Non-genetic risk factors for atrial fibrillation are equally important in both young and old age: A nationwide population-based study

Aims: There are several non-genetic risk factors for new-onset atrial fibrillation, including age, sex, obesity, hypertension, diabetes, and alcohol consumption. However, whether these non-genetic risk factors have equal significance among different age groups is not known. We performed a nationwide population-based analysis to compare the clinical significance of non-genetic risk factors for new-onset atrial fibrillation in various age groups.

Methods and results: A total of 9,797,409 people without a prior diagnosis of atrial fibrillation who underwent a national health check-up in 2009 were included. During 80,130,090 person-years of follow-up, a total of 196,136 people were diagnosed with new-onset atrial fibrillation. The impact of non-genetic risk factors on new-onset atrial fibrillation was examined in different age groups. Obesity, male sex, heavy alcohol consumption, smoking, hypertension, diabetes and chronic kidney disease were associated with an increased risk of new-onset atrial fibrillation. With minor variations, these risk factors were consistently associated with the risk of new-onset atrial fibrillation among various age groups. Using these risk factors, we created a scoring system to predict future risk of new-onset atrial fibrillation in different age groups. In receiver operating characteristic curve analysis, the predictive value of these risk factors ranged between 0.556 and 0.603, and no significant trends were observed.

Conclusions: Non-genetic risk factors for new-onset atrial fibrillation may have a similar impact on different age groups. Except for sex, these non-genetic risk factors can be modifiable. Therefore, efforts to control non-genetic risk factors might have relevance for both the young and old.