Background There is a paucity of evidence regarding the association between visit-to-visit blood pressure variability and residual cardiovascular risk. We aimed to provide relevant evidence by determining whether high systolic blood pressure (SBP) variability in the optimal SBP levels still influences the risk of cardiovascular disease. Methods and Results We studied 7065 participants (aged 59.3±5.6 years; 44.3% men; and 82.9% White) in the ARIC (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities) study with optimal SBP levels from visit 1 to visit 3. Visit-to-visit SBP variability was measured by variability independent of the mean in the primary analysis. The primary outcome was the major adverse cardiovascular event (MACE), defined as the first occurrence of all-cause mortality, coronary heart disease, stroke, and heart failure. During a median follow-up of 19.6 years, 2691 participants developed MACEs. After multivariable adjustment, the MACE risk was higher by 21% in participants with the highest SBP variability (variability independent of the mean quartile 4) compared with the lowest SBP variability participants (variability independent of the mean quartile 1) (hazard ratio, 1.21; 95% CI, 1.09-1.35). The restricted cubic spline showed that the hazard ratio for MACE was relatively linear, with a higher variability independent of the mean being associated with higher risk. These association were also found in the stratified analyses of participants with or without hypertension. Conclusions In adults with optimal SBP levels, higher visit-to-visit SBP variability was significantly associated with a higher risk of MACE regardless of whether they had hypertension. Therefore, it may be necessary to further focus on the visit-to-visit SBP variability even at the guideline-recommended optimal blood pressure levels.
Keywords: major adverse cardiovascular event; residual cardiovascular risk; risk factor; systolic blood pressure variability.