Background Postoperative headache (POH) is frequent after cardiac surgery; however, few studies on risk factors for POH exist. The aims of the current study were to explore risk factors related to POH after elective cardiac surgery and to establish a predictive system. Methods and Results Adult patients undergoing elective open-heart surgery under cardiopulmonary bypass from 2016 to 2020 in 4 cardiac centers were retrospectively included. Two thirds of the patients were randomly allocated to a training set and one third to a validation set. Predictors for POH were selected by univariate and multivariate analysis. POH developed in 3154 of the 13 440 included patients (23.5%) and the overall mortality rate was 2.3%. Eight independent risk factors for POH after elective cardiac surgery were identified, including female sex, younger age, smoking history, chronic headache history, hypertension, lower left ventricular ejection fraction, longer cardiopulmonary bypass time, and more intraoperative transfusion of red blood cells. A nomogram based on the multivariate model was constructed, with reasonable calibration and discrimination, and was well validated. Decision curve analysis revealed good clinical utility. Finally, 3 risk intervals were divided to better facilitate clinical application. Conclusions A nomogram model for POH after elective cardiac surgery was developed and validated using 8 predictors, which may have potential application value in clinical risk assessment, decision-making, and individualized treatment associated with POH.
Keywords: cardiac surgery; headache; nomogram; prediction model; risk factor.