The Association of Moderate Aortic Stenosis with Poor Survival Is Modified by Age and Left Ventricular Function: Insights from SHEBAHEART Big Data

Background: Data on the independent association of moderate aortic stenosis (AS) with excess mortality, even when it does not progress to severe AS, are limited. The aims of this study were to evaluate the association of moderate AS with poor survival and to identify clinically important modifiers of that association.

Methods: Consecutive patients who underwent echocardiographic evaluation between 2007 and 2019 were included. All-cause mortality and cancer data were available for all patients from national registries. Cox regression survival models were applied, with censoring of patients who developed metastatic cancer, developed more than moderate AS, or underwent aortic valve intervention during follow-up.

Results: The study population included 92,622 patients. There were 2,202 patients (2%) with moderate AS, with a median age of 79 years (interquartile range, 70-85 years), of whom 1,254 (57%) were men. During median follow-up of 5 years (interquartile range, 3-8 years), 19,712 patients (21%) died. The cumulative probability of death at 5 years was higher for patients with moderate AS (46% vs 18%, respectively, log-rank P < .001). Propensity score matching analysis (n = 2,896) that included clinical, laboratory, and echocardiographic predictors of poor survival demonstrated that compared with patients with mild or less AS, those with moderate AS were 17% more likely to die (95% CI, 1.04-1.30; P = .007). Moreover, the model showed that the moderate AS-associated risk was ejection fraction and age dependent, with a more pronounced association among nonoctogenarian patients (P for interaction = .001) and those with reduced ejection fractions (P for interaction = .016).

Conclusions: Moderate AS is independently associated with excess mortality, even when it does not progress to severe AS. The associated risk is more pronounced among patients with reduced ejection fractions and those <80 years of age.