxford Vascular Study
Background
Diagnosis of transient ischaemic attacks (TIAs) can be difficult. There is consensus on classic symptoms (eg, motor weakness, dysphasia, hemianopia, monocular visual loss) but no consensus on several monosymptomatic events with sudden-onset, non-progressive, focal negative symptoms (eg, isolated diplopia, dysarthria, vertigo, ataxia, sensory loss, and bilateral visual disturbance), with much variation in investigation and treatment.
Methods
We prospectively ascertained and investigated all strokes and sudden onset transient neurological symptoms in a population of 92 728 people (no age restrictions) from Oxfordshire, UK, who sought medical attention at nine primary care practices or at the John Radcliffe Hospital, Oxford, UK (Oxford Vascular Study). Patients classified at baseline with minor ischaemic stroke (National Institutes of Health Stroke Score <5), classic TIA, or non-consensus TIA were treated according to secondary prevention guidelines. Risks of stroke (7-day, 90-day, and 10-year risks) and risks of all major vascular events (from the time of first event, and from the time of seeking medical attention) were established by face-to-face follow-up visits and were compared with the risk expected from age and sex-specific stroke incidence in the underlying study population.
Findings
Between April 1, 2002, and March 31, 2018, 2878 patients were identified with minor ischaemic stroke (n=1287), classic TIA (n=1021), or non-consensus TIA (n=570). Follow-up was to Oct 1, 2018 (median 5·2 [IQR 2·6-9·2] years). 577 first recurrent strokes after the index event occurred during 17 009 person-years of follow-up. 90-day stroke risk from time of the index event after a non-consensus TIA was similar to that after classic TIA (10·6% [95% CI 7·8-12·9] vs 11·6% [95% CI 9·6-13·6]; hazard ratio 0·87, 95% CI 0·64-1·19; p=0·43), and higher than after amaurosis fugax (4·3% [95% CI 0·6-8·0]; p=0·042). However, patients with non-consensus TIA were less likely to seek medical attention on the day of the event than were those with classic TIA (336 of 570 [59%] vs 768 of 1021 [75%]; odds ratio [OR] 0·47, 95% CI 0·38-0·59; p<0·0001) and were more likely to have recurrent strokes before seeking attention (45 of 570 [8%] vs 47 of 1021 [5%]; OR 1·77, 95% CI 1·16-2·71; p=0·007). After excluding such recurrent strokes, 7-day stroke risk after seeking attention for non-consensus TIA (2·9% [95% CI 1·5-4·3]) was still considerably higher than the expected background risk (relative risk [RR] 203, 95% CI 113-334), particularly if the patient sought attention on the day of the index event (5·0% [2·1-7·9]; RR 300, 137-569). 10-year risk of all major vascular events was similar for non-consensus and classic TIAs (27·1% [95% CI 22·8-31·4] vs 30·9% [27·2-33·7]; p=0·12). Baseline prevalence of atrial fibrillation, patent foramen ovale, and arterial stenoses were also similar for non-consensus TIA and classic TIA, although stenoses in the posterior circulation were more frequent with non-consensus TIA (OR 2·21, 95% CI 1·59-3·08; p<0·0001).
Interpretation
Patients with non-consensus TIA are at high early and long-term risk of stroke and have cardiovascular pathological findings on investigation similar to those of classic TIA. Designation of non-consensus TIAs as definite cerebrovascular events will increase overall TIA diagnoses by about 50%.
Funding
Wellcome Trust, National Institute for Health Research Oxford Biomedical Research Centre, Wolfson Foundation, Masonic Charitable Foundation, and British Heart Foundation.

Copyright © 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 05 Mar 2021; 397:902-912
Tuna MA, Rothwell PM, Oxford Vascular Study
Lancet: 05 Mar 2021; 397:902-912 | PMID: 33676629
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Impact:
Abstract

Pirtobrutinib in relapsed or refractory B-cell malignancies (BRUIN): a phase 1/2 study.

Mato AR, Shah NN, Jurczak W, Cheah CY, ... Brown JR, Wang M
Background
Covalent Bruton\'s tyrosine kinase (BTK) inhibitors are efficacious in multiple B-cell malignancies, but patients discontinue these agents due to resistance and intolerance. We evaluated the safety and efficacy of pirtobrutinib (working name; formerly known as LOXO-305), a highly selective, reversible BTK inhibitor, in these patients.
Methods
Patients with previously treated B-cell malignancies were enrolled in a first-in-human, multicentre, open-label, phase 1/2 trial of the BTK inhibitor pirtobrutinib. The primary endpoint was the maximum tolerated dose (phase 1) and overall response rate (ORR; phase 2). This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03740529.
Findings
323 patients were treated with pirtobrutinib across seven dose levels (25 mg, 50 mg, 100 mg, 150 mg, 200 mg, 250 mg, and 300 mg once per day) with linear dose-proportional exposures. No dose-limiting toxicities were observed and the maximum tolerated dose was not reached. The recommended phase 2 dose was 200 mg daily. Adverse events in at least 10% of 323 patients were fatigue (65 [20%]), diarrhoea (55 [17%]), and contusion (42 [13%]). The most common adverse event of grade 3 or higher was neutropenia (32 [10%]). There was no correlation between pirtobrutinib exposure and the frequency of grade 3 treatment-related adverse events. Grade 3 atrial fibrillation or flutter was not observed, and grade 3 haemorrhage was observed in one patient in the setting of mechanical trauma. Five (1%) patients discontinued treatment due to a treatment-related adverse event. In 121 efficacy evaluable patients with chronic lymphocytic leukaemia (CLL) or small lymphocytic lymphoma (SLL) treated with a previous covalent BTK inhibitor (median previous lines of treatment 4), the ORR with pirtobrutinib was 62% (95% CI 53-71). The ORR was similar in CLL patients with previous covalent BTK inhibitor resistance (53 [67%] of 79), covalent BTK inhibitor intolerance (22 [52%] of 42), BTK C481-mutant (17 [71%] of 24) and BTK wild-type (43 [66%] of 65) disease. In 52 efficacy evaluable patients with mantle cell lymphoma (MCL) previously treated with covalent BTK inhibitors, the ORR was 52% (95% CI 38-66). Of 117 patients with CLL, SLL, or MCL who responded, all but eight remain progression-free to date.
Interpretation
Pirtobrutinib was safe and active in multiple B-cell malignancies, including patients previously treated with covalent BTK inhibitors. Pirtobrutinib might address a growing unmet need for alternative therapies for these patients.
Funding
Loxo Oncology.

Copyright © 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 05 Mar 2021; 397:892-901
Mato AR, Shah NN, Jurczak W, Cheah CY, ... Brown JR, Wang M
Lancet: 05 Mar 2021; 397:892-901 | PMID: 33676628
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Impact:
Abstract

Alzheimer\'s disease.

Scheltens P, De Strooper B, Kivipelto M, Holstege H, ... Cummings J, van der Flier WM
In this Seminar, we highlight the main developments in the field of Alzheimer\'s disease. The most recent data indicate that, by 2050, the prevalence of dementia will double in Europe and triple worldwide, and that estimate is 3 times higher when based on a biological (rather than clinical) definition of Alzheimer\'s disease. The earliest phase of Alzheimer\'s disease (cellular phase) happens in parallel with accumulating amyloid β, inducing the spread of tau pathology. The risk of Alzheimer\'s disease is 60-80% dependent on heritable factors, with more than 40 Alzheimer\'s disease-associated genetic risk loci already identified, of which the APOE alleles have the strongest association with the disease. Novel biomarkers include PET scans and plasma assays for amyloid β and phosphorylated tau, which show great promise for clinical and research use. Multidomain lifestyle-based prevention trials suggest cognitive benefits in participants with increased risk of dementia. Lifestyle factors do not directly affect Alzheimer\'s disease pathology, but can still contribute to a positive outcome in individuals with Alzheimer\'s disease. Promising pharmacological treatments are poised at advanced stages of clinical trials and include anti-amyloid β, anti-tau, and anti-inflammatory strategies.

Copyright © 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 01 Mar 2021; epub ahead of print
Scheltens P, De Strooper B, Kivipelto M, Holstege H, ... Cummings J, van der Flier WM
Lancet: 01 Mar 2021; epub ahead of print | PMID: 33667416
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Impact:
Abstract

[Lu]Lu-PSMA-617 versus cabazitaxel in patients with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (TheraP): a randomised, open-label, phase 2 trial.

Hofman MS, Emmett L, Sandhu S, Iravani A, ... Davis ID, TheraP Trial Investigators and the Australian and New Zealand Urogenital and Prostate Cancer Trials Group
Background
Lutetium-177 [177Lu]Lu-PSMA-617 is a radiolabelled small molecule that delivers β radiation to cells expressing prostate-specific membrane antigen (PSMA), with activity and safety in patients with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer. We aimed to compare [177Lu]Lu-PSMA-617 with cabazitaxel in patients with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer.
Methods
We did this multicentre, unblinded, randomised phase 2 trial at 11 centres in Australia. We recruited men with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer for whom cabazitaxel was considered the next appropriate standard treatment. Participants were required to have adequate renal, haematological, and liver function, and an Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status of 0-2. Previous treatment with androgen receptor-directed therapy was allowed. Men underwent gallium-68 [68Ga]Ga-PSMA-11 and 2-flourine-18[18F]fluoro-2-deoxy-D-glucose (FDG) PET-CT scans. PET eligibility criteria for the trial were PSMA-positive disease, and no sites of metastatic disease with discordant FDG-positive and PSMA-negative findings. Men were randomly assigned (1:1) to [177Lu]Lu-PSMA-617 (6·0-8·5 GBq intravenously every 6 weeks for up to six cycles) or cabazitaxel (20 mg/m2 intravenously every 3 weeks for up to ten cycles). The primary endpoint was prostate-specific antigen (PSA) response defined by a reduction of at least 50% from baseline. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03392428.
Findings
Between Feb 6, 2018, and Sept 3, 2019, we screened 291 men, of whom 200 were eligible on PET imaging. Study treatment was received by 98 (99%) of 99 men randomly assigned to [177Lu]Lu-PSMA-617 versus 85 (84%) of 101 randomly assigned to cabazitaxel. PSA responses were more frequent among men in the [177Lu]Lu-PSMA-617 group than in the cabazitaxel group (65 vs 37 PSA responses; 66% vs 37% by intention to treat; difference 29% (95% CI 16-42; p<0·0001; and 66% vs 44% by treatment received; difference 23% [9-37]; p=0·0016). Grade 3-4 adverse events occurred in 32 (33%) of 98 men in the [177Lu]Lu-PSMA-617 group versus 45 (53%) of 85 men in the cabazitaxel group. No deaths were attributed to [177Lu]Lu-PSMA-617.
Interpretation
[177Lu]Lu-PSMA-617 compared with cabazitaxel in men with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer led to a higher PSA response and fewer grade 3 or 4 adverse events. [177Lu]Lu-PSMA-617 is a new effective class of therapy and a potential alternative to cabazitaxel.
Funding
Prostate Cancer Foundation of Australia, Endocyte (a Novartis company), Australian Nuclear Science and Technology Organization, Movember, The Distinguished Gentleman\'s Ride, It\'s a Bloke Thing, and CAN4CANCER.

Copyright © 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 26 Feb 2021; 397:797-804
Hofman MS, Emmett L, Sandhu S, Iravani A, ... Davis ID, TheraP Trial Investigators and the Australian and New Zealand Urogenital and Prostate Cancer Trials Group
Lancet: 26 Feb 2021; 397:797-804 | PMID: 33581798
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Impact:
Abstract

Endometriosis is a chronic systemic disease: clinical challenges and novel innovations.

