Long-term survival in patients with post-LVAD right ventricular failure: multi-state modelling with competing outcomes of heart transplant

J Heart Lung Transplant. 2021 Aug;40(8):778-785. doi: 10.1016/j.healun.2021.05.002. Epub 2021 May 19.

Abstract

Background: Multicenter data on long term survival following LVAD implantation that make use of contemporary definitions of RV failure are limited. Furthermore, traditional survival analyses censor patients who receive a bridge to heart transplant. Here we compare the outcomes of LVAD patients who develop post-operative RV failure accounting for the transitional probability of receiving an interim heart transplantation.

Methods: We use a retrospective cohort of LVAD patients sourced from multiple high-volume centers based in the United States. Five- and ten-year survival accounting for transition probabilities of receiving a heart transplant were calculated using a multi-state Aalen Johansen survival model.

Results: Of the 897 patients included in the study, 238 (26.5%) developed post-operative RV failure at index hospitalization. At 10 years the probability of death with post-op RV failure was 79.28% vs 61.70% in patients without (HR 2.10; 95% CI 1.72 - 2.57; p = < .001). Though not significant, patients with RV failure were less likely to be bridged to a heart transplant (HR 0.87, p = .4). Once transplanted the risk of death between both patient groups remained equivalent; the probability of death after a heart transplant was 3.97% in those with post-operative RV failure shortly after index LVAD implant, as compared to 14.71% in those without.

Conclusions and relevance: Long-term durable mechanical circulatory support is associated with significantly higher mortality in patients who develop post-operative RV failure. Improving outcomes may necessitate expeditious bridge to heart transplant wherever appropriate, along with critical reassessment of organ allocation policies.

Keywords: heart failure; heart transplantation; left ventricular assist device; multi-state survival; right ventricular failure.

Publication types

  • Multicenter Study
  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Equipment Failure
  • Female
  • Follow-Up Studies
  • Heart Failure / etiology
  • Heart Failure / mortality*
  • Heart Failure / surgery
  • Heart Transplantation*
  • Heart Ventricles / diagnostic imaging*
  • Heart Ventricles / physiopathology
  • Heart-Assist Devices / adverse effects*
  • Humans
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Postoperative Complications / etiology
  • Postoperative Complications / mortality*
  • Postoperative Complications / surgery
  • Prognosis
  • Reoperation
  • Retrospective Studies
  • Survival Rate / trends
  • Time Factors
  • United States / epidemiology
  • Ventricular Dysfunction, Right / physiopathology
  • Ventricular Dysfunction, Right / surgery*
  • Ventricular Function, Right / physiology*