Percentage of age-predicted cardiorespiratory fitness and risk of sudden cardiac death: A prospective cohort study

Background: The inverse associations between cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) and vascular outcomes have been established. However, there has been no prospective evaluation of the relationship between percentage of age-predicted cardiorespiratory fitness (%age-predicted CRF) and risk of sudden cardiac death (SCD).

Objective: The purpose of this study was to assess the association of %age-predicted CRF with SCD risk in a long-term prospective cohort study.

Methods: CRF was assessed using the gold standard respiratory gas exchange analyzer in 2276 men who underwent cardiopulmonary exercise testing. The age-predicted CRF estimated from a regression equation for age was converted to %age-predicted CRF using (Achieved CRF/Age-predicted CRF) × 100. Hazard ratios (HRs) [95% confidence intervals (CIs)] were calculated for SCD.

Results: During median follow-up of 28.2 years, 260 SCDs occurred. There was a dose-response relationship between age-predicted CRF and SCD. A 1-SD increase in %age-predicted CRF was associated with a decreased risk of SCD in analysis adjusted for established risk factors (HR 0.60; 95% CI 0.53-0.70), which remained consistent on further adjustment for several potential confounders, including alcohol consumption, physical activity, socioeconomic status, and systemic inflammation (HR 0.73; 95% CI 0.62-0.85). The corresponding adjusted HRs were 0.34 (0.23-0.50) and 0.52 (0.34-0.79), respectively, when comparing extreme quartiles of %age-predicted CRF levels. HRs for the associations of absolute CRF levels with SCD risk in the same participants were similar.

Conclusion: Percentage of age-predicted CRF is continuously, strongly, and independently associated with risk of SCD and is comparable to absolute CRF as a risk indicator for SCD.