Taylor HS, Kotlyar AM, Flores VA
Endometriosis is a common disease affecting 5-10% of women of reproductive age globally. However, despite its prevalence, diagnosis is typically delayed by years, misdiagnosis is common, and delivery of effective therapy is prolonged. Identification and prompt treatment of endometriosis are essential and facilitated by accurate clinical diagnosis. Endometriosis is classically defined as a chronic, gynaecological disease characterised by endometrial-like tissue present outside of the uterus and is thought to arise by retrograde menstruation. However, this description is outdated and no longer reflects the true scope and manifestations of the disease. The clinical presentation is varied, the presence of pelvic lesions is heterogeneous, and the manifestations of the disease outside of the female reproductive tract remain poorly understood. Endometriosis is now considered a systemic disease rather than a disease predominantly affecting the pelvis. Endometriosis affects metabolism in liver and adipose tissue, leads to systemic inflammation, and alters gene expression in the brain that causes pain sensitisation and mood disorders. The full effect of the disease is not fully recognised and goes far beyond the pelvis. Recognition of the full scope of the disease will facilitate clinical diagnosis and allow for more comprehensive treatment than currently available. Progestins and low-dose oral contraceptives are unsuccessful in a third of symptomatic women globally, probably as a result of progesterone resistance. Oral gonadotropin-releasing hormone (GnRH) antagonists constitute an effective and tolerable therapeutic alternative when first-line medications do not work. The development of GnRH antagonists has resulted in oral drugs that have fewer side-effects than other therapies and has allowed for rapid movement between treatments to optimise and personalise endometriosis care. In this Review, we discuss the latest understanding of endometriosis as a systemic disease with multiple manifestations outside the parameters of classic gynaecological disease.

Copyright © 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 26 Feb 2021; 397:839-852
Taylor HS, Kotlyar AM, Flores VA
Lancet: 26 Feb 2021; 397:839-852 | PMID: 33640070
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Abstract

The inverse care law re-examined: a global perspective.

Cookson R, Doran T, Asaria M, Gupta I, Mujica FP
An inverse care law persists in almost all low-income and middle-income countries, whereby socially disadvantaged people receive less, and lower-quality, health care despite having greater need. By contrast, a disproportionate care law persists in high-income countries, whereby socially disadvantaged people receive more health care, but of worse quality and insufficient quantity to meet their additional needs. Both laws are caused not only by financial barriers and fragmented health insurance systems but also by social inequalities in care seeking and co-investment as well as the costs and benefits of health care. Investing in more integrated universal health coverage and stronger primary care, delivered in proportion to need, can improve population health and reduce health inequality. However, trade-offs sometimes exist between health policy objectives. Health-care technologies, policies, and resourcing should be subjected to distributional analysis of their equity impacts, to ensure the objective of reducing health inequalities is kept in sight.

Copyright © 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 26 Feb 2021; 397:828-838
Cookson R, Doran T, Asaria M, Gupta I, Mujica FP
Lancet: 26 Feb 2021; 397:828-838 | PMID: 33640069
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Abstract

Effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of reactive, targeted indoor residual spraying for malaria control in low-transmission settings: a cluster-randomised, non-inferiority trial in South Africa.

Bath D, Cook J, Govere J, Mathebula P, ... Pitt C, Kleinschmidt I
Background
Increasing insecticide costs and constrained malaria budgets could make universal vector control strategies, such as indoor residual spraying (IRS), unsustainable in low-transmission settings. We investigated the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of a reactive, targeted IRS strategy.
Methods
This cluster-randomised, open-label, non-inferiority trial compared reactive, targeted IRS with standard IRS practice in northeastern South Africa over two malaria seasons (2015-17). In standard IRS clusters, programme managers conducted annual mass spray campaigns prioritising areas using historical data, expert opinion, and other factors. In targeted IRS clusters, only houses of index cases (identified through passive surveillance) and their immediate neighbours were sprayed. The non-inferiority margin was 1 case per 1000 person-years. Health service costs of real-world implementation were modelled from primary and secondary data. Incremental costs per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) were estimated and deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses conducted. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02556242.
Findings
Malaria incidence was 0·95 per 1000 person-years (95% CI 0·58 to 1·32) in the standard IRS group and 1·05 per 1000 person-years (0·72 to 1·38) in the targeted IRS group, corresponding to a rate difference of 0·10 per 1000 person-years (-0·38 to 0·59), demonstrating non-inferiority for targeted IRS (p<0·0001). Per additional DALY incurred, targeted IRS saved US$7845 (2902 to 64 907), giving a 94-98% probability that switching to targeted IRS would be cost-effective relative to plausible cost-effectiveness thresholds for South Africa ($2637 to $3557 per DALY averted). Depending on the threshold used, targeted IRS would remain cost-effective at incidences of less than 2·0-2·7 per 1000 person-years. Findings were robust to plausible variation in other parameters.
Interpretation
Targeted IRS was non-inferior, safe, less costly, and cost-effective compared with standard IRS in this very-low-transmission setting. Saved resources could be reallocated to other malaria control and elimination activities.
Funding
Joint Global Health Trials.

Copyright © 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 26 Feb 2021; 397:816-827
Bath D, Cook J, Govere J, Mathebula P, ... Pitt C, Kleinschmidt I
Lancet: 26 Feb 2021; 397:816-827 | PMID: 33640068
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Abstract

Impact and cost-effectiveness of a lethal house lure against malaria transmission in central Côte d\'Ivoire: a two-arm, cluster-randomised controlled trial.

Sternberg ED, Cook J, Alou LPA, Assi SB, ... N\'Guessan R, Thomas MB
Background
New vector control tools are required to sustain the fight against malaria. Lethal house lures, which target mosquitoes as they attempt to enter houses to blood feed, are one approach. Here we evaluated lethal house lures consisting of In2Care (Wageningen, Netherlands) Eave Tubes, which provide point-source insecticide treatments against host-seeking mosquitoes, in combination with house screening, which aims to reduce mosquito entry.
Methods
We did a two-arm, cluster-randomised controlled trial with 40 village-level clusters in central Côte d\'Ivoire between Sept 26, 2016, and April 10, 2019. All households received new insecticide-treated nets at universal coverage (one bednet per two people). Suitable households within the clusters assigned to the treatment group were offered screening plus Eave Tubes, with Eave Tubes treated using a 10% wettable powder formulation of the pyrethroid β-cyfluthrin. Because of the nature of the intervention, treatment could not be masked for households and field teams, but all analyses were blinded. The primary endpoint was clinical malaria incidence recorded by active case detection over 2 years in cohorts of children aged 6 months to 10 years. This trial is registered with ISRCTN, ISRCTN18145556.
Findings
3022 houses received screening plus Eave Tubes, with an average coverage of 70% across the intervention clusters. 1300 eligible children were recruited for active case detection in the control group and 1260 in the intervention group. During the 2-year follow-up period, malaria case incidence was 2·29 per child-year (95% CI 1·97-2·61) in the control group and 1·43 per child-year (1·21-1·65) in the intervention group (hazard ratio 0·62, 95% CI 0·51-0·76; p<0·0001). Cost-effectiveness simulations suggested that screening plus Eave Tubes has a 74·0% chance of representing a cost-effective intervention, compared with existing healthcare activities in Côte d\'Ivoire, and is similarly cost-effective to other core vector control interventions across sub-Saharan Africa. No serious adverse events associated with the intervention were reported during follow-up.
Interpretation
Screening plus Eave Tubes can provide protection against malaria in addition to the effects of insecticide-treated nets, offering potential for a new, cost-effective strategy to supplement existing vector control tools. Additional trials are needed to confirm these initial results and further optimise Eave Tubes and the lethal house lure concept to facilitate adoption.
Funding
The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Copyright © 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 26 Feb 2021; 397:805-815
Sternberg ED, Cook J, Alou LPA, Assi SB, ... N'Guessan R, Thomas MB
Lancet: 26 Feb 2021; 397:805-815 | PMID: 33640067
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Abstract

Therapeutics targeting the IL-23 and IL-17 pathway in psoriasis.

Ghoreschi K, Balato A, Enerbäck C, Sabat R
Psoriasis is a chronic inflammatory disease characterised by sharply demarcated erythematous and scaly skin lesions accompanied by systemic manifestations. Classified by WHO as one of the most serious non-infectious diseases, psoriasis affects 2-3% of the global population. Mechanistically, psoriatic lesions result from hyperproliferation and disturbed differentiation of epidermal keratinocytes that are provoked by immune mediators of the IL-23 and IL-17 pathway. Translational immunology has had impressive success in understanding and controlling psoriasis. Psoriasis is the first disease to have been successfully treated with therapeutics that directly block the action of the cytokines of this pathway; in fact, therapeutics that specifically target IL-23, IL-17, and IL-17RA are approved for clinical use and show excellent efficacy. Furthermore, inhibitors of IL-23 and IL-17 intracellular signalling, such as TYK2 or RORγt, are in clinical development. Although therapies that target the IL-23 and IL-17 pathway also improve psoriatic arthritis symptoms, their effects on long-term disease modification and psoriasis-associated comorbidities still need to be explored.

Copyright © 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 19 Feb 2021; 397:754-766
Ghoreschi K, Balato A, Enerbäck C, Sabat R
Lancet: 19 Feb 2021; 397:754-766 | PMID: 33515492
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Abstract

A comparison of sunitinib with cabozantinib, crizotinib, and savolitinib for treatment of advanced papillary renal cell carcinoma: a randomised, open-label, phase 2 trial.

Pal SK, Tangen C, Thompson IM, Balzer-Haas N, ... Wright J, Lara PN
Background
MET (also known as hepatocyte growth factor receptor) signalling is a key driver of papillary renal cell carcinoma (PRCC). Given that no optimal therapy for metastatic PRCC exists, we aimed to compare an existing standard of care, sunitinib, with the MET kinase inhibitors cabozantinib, crizotinib, and savolitinib for treatment of patients with PRCC.
Methods
We did a randomised, open-label, phase 2 trial done in 65 centres in the USA and Canada. Eligible patients were aged 18 years or older with metastatic PRCC who had received up to one previous therapy (excluding vascular endothelial growth factor-directed and MET-directed agents). Patients were randomly assigned to receive sunitinib, cabozantinib, crizotinib, or savolitinib, with stratification by receipt of previous therapy and PRCC subtype. All drug doses were administered orally: sunitinib 50 mg, 4 weeks on and 2 weeks off (dose reductions to 37·5 mg and 25 mg allowed); cabozantinib 60 mg daily (reductions to 40 mg and 20 mg allowed); crizotinib 250 mg twice daily (reductions to 200 mg twice daily and 250 mg once daily allowed); and savolitinib 600 mg daily (reductions to 400 mg and 200 mg allowed). Progression-free survival (PFS) was the primary endpoint. Analyses were done in an intention-to-treat population, with patients who did not receive protocol therapy excluded from safety analyses. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02761057.
Findings
Between April 5, 2016, and Dec 15, 2019, 152 patients were randomly assigned to one of four study groups. Five patients were identified as ineligible post-randomisation and were excluded from these analyses, resulting in 147 eligible patients. Assignment to the savolitinib (29 patients) and crizotinib (28 patients) groups was halted after a prespecified futility analysis; planned accrual was completed for both sunitinib (46 patients) and cabozantinib (44 patients) groups. PFS was longer in patients in the cabozantinib group (median 9·0 months, 95% CI 6-12) than in the sunitinib group (5·6 months, 3-7; hazard ratio for progression or death 0·60, 0·37-0·97, one-sided p=0·019). Response rate for cabozantinib was 23% versus 4% for sunitinib (two-sided p=0·010). Savolitinib and crizotinib did not improve PFS compared with sunitinib. Grade 3 or 4 adverse events occurred in 31 (69%) of 45 patients receiving sunitinib, 32 (74%) of 43 receiving cabozantinib, ten (37%) of 27 receiving crizotinib, and 11 (39%) of 28 receiving savolitinib; one grade 5 thromboembolic event was recorded in the cabozantinib group.
Interpretation
Cabozantinib treatment resulted in significantly longer PFS compared with sunitinib in patients with metastatic PRCC.
Funding
National Institutes of Health and National Cancer Institute.

Copyright © 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 19 Feb 2021; 397:695-703
Pal SK, Tangen C, Thompson IM, Balzer-Haas N, ... Wright J, Lara PN
Lancet: 19 Feb 2021; 397:695-703 | PMID: 33592176
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Abstract

The changing treatment landscape in haemophilia: from standard half-life clotting factor concentrates to gene editing.

Mancuso ME, Mahlangu JN, Pipe SW
Congenital haemophilia A (factor VIII deficiency) and B (factor IX deficiency) are X-linked bleeding disorders. Replacement therapy has been the cornerstone of the management of haemophilia, aiming to reduce the mortality and morbidity of chronic crippling arthropathy. Frequent intravenous injections are burdensome and costly for patients, consequently with poor adherence and restricted access to therapy for many patients worldwide. Bioengineered clotting factors with enhanced pharmacokinetic profiles can reduce the burden of treatment. However, replacement therapy is associated with a risk for inhibitor development that adversely affects bleeding prevention and outcomes. Novel molecules that are subcutaneously delivered provide effective prophylaxis in the presence or absence of inhibitors, either substituting for the procoagulant function of clotting factors (eg, emicizumab) or targeting the natural inhibitors of coagulation (ie, antithrombin, tissue factor pathway inhibitor, or activated protein C). The ultimate goal of haemophilia treatment would be a phenotypical cure achievable with gene therapy, currently under late phase clinical investigation.

