Importance: The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) expanded labeling for sacubitril/valsartan for use in individuals with chronic heart failure (HF) with left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) lower than normal. The population-level implications of implementation of sacubitril/valsartan at higher LVEF ranges is unknown. While the Prospective Comparison of ARNI With ARB Global Outcomes in HF With Preserved Ejection Fraction (PARAGON-HF) trial did not meet its primary end point, the trial may provide useful information in projecting expected clinical events among treated individuals.
Objective: To quantify newly eligible treatment candidates for sacubitril/valsartan under the expanded FDA labeling and to apply treatment effects and the number needed to treat (NNT) to prevent 1 worsening HF event derived from subgroups of the PARAGON-HF trial who fall under the revised FDA label.
Design, setting, and participants: Newly eligible treatment candidates were estimated by mapping the LVEF distribution from 559 520 adult patients hospitalized between 2014 and 2019 in the Get With The Guidelines-Heart Failure registry to adults self-identifying with HF in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (2015 to 2018). The NNT with 3 years of treatment for 3 end points of interest (total HF hospitalizations, total HF hospitalizations and cardiovascular death, and total HF hospitalizations and urgent HF visits and cardiovascular death) were estimated from the PARAGON-HF trial. Data were analyzed from February to June 2021.
Main outcomes and measures: Number of worsening HF events prevented or postponed if eligible patients were treated with sacubitril/valsartan for 3 years.
Results: Of an estimated 4 682 098 adults, the mean (SE) age was 66.3 (0.8) years, 1 995 037 (42.6%) were women, and 748 045 (16.0%) were Black. The potential number of adults projected to be newly eligible varied by the definition of FDA labeling of lower than normal LVEF from 643 161 (95% CI, 534 433-751 888; LVEF of 41% to 50%) to 1 838 756 (95% CI, 1 527 911-2 149 601; LVEF of 41% to 60%). In the PARAGON-HF trial, the NNT to prevent a worsening HF event (range, 7 to 12 patients) was consistent irrespective of specific LVEF range selected. Comprehensive implementation of sacubitril/valsartan among newly eligible patients was empirically estimated to prevent up to 69 268 (95% CI, 57 558-80 978) worsening HF events (LVEF of 41% to 50%) to 182 592 (95% CI, 151 725-213 460) worsening HF events (LVEF of 41% to 60%).
Conclusions and relevance: The expanded FDA labeling is positioned to substantially increase the potential HF population eligible for sacubitril/valsartan by up to 1.8 million individuals and has the potential to prevent or postpone as many as 180 000 worsening HF events, depending on the definition of normal LVEF.