Risk factors for mortality in lung transplant recipients aged ≥65 years: A retrospective cohort study of 5,815 patients in the scientific registry of transplant recipients

Background: Lung transplantation is increasingly performed in recipients aged ≥65 years. However, the risk factors for mortality specific to this population have not been well studied. In lung transplant recipients aged ≥65 years, we sought to determine post-transplant survival and clinical factors associated with post-transplant mortality.

Methods: We investigated 5,815 adult lung transplants recipients aged ≥65 years in the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients. Mortality was defined as a composite of recipient death or retransplantation. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to estimate the median time to mortality. Univariable and multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to examine the association between time to mortality and 23 donor, recipient, or center characteristics.

Results: Median survival in lung transplant recipients aged ≥65 years was 4.41 years (95% CI: 4.21-4.60 years) and significantly worsened by increasing age strata. In the multivariable model, increasing recipient age strata, creatinine level, bilirubin level, hospitalization at the time of transplantation, single lung transplant operation, steroid use at the time of transplantation, donor diabetes, and cytomegalovirus mismatch were independently associated with increased mortality.

Conclusions: Among the 8 risk factors we identified, 5 factors are readily available, which can be used to optimize post-transplant survival by informing risk during candidate selection of patients aged ≥65 years. Furthermore, bilateral lung transplantation may confer improved survival in comparison with single lung transplantation. Our results support that after careful consideration of risk factors, lung transplantation can provide life-extending benefits in individuals aged ≥65 years.