Copyright © 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 12 Feb 2021; 397:630-640
Mancuso ME, Mahlangu JN, Pipe SW
Lancet: 12 Feb 2021; 397:630-640 | PMID: 33460559
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Abstract

Adrenal insufficiency.

Husebye ES, Pearce SH, Krone NP, Kämpe O
Adrenal insufficiency can arise from a primary adrenal disorder, secondary to adrenocorticotropic hormone deficiency, or by suppression of adrenocorticotropic hormone by exogenous glucocorticoid or opioid medications. Hallmark clinical features are unintentional weight loss, anorexia, postural hypotension, profound fatigue, muscle and abdominal pain, and hyponatraemia. Additionally, patients with primary adrenal insufficiency usually develop skin hyperpigmentation and crave salt. Diagnosis of adrenal insufficiency is usually delayed because the initial presentation is often non-specific; physician awareness must be improved to avoid adrenal crisis. Despite state-of-the-art steroid replacement therapy, reduced quality of life and work capacity, and increased mortality is reported in patients with primary or secondary adrenal insufficiency. Active and repeated patient education on managing adrenal insufficiency, including advice on how to increase medication during intercurrent illness, medical or dental procedures, and profound stress, is required to prevent adrenal crisis, which occurs in about 50% of patients with adrenal insufficiency after diagnosis. It is good practice for physicians to provide patients with a steroid card, parenteral hydrocortisone, and training for parenteral hydrocortisone administration, in case of vomiting or severe illness. New modes of glucocorticoid delivery could improve the quality of life in some patients with adrenal insufficiency, and further advances in oral and parenteral therapy will probably emerge in the next few years.

Copyright © 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 12 Feb 2021; 397:613-629
Husebye ES, Pearce SH, Krone NP, Kämpe O
Lancet: 12 Feb 2021; 397:613-629 | PMID: 33484633
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Impact:
Abstract

Azithromycin in patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19 (RECOVERY): a randomised, controlled, open-label, platform trial.

RECOVERY Collaborative Group
Background
Azithromycin has been proposed as a treatment for COVID-19 on the basis of its immunomodulatory actions. We aimed to evaluate the safety and efficacy of azithromycin in patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19.
Methods
In this randomised, controlled, open-label, adaptive platform trial (Randomised Evaluation of COVID-19 Therapy [RECOVERY]), several possible treatments were compared with usual care in patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19 in the UK. The trial is underway at 176 hospitals in the UK. Eligible and consenting patients were randomly allocated to either usual standard of care alone or usual standard of care plus azithromycin 500 mg once per day by mouth or intravenously for 10 days or until discharge (or allocation to one of the other RECOVERY treatment groups). Patients were assigned via web-based simple (unstratified) randomisation with allocation concealment and were twice as likely to be randomly assigned to usual care than to any of the active treatment groups. Participants and local study staff were not masked to the allocated treatment, but all others involved in the trial were masked to the outcome data during the trial. The primary outcome was 28-day all-cause mortality, assessed in the intention-to-treat population. The trial is registered with ISRCTN, 50189673, and ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04381936.
Findings
Between April 7 and Nov 27, 2020, of 16 442 patients enrolled in the RECOVERY trial, 9433 (57%) were eligible and 7763 were included in the assessment of azithromycin. The mean age of these study participants was 65·3 years (SD 15·7) and approximately a third were women (2944 [38%] of 7763). 2582 patients were randomly allocated to receive azithromycin and 5181 patients were randomly allocated to usual care alone. Overall, 561 (22%) patients allocated to azithromycin and 1162 (22%) patients allocated to usual care died within 28 days (rate ratio 0·97, 95% CI 0·87-1·07; p=0·50). No significant difference was seen in duration of hospital stay (median 10 days [IQR 5 to >28] vs 11 days [5 to >28]) or the proportion of patients discharged from hospital alive within 28 days (rate ratio 1·04, 95% CI 0·98-1·10; p=0·19). Among those not on invasive mechanical ventilation at baseline, no significant difference was seen in the proportion meeting the composite endpoint of invasive mechanical ventilation or death (risk ratio 0·95, 95% CI 0·87-1·03; p=0·24).
Interpretation
In patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19, azithromycin did not improve survival or other prespecified clinical outcomes. Azithromycin use in patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19 should be restricted to patients in whom there is a clear antimicrobial indication.
Funding
UK Research and Innovation (Medical Research Council) and National Institute of Health Research.

Copyright © 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 12 Feb 2021; 397:605-612
RECOVERY Collaborative Group
Lancet: 12 Feb 2021; 397:605-612 | PMID: 33545096
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Impact:
Abstract

Cemiplimab monotherapy for first-line treatment of advanced non-small-cell lung cancer with PD-L1 of at least 50%: a multicentre, open-label, global, phase 3, randomised, controlled trial.

Sezer A, Kilickap S, Gümüş M, Bondarenko I, ... Lowy I, Rietschel P
Background
We aimed to examine cemiplimab, a programmed cell death 1 inhibitor, in the first-line treatment of advanced non-small-cell lung cancer with programmed cell death ligand 1 (PD-L1) of at least 50%.
Methods
In EMPOWER-Lung 1, a multicentre, open-label, global, phase 3 study, eligible patients recruited in 138 clinics from 24 countries (aged ≥18 years with histologically or cytologically confirmed advanced non-small-cell lung cancer, an Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status of 0-1; never-smokers were ineligible) were randomly assigned (1:1) to cemiplimab 350 mg every 3 weeks or platinum-doublet chemotherapy. Crossover from chemotherapy to cemiplimab was allowed following disease progression. Primary endpoints were overall survival and progression-free survival per masked independent review committee. Primary endpoints were assessed in the intention-to-treat population and in a prespecified PD-L1 of at least 50% population (per US Food and Drug Administration request to the sponsor), which consisted of patients with PD-L1 of at least 50% per 22C3 assay done according to instructions for use. Adverse events were assessed in all patients who received at least one dose of the assigned treatment. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03088540 and is ongoing.
Findings
Between June 27, 2017 and Feb 27, 2020, 710 patients were randomly assigned (intention-to-treat population). In the PD-L1 of at least 50% population, which consisted of 563 patients, median overall survival was not reached (95% CI 17·9-not evaluable) with cemiplimab (n=283) versus 14·2 months (11·2-17·5) with chemotherapy (n=280; hazard ratio [HR] 0·57 [0·42-0·77]; p=0·0002). Median progression-free survival was 8·2 months (6·1-8·8) with cemiplimab versus 5·7 months (4·5-6·2) with chemotherapy (HR 0·54 [0·43-0·68]; p<0·0001). Significant improvements in overall survival and progression-free survival were also observed with cemiplimab in the intention-to-treat population despite a high crossover rate (74%). Grade 3-4 treatment-emergent adverse events occurred in 98 (28%) of 355 patients treated with cemiplimab and 135 (39%) of 342 patients treated with chemotherapy.
Interpretation
Cemiplimab monotherapy significantly improved overall survival and progression-free survival compared with chemotherapy in patients with advanced non-small-cell lung cancer with PD-L1 of at least 50%, providing a potential new treatment option for this patient population.
Funding
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals and Sanofi.

Copyright © 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 12 Feb 2021; 397:592-604
Sezer A, Kilickap S, Gümüş M, Bondarenko I, ... Lowy I, Rietschel P
Lancet: 12 Feb 2021; 397:592-604 | PMID: 33581821
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Impact:
Abstract

Transdermal oestradiol for androgen suppression in prostate cancer: long-term cardiovascular outcomes from the randomised Prostate Adenocarcinoma Transcutaneous Hormone (PATCH) trial programme.

Langley RE, Gilbert DC, Duong T, Clarke NW, ... Kynaston H, Parmar M
Background
Androgen suppression is a central component of prostate cancer management but causes substantial long-term toxicity. Transdermal administration of oestradiol (tE2) circumvents first-pass hepatic metabolism and, therefore, should avoid the cardiovascular toxicity seen with oral oestrogen and the oestrogen-depletion effects seen with luteinising hormone releasing hormone agonists (LHRHa). We present long-term cardiovascular follow-up data from the Prostate Adenocarcinoma Transcutaneous Hormone (PATCH) trial programme.
Methods
PATCH is a seamless phase 2/3, randomised, multicentre trial programme at 52 study sites in the UK. Men with locally advanced or metastatic prostate cancer were randomly allocated (1:2 from August, 2007 then 1:1 from February, 2011) to either LHRHa according to local practice or tE2 patches (four 100 μg patches per 24 h, changed twice weekly, reducing to three patches twice weekly if castrate at 4 weeks [defined as testosterone ≤1·7 nmol/L]). Randomisation was done using a computer-based minimisation algorithm and was stratified by several factors, including disease stage, age, smoking status, and family history of cardiac disease. The primary outcome of this analysis was cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. Cardiovascular events, including heart failure, acute coronary syndrome, thromboembolic stroke, and other thromboembolic events, were confirmed using predefined criteria and source data. Sudden or unexpected deaths were attributed to a cardiovascular category if a confirmatory post-mortem report was available and as other relevant events if no post-mortem report was available. PATCH is registered with the ISRCTN registry, ISRCTN70406718; the study is ongoing and adaptive.
Findings
Between Aug 14, 2007, and July 30, 2019, 1694 men were randomly allocated either LHRHa (n=790) or tE2 patches (n=904). Overall, median follow-up was 3·9 (IQR 2·4-7·0) years. Respective castration rates at 1 month and 3 months were 65% and 93% among patients assigned LHRHa and 83% and 93% among those allocated tE2. 157 events from 145 men met predefined cardiovascular criteria, with a further ten sudden deaths with no post-mortem report (total 167 events in 153 men). 26 (2%) of 1694 patients had fatal cardiovascular events, 15 (2%) of 790 assigned LHRHa and 11 (1%) of 904 allocated tE2. The time to first cardiovascular event did not differ between treatments (hazard ratio 1·11, 95% CI 0·80-1·53; p=0·54 [including sudden deaths without post-mortem report]; 1·20, 0·86-1·68; p=0·29 [confirmed group only]). 30 (34%) of 89 cardiovascular events in patients assigned tE2 occurred more than 3 months after tE2 was stopped or changed to LHRHa. The most frequent adverse events were gynaecomastia (all grades), with 279 (38%) events in 730 patients who received LHRHa versus 690 (86%) in 807 patients who received tE2 (p<0·0001) and hot flushes (all grades) in 628 (86%) of those who received LHRHa versus 280 (35%) who received tE2 (p<0·0001).
Interpretation
Long-term data comparing tE2 patches with LHRHa show no evidence of a difference between treatments in cardiovascular mortality or morbidity. Oestrogens administered transdermally should be reconsidered for androgen suppression in the management of prostate cancer.
Funding
Cancer Research UK, and Medical Research Council Clinical Trials Unit at University College London.

Copyright © 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 12 Feb 2021; 397:581-591
Langley RE, Gilbert DC, Duong T, Clarke NW, ... Kynaston H, Parmar M
Lancet: 12 Feb 2021; 397:581-591 | PMID: 33581820
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Impact:
Abstract

Delivering health interventions to women, children, and adolescents in conflict settings: what have we learned from ten country case studies?

