Prognostic impact of changes in aortic stiffness for cardiovascular and mortality outcomes in individuals with type 2 diabetes: the Rio de Janeiro cohort study

Background: The prognostic importance of changes in aortic stiffness for the occurrence of adverse cardiovascular outcomes and mortality has never been investigated in patients with type 2 diabetes. We aimed to evaluate it in a cohort of 417 patients.

Methods: Changes in aortic stiffness were assessed by 2 carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity (CF-PWV) measurements performed over a 4-year period. Multivariable Cox analysis examined the associations between changes in CF-PWV, evaluated as a continuous variable with splines and as categorical ones (quartiles and stable/reduction/increase subgroups), and the occurrence of total cardiovascular events (CVEs), major adverse CVEs (MACEs), and all-cause and cardiovascular mortality.

Results: Over a median follow-up of 8.2 years after the 2nd CF-PWV measurement, there were 101 total CVEs (85 MACEs) and 135 all-cause deaths (64 cardiovascular). As a continuous variable, the lowest risk nadir was at -2.5%/year of CF-PWV change, with significantly higher risks of mortality associated with CF-PWV increases, but no excess risks at extremes of CF-PWV reduction. Otherwise, in categorical analyses, patients in the 1st quartile (greatest CF-PWV reductions) had excess risks of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality (hazard ratios [HRs]: 2.0-2.7), whereas patients in 3rd quartile had higher risks of all outcomes (HRs: 2.0-3.2), in relation to the lowest risk 2nd quartile subgroup. Patients in the 4th quartile had higher risks of all-cause mortality. Categorization as stable/reduction/increase subgroups was confirmatory, with higher risks at greater reductions (HRs: 1.7-3.3) and at greater increases in CF-PWV (HRs: 1.9-3.4), in relation to those with stable CF-PWV.

Conclusions: Changes in aortic stiffness, mainly increases and possibly also extreme reductions, are predictors of adverse cardiovascular outcomes and mortality in individuals with type 2 diabetes.