Prediction of hospital mortality in mechanically ventilated patients with congestive heart failure using machine learning approaches

Background: Mechanically ventilated patients with congestive heart failure (CHF) are at high-risk of mortality. We aimed to develop and validate a prediction model based on machine learning (ML) algorithms to predict hospital mortality in mechanically ventilated patients with CHF.

Methods: Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression was used to identify the key features. Hyperparameters optimization (HPO) was conducted to modify the prediction model. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), accuracy, calibration curve and decision curve analysis were used to evaluate prediction performance. The final model was validated using an external validation set from another database. The prediction results were represented by a nomogram.

Results: A total of 4530 qualified patients were included. Among 11 ML-algorithms, CatBoost showed the best prediction performance (AUC = 0.833). And 10 key features (10/63) were selected based on the LASSO regression. After HPO, the prediction performance of the CatBoost model based on the key features was significantly improved (AUCs: 0.805 vs. 0.821). Additionally, the CatBoost model also showed the satisfactory prediction performance in the external validation set (AUC = 0.806).

Conclusion: The present study developed and validated a CatBoost model, which could accurately predict hospital mortality in mechanically ventilated patients with CHF.