Singh NS, Ataullahjan A, Ndiaye K, Das JK, ... Blanchet K, BRANCH Consortium Steering Committee
Armed conflict disproportionately affects the morbidity, mortality, and wellbeing of women, newborns, children, and adolescents. Our study presents insights from a collection of ten country case studies aiming to assess the provision of sexual, reproductive, maternal, newborn, child, and adolescent health and nutrition interventions in ten conflict-affected settings in Afghanistan, Colombia, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Mali, Nigeria, Pakistan, Somalia, South Sudan, Syria, and Yemen. We found that despite large variations in contexts and decision making processes, antenatal care, basic emergency obstetric and newborn care, comprehensive emergency obstetric and newborn care, immunisation, treatment of common childhood illnesses, infant and young child feeding, and malnutrition treatment and screening were prioritised in these ten conflict settings. Many lifesaving women\'s and children\'s health (WCH) services, including the majority of reproductive, newborn, and adolescent health services, are not reported as being delivered in the ten conflict settings, and interventions to address stillbirths are absent. International donors remain the primary drivers of influencing the what, where, and how of implementing WCH interventions. Interpretation of WCH outcomes in conflict settings are particularly context-dependent given the myriad of complex factors that constitute conflict and their interactions. Moreover, the comprehensiveness and quality of data remain limited in conflict settings. The dynamic nature of modern conflict and the expanding role of non-state armed groups in large geographic areas pose new challenges to delivering WCH services. However, the humanitarian system is creative and pluralistic and has developed some novel solutions to bring lifesaving WCH services closer to populations using new modes of delivery. These solutions, when rigorously evaluated, can represent concrete response to current implementation challenges to modern armed conflicts.

Copyright © 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 05 Feb 2021; 397:533-542
Singh NS, Ataullahjan A, Ndiaye K, Das JK, ... Blanchet K, BRANCH Consortium Steering Committee
Lancet: 05 Feb 2021; 397:533-542 | PMID: 33503459
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Impact:
Abstract

Delivering health and nutrition interventions for women and children in different conflict contexts: a framework for decision making on what, when, and how.

Gaffey MF, Waldman RJ, Blanchet K, Amsalu R, ... Bhutta ZA, BRANCH Consortium Steering Committee
Existing global guidance for addressing women\'s and children\'s health and nutrition in humanitarian crises is not sufficiently contextualised for conflict settings specifically, reflecting the still-limited evidence that is available from such settings. As a preliminary step towards filling this guidance gap, we propose a conflict-specific framework that aims to guide decision makers focused on the health and nutrition of women and children affected by conflict to prioritise interventions that would address the major causes of mortality and morbidity among women and children in their particular settings and that could also be feasibly delivered in those settings. Assessing local needs, identifying relevant interventions from among those already recommended for humanitarian settings or universally, and assessing the contextual feasibility of delivery for each candidate intervention are key steps in the framework. We illustratively apply the proposed decision making framework to show what a framework-guided selection of priority interventions might look like in three hypothetical conflict contexts that differ in terms of levels of insecurity and patterns of population displacement. In doing so, we aim to catalyse further iteration and eventual field-testing of such a decision making framework by local, national, and international organisations and agencies involved in the humanitarian health response for women and children affected by conflict.

Copyright © 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 05 Feb 2021; 397:543-554
Gaffey MF, Waldman RJ, Blanchet K, Amsalu R, ... Bhutta ZA, BRANCH Consortium Steering Committee
Lancet: 05 Feb 2021; 397:543-554 | PMID: 33503457
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Impact:
Abstract

The effects of armed conflict on the health of women and children.

Bendavid E, Boerma T, Akseer N, Langer A, ... Bhutta ZA, BRANCH Consortium Steering Committee
Women and children bear substantial morbidity and mortality as a result of armed conflicts. This Series paper focuses on the direct (due to violence) and indirect health effects of armed conflict on women and children (including adolescents) worldwide. We estimate that nearly 36 million children and 16 million women were displaced in 2017, on the basis of international databases of refugees and internally displaced populations. From geospatial analyses we estimate that the number of non-displaced women and children living dangerously close to armed conflict (within 50 km) increased from 185 million women and 250 million children in 2000, to 265 million women and 368 million children in 2017. Women\'s and children\'s mortality risk from non-violent causes increases substantially in response to nearby conflict, with more intense and more chronic conflicts leading to greater mortality increases. More than 10 million deaths in children younger than 5 years can be attributed to conflict between 1995 and 2015 globally. Women of reproductive ages living near high intensity conflicts have three times higher mortality than do women in peaceful settings. Current research provides fragmentary evidence about how armed conflict indirectly affects the survival chances of women and children through malnutrition, physical injuries, infectious diseases, poor mental health, and poor sexual and reproductive health, but major systematic evidence is sparse, hampering the design and implementation of essential interventions for mitigating the harms of armed conflicts.

Copyright © 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 05 Feb 2021; 397:522-532
Bendavid E, Boerma T, Akseer N, Langer A, ... Bhutta ZA, BRANCH Consortium Steering Committee
Lancet: 05 Feb 2021; 397:522-532 | PMID: 33503456
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Impact:
Abstract

Posaconazole versus voriconazole for primary treatment of invasive aspergillosis: a phase 3, randomised, controlled, non-inferiority trial.

Maertens JA, Rahav G, Lee DG, Ponce-de-León A, ... Waskin H, study investigators
Background
Voriconazole has been recommended as primary treatment for patients with invasive aspergillosis. Intravenous and tablet formulations of posaconazole that have improved systemic absorption could be an effective alternative to voriconazole. We aimed to assess non-inferiority of posaconazole to voriconazole for the primary treatment of invasive aspergillosis.
Methods
We did a randomised, prospective, double-blind, double-dummy, controlled trial comparing posaconazole (intravenous or oral posaconazole 300 mg twice on day 1, followed by 300 mg once a day for days 2-84) with voriconazole (6 mg/kg intravenous or 300 mg oral twice on day 1 followed by 4 mg/kg intravenously or 200 mg orally twice a day for days 2-84) for 12 weeks or less in the primary treatment of invasive aspergillosis. Participants were from 91 study sites in 26 countries, were aged 13 years or older, weighed at least 40 kg, and met criteria for proven, probable, or possible fungal disease. Participants were randomly assigned (1:1) via a computer-generated randomisation schedule with stratification by risk status. The primary endpoint was cumulative all-cause mortality up until day 42 in the intention-to-treat (ITT) population (defined as randomly assigned participants who received ≥1 dose of study drug), with a 10% non-inferiority margin. The ITT population was also evaluated for safety. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT01782131, and EudraCT, 2011-003938-14.
Findings
Between Oct 25, 2013, and Sept 10, 2019, of 653 individuals assessed for eligibility, 575 ITT participants were randomly assigned and received one or more doses of study drug (n=288 [50%] posaconazole, n=287 [50%] voriconazole). Mortality up until day 42 was 15% (44 of 288) in the posaconazole group and 21% (59 of 287) in the voriconazole group (treatment difference -5·3% [95% CI -11·6 to 1·0]; p<0·0001). Mortality up until day 42 in the full-analysis-set subpopulation (ITT participants with proven or probable invasive aspergillosis) supported this conclusion: 31 (19%) of 163 participants in the posaconazole group and 32 (19%) of 171 participants in the voriconazole group (treatment difference 0·3% [95% CI -8·2 to 8·8]). The most frequently reported treatment-related adverse events (incidence >3%) were increased aspartate aminotransferase (AST) or alanine aminotransferase (ALT), nausea, hypokalaemia, and vomiting in the posaconazole group and increased ALT, AST, or alkaline phosphatase, hallucination, increased γ-glutamyltransferase peptidase, nausea, and blurred vision in the voriconazole group. The overall incidence of treatment-related adverse event rates in the ITT population was 30% for posaconazole and 40% for voriconazole (treatment difference -10·2% [95% CI -17·9 to -2·4]).
Interpretation
Posaconazole was non-inferior to voriconazole for all-cause mortality up until day 42 in participants with invasive aspergillosis. Posaconazole was well tolerated, and participants had fewer treatment-related adverse events than in the voriconazole group. This study supports the use of posaconazole as a first-line treatment for the condition.
Funding
Merck Sharp & Dohme, a subsidiary of Merck & Co, Inc.

Copyright © 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 05 Feb 2021; 397:499-509
Maertens JA, Rahav G, Lee DG, Ponce-de-León A, ... Waskin H, study investigators
Lancet: 05 Feb 2021; 397:499-509 | PMID: 33549194
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Impact:
Abstract

Bimekizumab versus ustekinumab for the treatment of moderate to severe plaque psoriasis (BE VIVID): efficacy and safety from a 52-week, multicentre, double-blind, active comparator and placebo controlled phase 3 trial.

Reich K, Papp KA, Blauvelt A, Langley RG, ... Vanvoorden V, Lebwohl M
Background
There is an unmet need for a treatment for psoriasis that results in complete skin clearance with a reliably quick response. Bimekizumab is a monoclonal IgG1 antibody that selectively inhibits interleukin (IL)-17F in addition to IL-17A. We aimed to compare the efficacy and safety of bimekizumab with placebo and ustekinumab in patients with moderate to severe plaque psoriasis over 52 weeks.
Methods
BE VIVID was a multicentre, randomised, double-blind, active comparator and placebo controlled phase 3 trial done across 105 sites (clinics, hospitals, research units, and private practices) in 11 countries in Asia, Australia, Europe, and North America. Adults aged 18 years or older with moderate to severe plaque psoriasis (Psoriasis Area and Severity Index [PASI] score ≥12, ≥10% body surface area affected by psoriasis, and Investigator\'s Global Assessment [IGA] score ≥3 on a five point scale) were included. Randomisation was stratified by geographical region and previous exposure to biologics; patients, investigators, and sponsors were masked to treatment assignment. Patients were randomly assigned (4:2:1) using an interactive response technology to bimekizumab 320 mg every 4 weeks, ustekinumab 45 mg or 90 mg (baseline weight-dependent dosing) at weeks 0 and 4, then every 12 weeks, or placebo every 4 weeks. At week 16, patients receiving placebo switched to bimekizumab 320 mg every 4 weeks. All study treatments were administered as two subcutaneous injections. Coprimary endpoints were the proportion of patients with 90% improvement in the PASI (PASI90) and the proportion of patients with an IGA response of clear or almost clear (score 0 or 1) at week 16 (non-responder imputation). Efficacy analyses included the intention-to-treat population; safety analysis included patients who received at least one dose of study treatment. This trial was registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03370133 (completed).
Findings
Between Dec 6, 2017, and Dec 13, 2019, 735 patients were screened and 567 were enrolled and randomly assigned (bimekizumab 320 mg every 4 weeks n=321, ustekinumab 45 mg or 90 mg every 12 weeks n=163, placebo n=83). At week 16, 273 (85%) of 321 patients in the bimekizumab group had PASI90 versus 81 (50%) of 163 in the ustekinumab group (risk difference 35 [95% CI 27-43]; p<0·0001) and four (5%) of 83 in the placebo group (risk difference 80 [74-86]; p<0·0001). At week 16, 270 (84%) patients in the bimekizumab group had an IGA response versus 87 (53%) in the ustekinumab group (risk difference 30 [95% CI 22-39]; p<0·0001) and four (5%) in the placebo group (risk difference 79 [73-85]; p<0·0001). Over 52 weeks, serious treatment-emergent adverse events were reported in 24 (6%) of 395 patients in the bimekizumab group (including those who switched from placebo at week 16) and 13 (8%) of 163 in the ustekinumab group.
Interpretation
Bimekizumab was more efficacious than ustekinumab and placebo in the treatment of moderate to severe plaque psoriasis. The bimekizumab safety profile was consistent with that observed in previous studies.
Funding
UCB Pharma.

Copyright © 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 05 Feb 2021; 397:487-498
Reich K, Papp KA, Blauvelt A, Langley RG, ... Vanvoorden V, Lebwohl M
Lancet: 05 Feb 2021; 397:487-498 | PMID: 33549193
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Impact:
Abstract

Bimekizumab efficacy and safety in moderate to severe plaque psoriasis (BE READY): a multicentre, double-blind, placebo-controlled, randomised withdrawal phase 3 trial.

