Derivation and validation of a mortality risk prediction model using global longitudinal strain in patients with acute heart failure

Aims: To develop a mortality risk prediction model in patients with acute heart failure (AHF), using left ventricular (LV) function parameters with clinical factors.

Methods and results: In total, 4312 patients admitted for AHF were retrospectively identified from three tertiary centres, and echocardiographic parameters including LV ejection fraction (LV-EF) and LV global longitudinal strain (LV-GLS) were measured in a core laboratory. The full set of risk factors was available in 3248 patients. Using Cox proportional hazards model, we developed a mortality risk prediction model in 1859 patients from two centres (derivation cohort) and validated the model in 1389 patients from one centre (validation cohort). During 32 (interquartile range 13-54) months of follow-up, 1285 patients (39.6%) died. Significant predictors for mortality were age, diabetes, diastolic blood pressure, body mass index, natriuretic peptide, glomerular filtration rate, failure to prescribe beta-blockers, failure to prescribe renin-angiotensin system blockers, and LV-GLS; however, LV-EF was not a significant predictor. Final model including these predictors to estimate individual probabilities of mortality had C-statistics of 0.75 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.73-0.78; P < 0.001] in the derivation cohort and 0.78 (95% CI 0.75-0.80; P < 0.001) in the validation cohort. The prediction model had good performance in both heart failure (HF) with reduced EF, HF with mid-range EF, and HF with preserved EF.

Conclusion: We developed a mortality risk prediction model for patients with AHF incorporating LV-GLS as the LV function parameter, and other clinical factors. Our model provides an accurate prediction of mortality and may provide reliable risk stratification in AHF patients.