Predictive value of the stress hyperglycemia ratio in patients with acute ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction: insights from a multi-center observational study

Background: Stress hyperglycemia is a strong predictor of adverse outcomes in patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI). Recently, the stress hyperglycemia ratio (SHR) has been designed as an index to identify acute hyperglycemia with true risk; however, data regarding the impact of SHR on the prognosis of ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) remains limited. This study aimed to evaluate the predictive value of the SHR in patients with acute STEMI and to assess whether it can improve the predictive efficiency of the Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) risk score.

Methods: This study included 7476 consecutive patients diagnosed with acute STEMI across 274 emergency centers. After excluding 2052 patients due to incomplete data, 5417 patients were included in the final analysis. Patients were divided into three groups according to SHR tertiles (SHR1, SHR2, and SHR3) and were further categorized based on diabetes status. All patients were followed up for major cardiovascular adverse events (MACEs) and all-cause mortality.

Results: After 30 days of follow-up, 1547 MACEs (28.6%) and 789 all-cause deaths (14.6%) occurred. The incidence of MACEs was highest among patients in the SHR3 group with diabetes mellitus (DM) (42.6%). Kaplan-Meier curves demonstrated that patients with SHR3 and DM also had the highest risk for MACEs when compared with other groups (p < 0.001). Moreover, C-statistics improved significantly when SHR3 was added into the original model: the ΔC-statistics (95% confidence interval) were 0.008 (0.000-0.013) in the total population, 0.010 (0.003-0.017) in the DM group, and 0.007 (0.002-0.013) in the non-DM group (all p < 0.05). In the receiver operating characteristic analysis, the area under the curve (AUC) for the original TIMI risk score for all-cause death was 0.760. When an SHR3 value of 1 point was used to replace the history of DM, hypertension, or angina in the original TIMI risk score, the Delong test revealed significant improvements in the AUC value (∆AUC of 0.009, p < 0.05), especially in the DM group (∆AUC of 0.010, p < 0.05).

Conclusion: The current results suggest that SHR is independently related to the risks of MACEs and mortality in patients with STEMI. Furthermore, SHR may aid in improving the predictive efficiency of the TIMI risk score in patients with STEMI, especially those with DM.