Gordon KB, Foley P, Krueger JG, Pinter A, ... Cioffi C, Blauvelt A
Background
Bimekizumab is a monoclonal IgG1 antibody that selectively inhibits interleukin (IL)-17F in addition to IL-17A. This study investigated the efficacy and safety of bimekizumab in patients with moderate to severe plaque psoriasis, the effects of treatment withdrawal, and two maintenance dosing schedules over 56 weeks.
Methods
BE READY was a phase 3, multicentre, randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial done at 77 sites (hospitals, clinics, private doctor\'s practices, and dedicated clinical research centres) in nine countries across Asia, Australia, Europe, and North America. Adult patients aged 18 years or older with moderate to severe plaque psoriasis were stratified by region and previous biologic exposure, and randomly assigned (4:1) to receive bimekizumab 320 mg every 4 weeks or placebo every 4 weeks by use of interactive response technology. Coprimary endpoints were the proportion of patients achieving 90% or greater improvement from baseline in the Psoriasis Area Severity Index (PASI90) and the proportion of patients achieving a score of 0 (clear) or 1 (almost clear) on the five-point Investigator\'s Global Assessment (IGA) scale at week 16 (non-responder imputation). Bimekizumab-treated patients achieving PASI90 at week 16 were re-allocated (1:1:1) to receive bimekizumab 320 mg every 4 weeks, every 8 weeks, or placebo for weeks 16-56. Efficacy analyses were done in the intention-to-treat population; the safety analysis set comprised all patients who received at least one dose of study treatment. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT03410992), and is now completed.
Findings
Between Feb 5, 2018, and Jan 7, 2020, 435 patients were randomly assigned to receive either bimekizumab 320 mg every 4 weeks (n=349) or placebo every 4 weeks (n=86). Coprimary endpoints were met: at week 16, 317 (91%) of 349 patients receiving bimekizumab 320 mg every 4 weeks achieved PASI90, compared with one (1%) of 86 patients receiving placebo (risk difference 89·8 [95% CI 86·1-93·4]; p<0·0001); and 323 (93%) of 349 patients receiving bimekizumab 320 mg every 4 weeks achieved an IGA score of 0 or 1 versus one (1%) of 86 patients receiving placebo (risk difference 91·5 [95% CI 88·0-94·9]; p<0·0001). Responses were maintained through to week 56 with bimekizumab 320 mg every 8 weeks and every 4 weeks. Treatment-emergent adverse events in the initial treatment period (up to week 16) were reported in 213 (61%) of 349 patients receiving bimekizumab 320 mg every 4 weeks and 35 (41%) of 86 patients receiving placebo every 4 weeks. From week 16 to week 56, treatment-emergent adverse events were reported in 78 (74%) of 106 patients receiving bimekizumab 320 mg every 4 weeks, 77 (77%) of 100 patients receiving bimekizumab 320 mg every 8 weeks, and 72 (69%) of 105 patients receiving placebo.
Interpretation
Bimekizumab showed high levels of response, which were durable over 56 weeks, with both maintenance dosing schedules (every 4 weeks and every 8 weeks). Moreover, bimekizumab was well tolerated, with no unexpected safety findings. Data presented here further support the therapeutic value of bimekizumab and inhibition of IL-17F in addition to IL-17A for patients with moderate to severe plaque psoriasis.
Funding
UCB Pharma.

Copyright © 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 05 Feb 2021; 397:475-486
Gordon KB, Foley P, Krueger JG, Pinter A, ... Cioffi C, Blauvelt A
Lancet: 05 Feb 2021; 397:475-486 | PMID: 33549192
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Impact:
Abstract

First-line nivolumab plus ipilimumab in unresectable malignant pleural mesothelioma (CheckMate 743): a multicentre, randomised, open-label, phase 3 trial.

Baas P, Scherpereel A, Nowak AK, Fujimoto N, ... Baudelet C, Zalcman G
Background
Approved systemic treatments for malignant pleural mesothelioma (MPM) have been limited to chemotherapy regimens that have moderate survival benefit with poor outcomes. Nivolumab plus ipilimumab has shown clinical benefit in other tumour types, including first-line non-small-cell lung cancer. We hypothesised that this regimen would improve overall survival in MPM.
Methods
This open-label, randomised, phase 3 study (CheckMate 743) was run at 103 hospitals across 21 countries. Eligible individuals were aged 18 years and older, with previously untreated, histologically confirmed unresectable MPM, and an Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status of 0 or 1. Eligible participants were randomly assigned (1:1) to nivolumab (3 mg/kg intravenously once every 2 weeks) plus ipilimumab (1 mg/kg intravenously once every 6 weeks) for up to 2 years, or platinum plus pemetrexed chemotherapy (pemetrexed [500 mg/m2 intravenously] plus cisplatin [75 mg/m2 intravenously] or carboplatin [area under the concentration-time curve 5 mg/mL per min intravenously]) once every 3 weeks for up to six cycles. The primary endpoint was overall survival among all participants randomly assigned to treatment, and safety was assessed in all participants who received at least one dose of study treatment. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02899299, and is closed to accrual.
Findings
Between Nov 29, 2016, and April 28, 2018, 713 patients were enrolled, of whom 605 were randomly assigned to either nivolumab plus ipilimumab (n=303) or chemotherapy (n=302). 467 (77%) of 605 participants were male and median age was 69 years (IQR 64-75). At the prespecified interim analysis (database lock April 3, 2020; median follow-up of 29·7 months [IQR 26·7-32·9]), nivolumab plus ipilimumab significantly extended overall survival versus chemotherapy (median overall survival 18·1 months [95% CI 16·8-21·4] vs 14·1 months [12·4-16·2]; hazard ratio 0·74 [96·6% CI 0·60-0·91]; p=0·0020). 2-year overall survival rates were 41% (95% CI 35·1-46·5) in the nivolumab plus ipilimumab group and 27% (21·9-32·4) in the chemotherapy group. Grade 3-4 treatment-related adverse events were reported in 91 (30%) of 300 patients treated with nivolumab plus ipilimumab and 91 (32%) of 284 treated with chemotherapy. Three (1%) treatment-related deaths occurred in the nivolumab plus ipilimumab group (pneumonitis, encephalitis, and heart failure) and one (<1%) in the chemotherapy group (myelosuppression).
Interpretation
Nivolumab plus ipilimumab provided significant and clinically meaningful improvements in overall survival versus standard-of-care chemotherapy, supporting the use of this first-in-class regimen that has been approved in the USA as of October, 2020, for previously untreated unresectable MPM.
Funding
Bristol Myers Squibb.

Copyright © 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 29 Jan 2021; 397:375-386
Baas P, Scherpereel A, Nowak AK, Fujimoto N, ... Baudelet C, Zalcman G
Lancet: 29 Jan 2021; 397:375-386 | PMID: 33485464
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Impact:
Abstract

Global variation in postoperative mortality and complications after cancer surgery: a multicentre, prospective cohort study in 82 countries.

GlobalSurg Collaborative and National Institute for Health Research Global Health Research Unit on Global Surgery
Background
80% of individuals with cancer will require a surgical procedure, yet little comparative data exist on early outcomes in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). We compared postoperative outcomes in breast, colorectal, and gastric cancer surgery in hospitals worldwide, focusing on the effect of disease stage and complications on postoperative mortality.
Methods
This was a multicentre, international prospective cohort study of consecutive adult patients undergoing surgery for primary breast, colorectal, or gastric cancer requiring a skin incision done under general or neuraxial anaesthesia. The primary outcome was death or major complication within 30 days of surgery. Multilevel logistic regression determined relationships within three-level nested models of patients within hospitals and countries. Hospital-level infrastructure effects were explored with three-way mediation analyses. This study was registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03471494.
Findings
Between April 1, 2018, and Jan 31, 2019, we enrolled 15 958 patients from 428 hospitals in 82 countries (high income 9106 patients, 31 countries; upper-middle income 2721 patients, 23 countries; or lower-middle income 4131 patients, 28 countries). Patients in LMICs presented with more advanced disease compared with patients in high-income countries. 30-day mortality was higher for gastric cancer in low-income or lower-middle-income countries (adjusted odds ratio 3·72, 95% CI 1·70-8·16) and for colorectal cancer in low-income or lower-middle-income countries (4·59, 2·39-8·80) and upper-middle-income countries (2·06, 1·11-3·83). No difference in 30-day mortality was seen in breast cancer. The proportion of patients who died after a major complication was greatest in low-income or lower-middle-income countries (6·15, 3·26-11·59) and upper-middle-income countries (3·89, 2·08-7·29). Postoperative death after complications was partly explained by patient factors (60%) and partly by hospital or country (40%). The absence of consistently available postoperative care facilities was associated with seven to 10 more deaths per 100 major complications in LMICs. Cancer stage alone explained little of the early variation in mortality or postoperative complications.
Interpretation
Higher levels of mortality after cancer surgery in LMICs was not fully explained by later presentation of disease. The capacity to rescue patients from surgical complications is a tangible opportunity for meaningful intervention. Early death after cancer surgery might be reduced by policies focusing on strengthening perioperative care systems to detect and intervene in common complications.
Funding
National Institute for Health Research Global Health Research Unit.

Copyright © 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 29 Jan 2021; 397:387-397
GlobalSurg Collaborative and National Institute for Health Research Global Health Research Unit on Global Surgery
Lancet: 29 Jan 2021; 397:387-397 | PMID: 33485461
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Impact:
Abstract

Biliary tract cancer.

Valle JW, Kelley RK, Nervi B, Oh DY, Zhu AX
Biliary tract cancers, including intrahepatic, perihilar, and distal cholangiocarcinoma as well as gallbladder cancer, are low-incidence malignancies in most high-income countries, but represent a major health problem in endemic areas; moreover, the incidence of intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma is rising globally. Surgery is the cornerstone of cure; the optimal approach depends on the anatomical site of the primary tumour and the best outcomes are achieved through management by specialist multidisciplinary teams. Unfortunately, most patients present with locally advanced or metastatic disease. Most studies in advanced disease have pooled the various subtypes of biliary tract cancer by necessity to achieve adequate sample sizes; however, differences in epidemiology, clinical presentation, natural history, surgical therapy, response to treatment, and prognosis have long been recognised. Additionally, the identification of distinct patient subgroups harbouring unique molecular alterations with corresponding targeted therapies (such as isocitrate dehydrogenase-1 mutations and fibroblast growth factor receptor-2 fusions in intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma, among others) is changing the treatment paradigm. In this Seminar we present an update of the causes, diagnosis, molecular classification, and treatment of biliary tract cancer.

Copyright © 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 29 Jan 2021; 397:428-444
Valle JW, Kelley RK, Nervi B, Oh DY, Zhu AX
Lancet: 29 Jan 2021; 397:428-444 | PMID: 33516341
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Impact:
Abstract

Multiple myeloma.

van de Donk NWCJ, Pawlyn C, Yong KL
Multiple myeloma is the second most common haematological malignancy in high-income countries, and typically starts as asymptomatic precursor conditions-either monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance or smouldering multiple myeloma-in which initiating genetic abnormalities, such as hyperdiploidy and translocations involving the immunoglobulin heavy chain, are already present. The introduction of immunomodulatory drugs, proteasome inhibitors, and CD38-targeting antibodies has extended survival, but ultimately the majority of patients will die from their disease, and some from treatment-related complications. Disease progression and subsequent relapses are characterised by subclonal evolution and increasingly resistant disease. Patients with multiple myeloma usually have hypercalcaemia, renal failure, anaemia, or osteolytic bone lesions-and a detailed diagnostic investigation is needed to differentiate between symptomatic multiple myeloma that requires treatment, and precursor states. Risk stratification using both patient-specific (eg, performance status) and disease-specific (eg, presence of high-risk cytogenetic abnormalities) is important for prognosis and to define the best treatment strategy. Current research strategies include the use of minimal residual disease assays to guide therapy, refining immunotherapeutic approaches, and intercepting disease early in smouldering multiple myeloma.

Copyright © 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 29 Jan 2021; 397:410-427
van de Donk NWCJ, Pawlyn C, Yong KL
Lancet: 29 Jan 2021; 397:410-427 | PMID: 33516340
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Impact:
Abstract

Estimating the health impact of vaccination against ten pathogens in 98 low-income and middle-income countries from 2000 to 2030: a modelling study.

