Expired carbon dioxide during newborn resuscitation as predictor of outcome

Aim: To explore and compare expired CO₂ (ECO₂) and heart rate (HR), during newborn resuscitation with bag-mask ventilation, as predictors of 24-h outcome.

Methods: Observational study from March 2013 to June 2017 in a rural Tanzanian hospital. Side-stream measures of ECO₂, ventilation parameters, HR, clinical information, and 24-h outcome were recorded in live born bag-mask ventilated newborns with initial HR < 120 bpm. We analysed the data using logistic regression models and compared areas under the receiver operating curves (AUC) for ECO₂ and HR within three selected time intervals after onset of ventilation (0-30 s, 30.1-60 s and 60.1-300 s).

Results: Among 434 included newborns (median birth weight 3100 g), 378 were alive at 24 h, 56 had died. Both ECO₂ and HR were independently significant predictors of 24-h outcome, with no differences in AUCs. In the first 60 s of ventilation, ECO₂ added extra predictive information compared to HR alone. After 60 s, ECO₂ lost significance when adjusted for HR. In 70% of newborns with initial ECO₂ <2% and HR < 100 bpm, ECO₂ reached ≥2% before HR ≥ 100 bpm. Survival at 24 h was reduced by 17% per minute before ECO₂ reached ≥2% and 44% per minute before HR reached ≥100 bpm.

Conclusions: Higher levels and a faster rise in ECO₂ and HR during newborn resuscitation were independently associated with improved survival compared to persisting low values. ECO₂ increased before HR and may serve as an earlier predictor of survival.