Distribution and Correlates of Incident Heart Failure Risk in South Asian Americans: The MASALA Study

Background: South Asian Americans experience disproportionately high burden of cardiovascular diseases. Estimating predicted heart failure (HF) risk distribution may facilitate targeted prevention. We estimated the distribution of 10-year predicted risk of incident HF in South Asian Americans and evaluated the associations with social determinants of health and clinical risk factors.

Methods and results: In the Mediators of Atherosclerosis in South Asians Living in America (MASALA) Study, we calculated 10-year predicted HF risk using the Pooled Cohort Equations to Prevent Heart Failure multivariable model. Distributions of low (<1%), intermediate (1%-5%), and high (≥5%) HF risk, identified overall and by demographic and clinical characteristics, were compared. We evaluated age- and sex-adjusted associations of demographic characteristics and coronary artery calcium with predicted HF risk category using ordinal logistic regression. In 1159 participants (48% women), with a mean age of 57 ± 9 years, 40% had a low, 37% had an intermediate, and 24% had a high HF risk. Significant differences in HF risk distribution existed across demographic (income, education, birthplace) and clinical (diabetes, hypertension, body mass index, coronary artery calcium) groups (P < .01). Significant associations with high predicted HF risk were observed for a family of income 75,000/year or more (adjusted odds ratio 0.5 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.4-0.7]), college education (0.6 [95% CI 0.4-0.9]), birthplace in another South Asian country (1.9 [95% CI 1.2-3.2], vs. born in India), and prevalent coronary artery calcium (2.6 [95% CI 1.9-3.6]).

Conclusions: Almost two-thirds of South Asian Americans in the MASALA cohort are at intermediate or high predicted 10-year HF risk, with varying risk across demographic and clinical characteristics.