Li X, Mukandavire C, Cucunubá ZM, Echeverria Londono S, ... Garske T, Vaccine Impact Modelling Consortium
Background
The past two decades have seen expansion of childhood vaccination programmes in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). We quantify the health impact of these programmes by estimating the deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) averted by vaccination against ten pathogens in 98 LMICs between 2000 and 2030.
Methods
16 independent research groups provided model-based disease burden estimates under a range of vaccination coverage scenarios for ten pathogens: hepatitis B virus, Haemophilus influenzae type B, human papillomavirus, Japanese encephalitis, measles, Neisseria meningitidis serogroup A, Streptococcus pneumoniae, rotavirus, rubella, and yellow fever. Using standardised demographic data and vaccine coverage, the impact of vaccination programmes was determined by comparing model estimates from a no-vaccination counterfactual scenario with those from a reported and projected vaccination scenario. We present deaths and DALYs averted between 2000 and 2030 by calendar year and by annual birth cohort.
Findings
We estimate that vaccination of the ten selected pathogens will have averted 69 million (95% credible interval 52-88) deaths between 2000 and 2030, of which 37 million (30-48) were averted between 2000 and 2019. From 2000 to 2019, this represents a 45% (36-58) reduction in deaths compared with the counterfactual scenario of no vaccination. Most of this impact is concentrated in a reduction in mortality among children younger than 5 years (57% reduction [52-66]), most notably from measles. Over the lifetime of birth cohorts born between 2000 and 2030, we predict that 120 million (93-150) deaths will be averted by vaccination, of which 58 million (39-76) are due to measles vaccination and 38 million (25-52) are due to hepatitis B vaccination. We estimate that increases in vaccine coverage and introductions of additional vaccines will result in a 72% (59-81) reduction in lifetime mortality in the 2019 birth cohort.
Interpretation
Increases in vaccine coverage and the introduction of new vaccines into LMICs have had a major impact in reducing mortality. These public health gains are predicted to increase in coming decades if progress in increasing coverage is sustained.
Funding
Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Copyright © 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 29 Jan 2021; 397:398-408
Li X, Mukandavire C, Cucunubá ZM, Echeverria Londono S, ... Garske T, Vaccine Impact Modelling Consortium
Lancet: 29 Jan 2021; 397:398-408 | PMID: 33516338
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Impact:
Abstract

Guillain-Barré syndrome.

Shahrizaila N, Lehmann HC, Kuwabara S
Guillain-Barré syndrome is the most common cause of acute flaccid paralysis worldwide. Most patients present with an antecedent illness, most commonly upper respiratory tract infection, before the onset of progressive motor weakness. Several microorganisms have been associated with Guillain-Barré syndrome, most notably Campylobacter jejuni, Zika virus, and in 2020, the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2. In C jejuni-related Guillain-Barré syndrome, there is good evidence to support an autoantibody-mediated immune process that is triggered by molecular mimicry between structural components of peripheral nerves and the microorganism. Making a diagnosis of so-called classical Guillain-Barré syndrome is straightforward; however, the existing diagnostic criteria have limitations and can result in some variants of the syndrome being missed. Most patients with Guillain-Barré syndrome do well with immunotherapy, but a substantial proportion are left with disability, and death can occur. Results from the International Guillain-Barré Syndrome Outcome Study suggest that geographical variations exist in Guillain-Barré syndrome, including insufficient access to immunotherapy in low-income countries. There is a need to provide improved access to treatment for all patients with Guillain-Barré syndrome, and to develop effective disease-modifying therapies that can limit the extent of nerve injury. Clinical trials are currently underway to investigate some of the potential therapeutic candidates, including complement inhibitors, which, together with emerging data from large international collaborative studies on the syndrome, will contribute substantially to understanding the many facets of this disease.

Copyright © 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 26 Jan 2021; 397:1214-1228
Shahrizaila N, Lehmann HC, Kuwabara S
Lancet: 26 Jan 2021; 397:1214-1228 | PMID: 33647239
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Impact:
Abstract

Urgent lessons from COVID 19: why the world needs a standing, coordinated system and sustainable financing for global research and development.

Lurie N, Keusch GT, Dzau VJ
The research and development (R&D) ecosystem has evolved over the past decade to include pandemic infectious diseases, building on experience from multiple recent outbreaks. Outcomes of this evolution have been particularly evident during the COVID-19 pandemic with accelerated development of vaccines and monoclonal antibodies, as well as novel clinical trial designs. These products were developed, trialled, manufactured, and authorised for use in several countries within a year of the pandemic\'s onset. Many gaps remain, however, that must be bridged to establish a truly efficient and effective end-to-end R&D preparedness and response ecosystem. Foremost among them is a global financing system. In addition, important changes are required for multiple aspects of enabling sciences and product development. For each of these elements we identify priorities for improved and faster functionality. There will be no better time than now to seriously address these needs, however difficult, as the ravages of COVID-19 continue to accelerate with devastating health, social, and economic consequences for the entire community of nations.

Copyright © 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 26 Jan 2021; 397:1229-1236
Lurie N, Keusch GT, Dzau VJ
Lancet: 26 Jan 2021; 397:1229-1236 | PMID: 33711296
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Impact:
Abstract

Assessment of protection against reinfection with SARS-CoV-2 among 4 million PCR-tested individuals in Denmark in 2020: a population-level observational study.

Hansen CH, Michlmayr D, Gubbels SM, Mølbak K, Ethelberg S
Background
The degree to which infection with SARS-CoV-2 confers protection towards subsequent reinfection is not well described. In 2020, as part of Denmark\'s extensive, free-of-charge PCR-testing strategy, approximately 4 million individuals (69% of the population) underwent 10·6 million tests. Using these national PCR-test data from 2020, we estimated protection towards repeat infection with SARS-CoV-2.
Methods
In this population-level observational study, we collected individual-level data on patients who had been tested in Denmark in 2020 from the Danish Microbiology Database and analysed infection rates during the second surge of the COVID-19 epidemic, from Sept 1 to Dec 31, 2020, by comparison of infection rates between individuals with positive and negative PCR tests during the first surge (March to May, 2020). For the main analysis, we excluded people who tested positive for the first time between the two surges and those who died before the second surge. We did an alternative cohort analysis, in which we compared infection rates throughout the year between those with and without a previous confirmed infection at least 3 months earlier, irrespective of date. We also investigated whether differences were found by age group, sex, and time since infection in the alternative cohort analysis. We calculated rate ratios (RRs) adjusted for potential confounders and estimated protection against repeat infection as 1 - RR.
Findings
During the first surge (ie, before June, 2020), 533 381 people were tested, of whom 11 727 (2·20%) were PCR positive, and 525 339 were eligible for follow-up in the second surge, of whom 11 068 (2·11%) had tested positive during the first surge. Among eligible PCR-positive individuals from the first surge of the epidemic, 72 (0·65% [95% CI 0·51-0·82]) tested positive again during the second surge compared with 16 819 (3·27% [3·22-3·32]) of 514 271 who tested negative during the first surge (adjusted RR 0·195 [95% CI 0·155-0·246]). Protection against repeat infection was 80·5% (95% CI 75·4-84·5). The alternative cohort analysis gave similar estimates (adjusted RR 0·212 [0·179-0·251], estimated protection 78·8% [74·9-82·1]). In the alternative cohort analysis, among those aged 65 years and older, observed protection against repeat infection was 47·1% (95% CI 24·7-62·8). We found no difference in estimated protection against repeat infection by sex (male 78·4% [72·1-83·2] vs female 79·1% [73·9-83·3]) or evidence of waning protection over time (3-6 months of follow-up 79·3% [74·4-83·3] vs ≥7 months of follow-up 77·7% [70·9-82·9]).
Interpretation
Our findings could inform decisions on which groups should be vaccinated and advocate for vaccination of previously infected individuals because natural protection, especially among older people, cannot be relied on.
Funding
None.

Copyright © 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 26 Jan 2021; 397:1204-1212
Hansen CH, Michlmayr D, Gubbels SM, Mølbak K, Ethelberg S
Lancet: 26 Jan 2021; 397:1204-1212 | PMID: 33743221
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Impact:
Abstract

Male infertility.

Agarwal A, Baskaran S, Parekh N, Cho CL, ... Panner Selvam MK, Shah R
It is estimated that infertility affects 8-12% of couples globally, with a male factor being a primary or contributing cause in approximately 50% of couples. Causes of male subfertility vary highly, but can be related to congenital, acquired, or idiopathic factors that impair spermatogenesis. Many health conditions can affect male fertility, which underscores the need for a thorough evaluation of patients to identify treatable or reversible lifestyle factors or medical conditions. Although semen analysis remains the cornerstone for evaluating male infertility, advanced diagnostic tests to investigate sperm quality and function have been developed to improve diagnosis and management. The use of assisted reproductive techniques has also substantially improved the ability of couples with infertility to have biological children. This Seminar aims to provide a comprehensive overview of the assessment and management of men with infertility, along with current controversies and future endeavours.

Copyright © 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 22 Jan 2021; 397:319-333
Agarwal A, Baskaran S, Parekh N, Cho CL, ... Panner Selvam MK, Shah R
Lancet: 22 Jan 2021; 397:319-333 | PMID: 33308486
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Impact:
Abstract

Acute flaccid myelitis: cause, diagnosis, and management.

Murphy OC, Messacar K, Benson L, Bove R, ... Pardo CA, AFM working group
Acute flaccid myelitis (AFM) is a disabling, polio-like illness mainly affecting children. Outbreaks of AFM have occurred across multiple global regions since 2012, and the disease appears to be caused by non-polio enterovirus infection, posing a major public health challenge. The clinical presentation of flaccid and often profound muscle weakness (which can invoke respiratory failure and other critical complications) can mimic several other acute neurological illnesses. There is no single sensitive and specific test for AFM, and the diagnosis relies on identification of several important clinical, neuroimaging, and cerebrospinal fluid characteristics. Following the acute phase of AFM, patients typically have substantial residual disability and unique long-term rehabilitation needs. In this Review we describe the epidemiology, clinical features, course, and outcomes of AFM to help to guide diagnosis, management, and rehabilitation. Future research directions include further studies evaluating host and pathogen factors, including investigations into genetic, viral, and immunological features of affected patients, host-virus interactions, and investigations of targeted therapeutic approaches to improve the long-term outcomes in this population.

Copyright © 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 22 Jan 2021; 397:334-346
Murphy OC, Messacar K, Benson L, Bove R, ... Pardo CA, AFM working group
Lancet: 22 Jan 2021; 397:334-346 | PMID: 33357469
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Impact:
Abstract

Rituximab versus tocilizumab in anti-TNF inadequate responder patients with rheumatoid arthritis (R4RA): 16-week outcomes of a stratified, biopsy-driven, multicentre, open-label, phase 4 randomised controlled trial.

Humby F, Durez P, Buch MH, Lewis MJ, ... Pitzalis C, R4RA collaborative group
Background
Although targeted biological treatments have transformed the outlook for patients with rheumatoid arthritis, 40% of patients show poor clinical response, which is mechanistically still unexplained. Because more than 50% of patients with rheumatoid arthritis have low or absent CD20 B cells-the target for rituximab-in the main disease tissue (joint synovium), we hypothesised that, in these patients, the IL-6 receptor inhibitor tocilizumab would be more effective. The aim of this trial was to compare the effect of tocilizumab with rituximab in patients with rheumatoid arthritis who had an inadequate response to anti-tumour necrosis factor (TNF) stratified for synovial B-cell status.
Methods
This study was a 48-week, biopsy-driven, multicentre, open-label, phase 4 randomised controlled trial (rituximab vs tocilizumab in anti-TNF inadequate responder patients with rheumatoid arthritis; R4RA) done in 19 centres across five European countries (the UK, Belgium, Italy, Portugal, and Spain). Patients aged 18 years or older who fulfilled the 2010 American College of Rheumatology and European League Against Rheumatism classification criteria for rheumatoid arthritis and were eligible for treatment with rituximab therapy according to UK National Institute for Health and Care Excellence guidelines were eligible for inclusion in the trial. To inform balanced stratification, following a baseline synovial biopsy, patients were classified histologically as B-cell poor or rich. Patients were then randomly assigned (1:1) centrally in block sizes of six and four to receive two 1000 mg rituximab infusions at an interval of 2 weeks (rituximab group) or 8 mg/kg tocilizumab infusions at 4-week intervals (tocilizumab group). To enhance the accuracy of the stratification of B-cell poor and B-cell rich patients, baseline synovial biopsies from all participants were subjected to RNA sequencing and reclassified by B-cell molecular signature. The study was powered to test the superiority of tocilizumab over rituximab in the B-cell poor population at 16 weeks. The primary endpoint was defined as a 50% improvement in Clinical Disease Activity Index (CDAI50%) from baseline. The trial is registered on the ISRCTN database, ISRCTN97443826, and EudraCT, 2012-002535-28.
Findings
Between Feb 28, 2013, and Jan 17, 2019, 164 patients were classified histologically and were randomly assigned to the rituximab group (83 [51%]) or the tocilizumab group (81 [49%]). In patients histologically classified as B-cell poor, there was no statistically significant difference in CDAI50% between the rituximab group (17 [45%] of 38 patients) and the tocilizumab group (23 [56%] of 41 patients; difference 11% [95% CI -11 to 33], p=0·31). However, in the synovial biopsies classified as B-cell poor with RNA sequencing the tocilizumab group had a significantly higher response rate compared with the rituximab group for CDAI50% (rituximab group 12 [36%] of 33 patients vs tocilizumab group 20 [63%] of 32 patients; difference 26% [2 to 50], p=0·035). Occurrence of adverse events (rituximab group 76 [70%] of 108 patients vs tocilizumab group 94 [80%] of 117 patients; difference 10% [-1 to 21) and serious adverse events (rituximab group 8 [7%] of 108 vs tocilizumab group 12 [10%] of 117; difference 3% [-5 to 10]) were not significantly different between treatment groups.
Interpretation
The results suggest that RNA sequencing-based stratification of rheumatoid arthritis synovial tissue showed stronger associations with clinical responses compared with histopathological classification. Additionally, for patients with low or absent B-cell lineage expression signature in synovial tissue tocilizumab is more effective than rituximab. Replication of the results and validation of the RNA sequencing-based classification in independent cohorts is required before making treatment recommendations for clinical practice.
Funding
Efficacy and Mechanism Evaluation programme from the UK National Institute for Health Research.

