Machine Learned Cellular Phenotypes in Cardiomyopathy Predict Sudden Death

Circ Res. 2021 Jan 22;128(2):172-184. doi: 10.1161/CIRCRESAHA.120.317345. Epub 2020 Nov 10.

Abstract

Rationale: Susceptibility to VT/VF (ventricular tachycardia/fibrillation) is difficult to predict in patients with ischemic cardiomyopathy either by clinical tools or by attempting to translate cellular mechanisms to the bedside.

Objective: To develop computational phenotypes of patients with ischemic cardiomyopathy, by training then interpreting machine learning of ventricular monophasic action potentials (MAPs) to reveal phenotypes that predict long-term outcomes.

Methods and results: We recorded 5706 ventricular MAPs in 42 patients with coronary artery disease and left ventricular ejection fraction ≤40% during steady-state pacing. Patients were randomly allocated to independent training and testing cohorts in a 70:30 ratio, repeated K=10-fold. Support vector machines and convolutional neural networks were trained to 2 end points: (1) sustained VT/VF or (2) mortality at 3 years. Support vector machines provided superior classification. For patient-level predictions, we computed personalized MAP scores as the proportion of MAP beats predicting each end point. Patient-level predictions in independent test cohorts yielded c-statistics of 0.90 for sustained VT/VF (95% CI, 0.76-1.00) and 0.91 for mortality (95% CI, 0.83-1.00) and were the most significant multivariate predictors. Interpreting trained support vector machine revealed MAP morphologies that, using in silico modeling, revealed higher L-type calcium current or sodium-calcium exchanger as predominant phenotypes for VT/VF.

Conclusions: Machine learning of action potential recordings in patients revealed novel phenotypes for long-term outcomes in ischemic cardiomyopathy. Such computational phenotypes provide an approach which may reveal cellular mechanisms for clinical outcomes and could be applied to other conditions.

Keywords: artificial intelligence; coronary disease; death, sudden, cardiac; heart failure; ion channels; systems biology.

Publication types

  • Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural
  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
  • Video-Audio Media

MeSH terms

  • Action Potentials
  • Aged
  • Aged, 80 and over
  • Cardiomyopathies / diagnosis*
  • Cardiomyopathies / etiology
  • Cardiomyopathies / mortality
  • Cardiomyopathies / physiopathology
  • Death, Sudden, Cardiac / etiology*
  • Diagnosis, Computer-Assisted*
  • Electrophysiologic Techniques, Cardiac*
  • Female
  • Humans
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Myocardial Infarction / complications
  • Myocardial Infarction / mortality
  • Myocardial Infarction / physiopathology
  • Neural Networks, Computer*
  • Phenotype
  • Predictive Value of Tests
  • Prognosis
  • Prospective Studies
  • Risk Assessment
  • Risk Factors
  • Signal Processing, Computer-Assisted*
  • Support Vector Machine*
  • Tachycardia, Ventricular / diagnosis*
  • Tachycardia, Ventricular / etiology
  • Tachycardia, Ventricular / mortality
  • Tachycardia, Ventricular / physiopathology
  • Time Factors
  • Ventricular Fibrillation / diagnosis*
  • Ventricular Fibrillation / etiology
  • Ventricular Fibrillation / mortality
  • Ventricular Fibrillation / physiopathology