Arterial stiffness is an independent predictor for risk of mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus: the REBOUND study

Background: This study aimed to evaluate the benefit of brachial-ankle pulse wave velocity (baPWV) as a noninvasive marker of arterial stiffness for the prediction of all-cause and cause-specific mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes.

Methods: This multicenter prospective observational study analyzed 2308 patients with type 2 diabetes between 2008 and 2018. The patients were categorized according to the quartiles of baPWV. Cause of mortality was determined using death certificates and patient clinical records. We estimated proportional mortality rates from all causes, cardiovascular, cancer, and other causes among adults with diabetic status according to their baPWV. Cox regression models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs).

Results: There were 199 deaths (8.6%) in the study population during a median follow-up duration of 8.6 years. When baPWV was assessed as quartiles, a significantly higher risk of all-cause mortality (HR = 5.39, P < 0.001), cardiovascular-mortality (HR = 14.89, P < 0.001), cancer-mortality (HR = 5.42, P < 0.001), and other-cause mortality (HR = 4.12, P < 0.001) was found in quartile 4 (Q4, ≥ 1830 cm/s) than in quartiles 1-3 (Q1-3). Adding baPWV to baseline model containing conventional risk factors such as age, sex, diabetes duration, body mass index, glycated hemoglobin, systolic blood pressure, glomerular filtration rate, smoking, and insulin improved the risk prediction for all-cause (net reclassification index (NRI) = 49%, P < 0.001) and cause-specific (cardiovascular NRI = 28%, P = 0.030; cancer NRI = 55%, P < 0.001; other-cause NRI 51%, P < 0.001) mortality.

Conclusion: This long-term, large-scale, multicenter prospective observational cohort study provide evidence that increased arterial stiffness, as measured by baPWV, predicts the risk of all-cause and cause-specific mortality in type 2 diabetes, supporting the prognostic utility of baPWV. Trial registration Clinical Research Information Service (CRIS), KCT 0005010. Retrospectively Registered May 12, 2020. https://cris.nih.go.kr/cris/search/search_result_st01.jsp?seq=16677.