Copyright © 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 22 Jan 2021; 397:305-317
Humby F, Durez P, Buch MH, Lewis MJ, ... Pitzalis C, R4RA collaborative group
Lancet: 22 Jan 2021; 397:305-317 | PMID: 33485455
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Impact:
Abstract

Metabolic surgery versus conventional medical therapy in patients with type 2 diabetes: 10-year follow-up of an open-label, single-centre, randomised controlled trial.

Mingrone G, Panunzi S, De Gaetano A, Guidone C, ... Bornstein SR, Rubino F
Background
No data from randomised controlled trials of metabolic surgery for diabetes are available beyond 5 years of follow-up. We aimed to assess 10-year follow-up after surgery compared with medical therapy for the treatment of type 2 diabetes.
Methods
We did a 10-year follow-up study of an open-label, single-centre (tertiary hospital in Rome, Italy), randomised controlled trial, in which patients with type 2 diabetes (baseline duration >5 years; glycated haemoglobin [HbA1c] >7·0%, and body-mass index ≥35 kg/m2) were randomly assigned (1:1:1) to medical therapy, Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (RYGB), or biliopancreatic diversion (BPD) by a computerised system. The primary endpoint of the study was diabetes remission at 2 years (HbA1c <6·5% and fasting glycaemia <5·55 mmol/L without ongoing medication for at least 1 year). In the 10-year analysis, durability of diabetes remission was analysed by intention to treat (ITT). This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT00888836.
Findings
Between April 30, 2009, and Oct 31, 2011, of 72 patients assessed for eligibility, 60 were included. The 10-year follow-up rate was 95·0% (57 of 60). Of all patients who were surgically treated, 15 (37·5%) maintained diabetes remission throughout the 10-year period. Specifically, 10-year remission rates in the ITT population were 5·5% for medical therapy (95% CI 1·0-25·7; one participant went into remission after crossover to surgery), 50·0% for BPD (29·9-70·1), and 25·0% for RYGB (11·2-46·9; p=0·0082). 20 (58·8%) of 34 participants who were observed to be in remission at 2 years had a relapse of hyperglycaemia during the follow-up period (BPD 52·6% [95% CI 31·7-72·7]; RYGB 66·7% [41·7-84·8]). All individuals with relapse, however, maintained adequate glycaemic control at 10 years (mean HbA1c 6·7% [SD 0·2]). Participants in the RYGB and BPD groups had fewer diabetes-related complications than those in the medical therapy group (relative risk 0·07 [95% CI 0·01-0·48] for both comparisons). Serious adverse events occurred more frequently among participants in the BPD group (odds ratio [OR] for BPD vs medical therapy 2·7 [95% CI 1·3-5·6]; OR for RYGB vs medical therapy 0·7 [0·3-1·9]).
Interpretation
Metabolic surgery is more effective than conventional medical therapy in the long-term control of type 2 diabetes. Clinicians and policy makers should ensure that metabolic surgery is appropriately considered in the management of patients with obesity and type 2 diabetes.
Funding
Fondazione Policlinico Universitario Agostino Gemelli IRCCS.

Copyright © 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 22 Jan 2021; 397:293-304
Mingrone G, Panunzi S, De Gaetano A, Guidone C, ... Bornstein SR, Rubino F
Lancet: 22 Jan 2021; 397:293-304 | PMID: 33485454
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Impact:
Abstract

Adavosertib plus gemcitabine for platinum-resistant or platinum-refractory recurrent ovarian cancer: a double-blind, randomised, placebo-controlled, phase 2 trial.

Lheureux S, Cristea MC, Bruce JP, Garg S, ... Pugh TJ, Oza AM
Background
The Wee1 (WEE1hu) inhibitor adavosertib and gemcitabine have shown preclinical synergy and promising activity in early phase clinical trials. We aimed to determine the efficacy of this combination in patients with ovarian cancer.
Methods
In this double-blind, randomised, placebo-controlled, phase 2 trial, women with measurable recurrent platinum-resistant or platinum-refractory high-grade serous ovarian cancer were recruited from 11 academic centres in the USA and Canada. Women were eligible if they were aged 18 years or older, had an Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status of 0-2, a life expectancy of more than 3 months, and normal organ and marrow function. Women with ovarian cancer of non-high-grade serous histology were eligible for enrolment in a non-randomised exploratory cohort. Eligible participants with high-grade serous ovarian cancer were randomly assigned (2:1), using block randomisation (block size of three and six) and no stratification, to receive intravenous gemcitabine (1000 mg/m2 on days 1, 8, and 15) with either oral adavosertib (175 mg) or identical placebo once daily on days 1, 2, 8, 9, 15, and 16, in 28-day cycles until disease progression or unacceptable toxicity. Patients and the team caring for each patient were masked to treatment assignment. The primary endpoint was progression-free survival. The safety and efficacy analysis population comprised all patients who received at least one dose of treatment. The trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02151292, and is closed to accrual.
Findings
Between Sept 22, 2014, and May 30, 2018, 124 women were enrolled, of whom 99 had high-grade serous ovarian cancer and were randomly assigned to adavosertib plus gemcitabine (65 [66%]) or placebo plus gemcitabine (34 [34%]). 25 women with non-high-grade serous ovarian cancer were enrolled in the exploratory cohort. After randomisation, five patients with high-grade serous ovarian cancer were found to be ineligible (four in the experimental group and one in the control group) and did not receive treatment. Median age for all treated patients (n=119) was 62 years (IQR 54-67). Progression-free survival was longer with adavosertib plus gemcitabine (median 4·6 months [95% CI 3·6-6·4] with adavosertib plus gemcitabine vs 3·0 months [1·8-3·8] with placebo plus gemcitabine; hazard ratio 0·55 [95% CI 0·35-0·90]; log-rank p=0·015). The most frequent grade 3 or worse adverse events were haematological (neutropenia in 38 [62%] of 61 participants in the adavosertib plus gemcitabine group vs ten [30%] of 33 in the placebo plus gemcitabine group; thrombocytopenia in 19 [31%] of 61 in the adavosertib plus gemcitabine group vs two [6%] of 33 in the placebo plus gemcitabine group). There were no treatment-related deaths; two patients (one in each group in the high-grade serous ovarian cancer cohort) died while on study medication (from sepsis in the experimental group and from disease progression in the control group).
Interpretation
The observed clinical efficacy of a Wee1 inhibitor combined with gemcitabine supports ongoing assessment of DNA damage response drugs in high-grade serous ovarian cancer, a TP53-mutated tumour type with high replication stress. This therapeutic approach might be applicable to other tumour types with high replication stress; larger confirmatory studies are required.
Funding
US National Cancer Institute Cancer Therapy Evaluation Program, Ontario Institute for Cancer Research, US Department of Defense, Princess Margaret Cancer Foundation, and AstraZeneca.

Copyright © 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 22 Jan 2021; 397:281-292
Lheureux S, Cristea MC, Bruce JP, Garg S, ... Pugh TJ, Oza AM
Lancet: 22 Jan 2021; 397:281-292 | PMID: 33485453
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Abstract

Classical Hodgkin lymphoma.

Brice P, de Kerviler E, Friedberg JW
Classical Hodgkin lymphoma is one of the more frequent lymphomas and is generally considered a highly curable disease with standard first-line chemotherapy and radiotherapy in some cases. Despite these outstanding results, major problems remain unresolved. First, there are still patients who will not be cured with front-line regimens and, second, many patients who are cured of classical Hodgkin lymphoma continue to die prematurely due to the late toxic effects of their therapy. Because the median age of patients with classical Hodgkin lymphoma is in the mid-30s, the disease\'s impact on the number of years lost from productive life is remarkable. In recent years, the gold standard of chemotherapy (often combined with radiotherapy) has changed, with the approval of immunotherapy mostly in relapse settings.

Copyright © 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 21 Jan 2021; epub ahead of print
Brice P, de Kerviler E, Friedberg JW
Lancet: 21 Jan 2021; epub ahead of print | PMID: 33493434
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Abstract

Safety and immunogenicity of S-Trimer (SCB-2019), a protein subunit vaccine candidate for COVID-19 in healthy adults: a phase 1, randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial.

Richmond P, Hatchuel L, Dong M, Ma B, ... Liang J, Clemens R
Background
As part of the accelerated development of vaccines against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), we report a dose-finding and adjuvant justification study of SCB-2019, a protein subunit vaccine candidate containing a stabilised trimeric form of the spike (S)-protein (S-Trimer) combined with two different adjuvants.
Methods
Our study is a phase 1, randomised, double-blind placebo-controlled trial at a specialised clinical trials centre in Australia. We enrolled healthy adult volunteers in two age groups: younger adults (aged 18-54 years) and older adults (aged 55-75 years). Participants were randomly allocated either vaccine or placebo using a list prepared by the study funder. Participants were to receive two doses of SCB-2019 (either 3 μg, 9 μg, or 30 μg) or a placebo (0·9% NaCl) 21 days apart. SCB-2019 either had no adjuvant (S-Trimer protein alone) or was adjuvanted with AS03 or CpG/Alum. The assigned treatment was administered in opaque syringes to maintain masking of assignments. Reactogenicity was assessed for 7 days after each vaccination. Humoral responses were measured as SCB-2019 binding IgG antibodies and ACE2-competitive blocking IgG antibodies by ELISA and as neutralising antibodies by wild-type SARS-CoV-2 microneutralisation assay. Cellular responses to pooled S-protein peptides were measured by flow-cytometric intracellular cytokine staining. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04405908; this is an interim analysis and the study is continuing.
Findings
Between June 19 and Sept 23, 2020, 151 volunteers were enrolled; three people withdrew, two for personal reasons and one with an unrelated serious adverse event (pituitary adenoma). 148 participants had at least 4 weeks of follow-up after dose two and were included in this analysis (database lock, Oct 23, 2020). Vaccination was well tolerated, with two grade 3 solicited adverse events (pain in 9 μg AS03-adjuvanted and 9 μg CpG/Alum-adjuvanted groups). Most local adverse events were mild injection-site pain, and local events were more frequent with SCB-2019 formulations containing AS03 adjuvant (44-69%) than with those containing CpG/Alum adjuvant (6-44%) or no adjuvant (3-13%). Systemic adverse events were more frequent in younger adults (38%) than in older adults (17%) after the first dose but increased to similar levels in both age groups after the second dose (30% in older and 34% in younger adults). SCB-2019 with no adjuvant elicited minimal immune responses (three seroconversions by day 50), but SCB-2019 with fixed doses of either AS03 or CpG/Alum adjuvants induced high titres and seroconversion rates of binding and neutralising antibodies in both younger and older adults (anti-SCB-2019 IgG antibody geometric mean titres at day 36 were 1567-4452 with AS03 and 174-2440 with CpG/Alum). Titres in all AS03 dose groups and the CpG/Alum 30 μg group were higher than were those recorded in a panel of convalescent serum samples from patients with COVID-19. Both adjuvanted SCB-2019 formulations elicited T-helper-1-biased CD4+ T-cell responses.
Interpretation
The SCB-2019 vaccine, comprising S-Trimer protein formulated with either AS03 or CpG/Alum adjuvants, elicited robust humoral and cellular immune responses against SARS-CoV-2, with high viral neutralising activity. Both adjuvanted vaccine formulations were well tolerated and are suitable for further clinical development.
Funding
Clover Biopharmaceuticals and the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations.

