Late recurrence of atrial fibrillation 5 years after catheter ablation: predictors and outcome

Aims: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a chronic progressive disease that continuously recurs even after successful AF catheter ablation (AFCA). We explored the mechanism of long-term recurrence by comparing patient characteristics and redo-ablation findings.

Methods and results: Among the 4248 patients who underwent a de novo AFCA and protocol-based rhythm follow-up at a single centre, we enrolled 1417 patients [71.7% male, aged 60.0 (52.0-67.0) years, 57.9% paroxysmal AF] who experienced clinical recurrences (CRs), and divided them according to the period of recurrence: within one year (n = 645), 1-2 years (n = 339), 2-5 years (n = 308), and after 5 years (CR>5 yr, n = 125). We also compared the redo-mapping and ablation outcomes of 198 patients. In patients with CR>5 yr, the proportion of paroxysmal AF was higher (P = 0.031); however, the left atrial (LA) volume (quantified by computed tomography, P = 0.003), LA voltage (P = 0.003), frequency of early recurrence (P < 0.001), and use of post-procedure anti-arrhythmic drugs (P < 0.001) were lower. A CR>5 yr was independently associated with a low LA volume [odds ratio (OR) 0.99 (0.98-1.00), P = 0.035], low LA voltage [OR 0.61 (0.38-0.94), P = 0.032], and lower early recurrence [OR 0.40 (0.23-0.67), P < 0.001]. Extra-pulmonary vein triggers during repeat procedures were significantly greater in patients with a CR>5 yr, despite no difference in the de novo protocol (P for trend 0.003). The rhythm outcomes of repeat ablation procedures did not differ according to the timing of the CR (log-rank P = 0.330).

Conclusions: Patients with a later CR exhibited a smaller LA volume, lower LA voltage, and higher extra-pulmonary vein triggers during the repeat procedure, suggesting AF progression.