WATCH-DM risk score predicts the prognosis of diabetic phenotype patients with heart failure and preserved ejection fraction

Background: Heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) is a heterogeneous syndrome. Diabetes may identify an essential phenotype that significantly affects the prognosis of these patients. The WATCH-DM risk score has been validated for predicting the risk of heart failure in outpatients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), but its ability to predict clinical outcomes in HFpEF patients with T2DM is unknown. We aimed to assess whether this risk score could predict the prognosis of diabetic phenotype patients with heart failure and preserved ejection fraction.

Methods: We enrolled retrospectively 414 patients with HFpEF (70.03 ± 8.654 years, 58.70% female), including 203 (49.03%) type 2 diabetics. Diabetic HFpEF patients were stratified by baseline WATCH-DM risk score.

Results: Diabetic HFpEF patients exhibited a trend toward more concentric remodeling/hypertrophy than nondiabetic HFpEF patients. When analyzed as a continuous variable, per 1-point increase in the WATCH-DM risk score was associated with increased risks of all-cause death (HR 1.181), cardiovascular death (HR 1.239), any hospitalization (HR 1.082), and HF hospitalization (HR 1.097). The AUC for the WATCH-DM risk score in predicting incident cardiovascular death (0.7061, 95% CI 0.6329-0.7792) was higher than that of all-cause death, any hospitalization, or HF hospitalization.

Conclusions: As a high-risk phenotype for heart failure, diabetic HFpEF necessitates early risk stratification and specific treatment. To the best of our knowledge, the current study is the first to demonstrate that the WATCH-DM score predicts poor outcomes in diabetic HFpEF patients. Its convenience may allow for quick risk assessments in busy clinical settings.