Copyright © 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 19 Jan 2021; 397:682-694
Richmond P, Hatchuel L, Dong M, Ma B, ... Liang J, Clemens R
Lancet: 19 Jan 2021; 397:682-694 | PMID: 33524311
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Abstract

Safety and efficacy of an rAd26 and rAd5 vector-based heterologous prime-boost COVID-19 vaccine: an interim analysis of a randomised controlled phase 3 trial in Russia.

Logunov DY, Dolzhikova IV, Shcheblyakov DV, Tukhvatulin AI, ... Gintsburg AL, Gam-COVID-Vac Vaccine Trial Group
Background
A heterologous recombinant adenovirus (rAd)-based vaccine, Gam-COVID-Vac (Sputnik V), showed a good safety profile and induced strong humoral and cellular immune responses in participants in phase 1/2 clinical trials. Here, we report preliminary results on the efficacy and safety of Gam-COVID-Vac from the interim analysis of this phase 3 trial.
Methods
We did a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, phase 3 trial at 25 hospitals and polyclinics in Moscow, Russia. We included participants aged at least 18 years, with negative SARS-CoV-2 PCR and IgG and IgM tests, no infectious diseases in the 14 days before enrolment, and no other vaccinations in the 30 days before enrolment. Participants were randomly assigned (3:1) to receive vaccine or placebo, with stratification by age group. Investigators, participants, and all study staff were masked to group assignment. The vaccine was administered (0·5 mL/dose) intramuscularly in a prime-boost regimen: a 21-day interval between the first dose (rAd26) and the second dose (rAd5), both vectors carrying the gene for the full-length SARS-CoV-2 glycoprotein S. The primary outcome was the proportion of participants with PCR-confirmed COVID-19 from day 21 after receiving the first dose. All analyses excluded participants with protocol violations: the primary outcome was assessed in participants who had received two doses of vaccine or placebo, serious adverse events were assessed in all participants who had received at least one dose at the time of database lock, and rare adverse events were assessed in all participants who had received two doses and for whom all available data were verified in the case report form at the time of database lock. The trial is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT04530396).
Findings
Between Sept 7 and Nov 24, 2020, 21 977 adults were randomly assigned to the vaccine group (n=16 501) or the placebo group (n=5476). 19 866 received two doses of vaccine or placebo and were included in the primary outcome analysis. From 21 days after the first dose of vaccine (the day of dose 2), 16 (0·1%) of 14 964 participants in the vaccine group and 62 (1·3%) of 4902 in the placebo group were confirmed to have COVID-19; vaccine efficacy was 91·6% (95% CI 85·6-95·2). Most reported adverse events were grade 1 (7485 [94·0%] of 7966 total events). 45 (0·3%) of 16 427 participants in the vaccine group and 23 (0·4%) of 5435 participants in the placebo group had serious adverse events; none were considered associated with vaccination, with confirmation from the independent data monitoring committee. Four deaths were reported during the study (three [<0·1%] of 16 427 participants in the vaccine group and one [<0·1%] of 5435 participants in the placebo group), none of which were considered related to the vaccine.
Interpretation
This interim analysis of the phase 3 trial of Gam-COVID-Vac showed 91·6% efficacy against COVID-19 and was well tolerated in a large cohort.
Funding
Moscow City Health Department, Russian Direct Investment Fund, and Sberbank.

Copyright © 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 19 Jan 2021; 397:671-681
Logunov DY, Dolzhikova IV, Shcheblyakov DV, Tukhvatulin AI, ... Gintsburg AL, Gam-COVID-Vac Vaccine Trial Group
Lancet: 19 Jan 2021; 397:671-681 | PMID: 33545094
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Impact:
Abstract

Call to action: how can the US Ending the HIV Epidemic initiative succeed?

Beyrer C, Adimora AA, Hodder SL, Hopkins E, ... Copeland R, Mayer KH
With more than 1·2 million people living with HIV in the USA, a complex epidemic across the large and diverse country, and a fragmented health-care system marked by widening health disparities, the US HIV epidemic requires sustained scientific and public health attention. The epidemic has been stubbornly persistent; high incidence densities have been sustained over decades and the epidemic is increasingly concentrated among racial, ethnic, and sexual and gender minority communities. This fact remains true despite extraordinary scientific advances in prevention, treatment, and care-advances that have been led, to a substantial degree, by US-supported science and researchers. In this watershed year of 2021 and in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic, it is clear that the USA will not meet the stated goals of the National HIV/AIDS Strategy, particularly those goals relating to reductions in new infections, decreases in morbidity, and reductions in HIV stigma. The six papers in the Lancet Series on HIV in the USA have each examined the underlying causes of these challenges and laid out paths forward for an invigorated, sustained, and more equitable response to the US HIV epidemic than has been seen to date. The sciences of HIV surveillance, prevention, treatment, and implementation all suggest that the visionary goals of the Ending the HIV Epidemic initiative in the USA might be achievable. However, fundamental barriers and challenges need to be addressed and the research effort sustained if we are to succeed.

Copyright © 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 19 Jan 2021; 397:1151-1156
Beyrer C, Adimora AA, Hodder SL, Hopkins E, ... Copeland R, Mayer KH
Lancet: 19 Jan 2021; 397:1151-1156 | PMID: 33617770
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Impact:
Abstract

Azithromycin for community treatment of suspected COVID-19 in people at increased risk of an adverse clinical course in the UK (PRINCIPLE): a randomised, controlled, open-label, adaptive platform trial.

PRINCIPLE Trial Collaborative Group
Background
Azithromycin, an antibiotic with potential antiviral and anti-inflammatory properties, has been used to treat COVID-19, but evidence from community randomised trials is lacking. We aimed to assess the effectiveness of azithromycin to treat suspected COVID-19 among people in the community who had an increased risk of complications.
Methods
In this UK-based, primary care, open-label, multi-arm, adaptive platform randomised trial of interventions against COVID-19 in people at increased risk of an adverse clinical course (PRINCIPLE), we randomly assigned people aged 65 years and older, or 50 years and older with at least one comorbidity, who had been unwell for 14 days or less with suspected COVID-19, to usual care plus azithromycin 500 mg daily for three days, usual care plus other interventions, or usual care alone. The trial had two coprimary endpoints measured within 28 days from randomisation: time to first self-reported recovery, analysed using a Bayesian piecewise exponential, and hospital admission or death related to COVID-19, analysed using a Bayesian logistic regression model. Eligible participants with outcome data were included in the primary analysis, and those who received the allocated treatment were included in the safety analysis. The trial is registered with ISRCTN, ISRCTN86534580.
Findings
The first participant was recruited to PRINCIPLE on April 2, 2020. The azithromycin group enrolled participants between May 22 and Nov 30, 2020, by which time 2265 participants had been randomly assigned, 540 to azithromycin plus usual care, 875 to usual care alone, and 850 to other interventions. 2120 (94%) of 2265 participants provided follow-up data and were included in the Bayesian primary analysis, 500 participants in the azithromycin plus usual care group, 823 in the usual care alone group, and 797 in other intervention groups. 402 (80%) of 500 participants in the azithromycin plus usual care group and 631 (77%) of 823 participants in the usual care alone group reported feeling recovered within 28 days. We found little evidence of a meaningful benefit in the azithromycin plus usual care group in time to first reported recovery versus usual care alone (hazard ratio 1·08, 95% Bayesian credibility interval [BCI] 0·95 to 1·23), equating to an estimated benefit in median time to first recovery of 0·94 days (95% BCI -0·56 to 2·43). The probability that there was a clinically meaningful benefit of at least 1·5 days in time to recovery was 0·23. 16 (3%) of 500 participants in the azithromycin plus usual care group and 28 (3%) of 823 participants in the usual care alone group were hospitalised (absolute benefit in percentage 0·3%, 95% BCI -1·7 to 2·2). There were no deaths in either study group. Safety outcomes were similar in both groups. Two (1%) of 455 participants in the azothromycin plus usual care group and four (1%) of 668 participants in the usual care alone group reported admission to hospital during the trial, not related to COVID-19.
Interpretation
Our findings do not justify the routine use of azithromycin for reducing time to recovery or risk of hospitalisation for people with suspected COVID-19 in the community. These findings have important antibiotic stewardship implications during this pandemic, as inappropriate use of antibiotics leads to increased antimicrobial resistance, and there is evidence that azithromycin use increased during the pandemic in the UK.
Funding
UK Research and Innovation and UK Department of Health and Social Care.

Copyright © 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 19 Jan 2021; 397:1063-1074
PRINCIPLE Trial Collaborative Group
Lancet: 19 Jan 2021; 397:1063-1074 | PMID: 33676597
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Impact:
Abstract

Seroprevalence and humoral immune durability of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in Wuhan, China: a longitudinal, population-level, cross-sectional study.

He Z, Ren L, Yang J, Guo L, ... Yang W, Wang C
Background
Wuhan was the epicentre of the COVID-19 outbreak in China. We aimed to determine the seroprevalence and kinetics of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies at population level in Wuhan to inform the development of vaccination strategies.
Methods
In this longitudinal cross-sectional study, we used a multistage, population-stratified, cluster random sampling method to systematically select 100 communities from the 13 districts of Wuhan. Households were systematically selected from each community and all family members were invited to community health-care centres to participate. Eligible individuals were those who had lived in Wuhan for at least 14 days since Dec 1, 2019. All eligible participants who consented to participate completed a standardised electronic questionnaire of demographic and clinical questions and self-reported any symptoms associated with COVID-19 or previous diagnosis of COVID-19. A venous blood sample was taken for immunological testing on April 14-15, 2020. Blood samples were tested for the presence of pan-immunoglobulins, IgM, IgA, and IgG antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid protein and neutralising antibodies were assessed. We did two successive follow-ups between June 11 and June 13, and between Oct 9 and Dec 5, 2020, at which blood samples were taken.
Findings
Of 4600 households randomly selected, 3599 families (78·2%) with 9702 individuals attended the baseline visit. 9542 individuals from 3556 families had sufficient samples for analyses. 532 (5·6%) of 9542 participants were positive for pan-immunoglobulins against SARS-CoV-2, with a baseline adjusted seroprevalence of 6·92% (95% CI 6·41-7·43) in the population. 437 (82·1%) of 532 participants who were positive for pan-immunoglobulins were asymptomatic. 69 (13·0%) of 532 individuals were positive for IgM antibodies, 84 (15·8%) were positive for IgA antibodies, 532 (100%) were positive for IgG antibodies, and 212 (39·8%) were positive for neutralising antibodies at baseline. The proportion of individuals who were positive for pan-immunoglobulins who had neutralising antibodies in April remained stable for the two follow-up visits (162 [44·6%] of 363 in June, 2020, and 187 [41·2%] of 454 in October-December, 2020). On the basis of data from 335 individuals who attended all three follow-up visits and who were positive for pan-immunoglobulins, neutralising antibody levels did not significantly decrease over the study period (median 1/5·6 [IQR 1/2·0 to 1/14·0] at baseline vs 1/5·6 [1/4·0 to 1/11·2] at first follow-up [p=1·0] and 1/6·3 [1/2·0 to 1/12·6] at second follow-up [p=0·29]). However, neutralising antibody titres were lower in asymptomatic individuals than in confirmed cases and symptomatic individuals. Although titres of IgG decreased over time, the proportion of individuals who had IgG antibodies did not decrease substantially (from 30 [100%] of 30 at baseline to 26 [89·7%] of 29 at second follow-up among confirmed cases, 65 [100%] of 65 at baseline to 58 [92·1%] of 63 at second follow-up among symptomatic individuals, and 437 [100%] of 437 at baseline to 329 [90·9%] of 362 at second follow-up among asymptomatic individuals).
Interpretation
6·92% of a cross-sectional sample of the population of Wuhan developed antibodies against SARS-CoV-2, with 39·8% of this population seroconverting to have neutralising antibodies. Our durability data on humoral responses indicate that mass vaccination is needed to effect herd protection to prevent the resurgence of the epidemic.
Funding
Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences & Peking Union Medical College, National Natural Science Foundation, and Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology.
Translation
For the Chinese translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Copyright © 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lancet: 19 Jan 2021; 397:1075-1084
He Z, Ren L, Yang J, Guo L, ... Yang W, Wang C
Lancet: 19 Jan 2021; 397:1075-1084 | PMID: 33743869
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Impact:

This program is still in alpha version.