Long-Term Association of Air Pollution and Hospital Admissions Among Medicare Participants Using a Doubly Robust Additive Model

Background: Studies examining the nonfatal health outcomes of exposure to air pollution have been limited by the number of pollutants studied and focus on short-term exposures.

Methods: We examined the relationship between long-term exposure to fine particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter <2.5 micrometers (PM_2.5), NO₂, and tropospheric ozone and hospital admissions for 4 cardiovascular and respiratory outcomes (myocardial infarction, ischemic stroke, atrial fibrillation and flutter, and pneumonia) among the Medicare population of the United States. We used a doubly robust method for our statistical analysis, which relies on both inverse probability weighting and adjustment in the outcome model to account for confounding. The results from this regression are on an additive scale. We further looked at this relationship at lower pollutant concentrations, which are consistent with typical exposure levels in the United States, and among potentially susceptible subgroups.

Results: Long-term exposure to fine PM_2.5 was associated with an increased risk of all outcomes with the highest effect seen for stroke with a 0.0091% (95% CI, 0.0086-0.0097) increase in the risk of stroke for each 1-µg/m³ increase in annual levels. This translated to 2536 (95% CI, 2383-2691) cases of hospital admissions with ischemic stroke per year, which can be attributed to each 1-unit increase in fine particulate matter levels among the study population. NO₂ was associated with an increase in the risk of admission with stroke by 0.00059% (95% CI, 0.00039-0.00075) and atrial fibrillation by 0.00129% (95% CI, 0.00114-0.00148) per ppb and tropospheric ozone was associated with an increase in the risk of admission with pneumonia by 0.00413% (95% CI, 0.00376-0.00447) per parts per billion. At lower concentrations, all pollutants were consistently associated with an increased risk for all our studied outcomes.

Conclusions: Long-term exposure to air pollutants poses a significant risk to cardiovascular and respiratory health among the elderly population in the United States, with the greatest increase in the association per unit of exposure occurring at lower concentrations.