Association of Incidentally Discovered Covert Cerebrovascular Disease Identified Using Natural Language Processing and Future Dementia

Background Covert cerebrovascular disease (CCD) has been shown to be associated with dementia in population-based studies with magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) screening, but dementia risk associated with incidentally discovered CCD is not known. Methods and Results Individuals aged ≥50 years enrolled in the Kaiser Permanente Southern California health system receiving head computed tomography (CT) or MRI for nonstroke indications from 2009 to 2019, without prior ischemic stroke/transient ischemic attack, dementia/Alzheimer disease, or visit reason/scan indication suggestive of cognitive decline or stroke were included. Natural language processing identified incidentally discovered covert brain infarction (id-CBI) and white matter disease (id-WMD) on the neuroimage report; white matter disease was characterized as mild, moderate, severe, or undetermined. We estimated risk of dementia associated with id-CBI and id-WMD. Among 241 050 qualified individuals, natural language processing identified 69 931 (29.0%) with id-WMD and 11 328 (4.7%) with id-CBI. Dementia incidence rates (per 1000 person-years) were 23.5 (95% CI, 22.9-24.0) for patients with id-WMD, 29.4 (95% CI, 27.9-31.0) with id-CBI, and 6.0 (95% CI, 5.8-6.2) without id-CCD. The association of id-WMD with future dementia was stronger in younger (aged <70 years) versus older (aged ≥70 years) patients and for CT- versus MRI-discovered lesions. For patients with versus without id-WMD on CT, the adjusted HR was 2.87 (95% CI, 2.58-3.19) for older and 1.87 (95% CI, 1.79-1.95) for younger patients. For patients with versus without id-WMD on MRI, the adjusted HR for dementia risk was 2.28 (95% CI, 1.99-2.62) for older and 1.48 (95% CI, 1.32-1.66) for younger patients. The adjusted HR for id-CBI was 2.02 (95% CI, 1.70-2.41) for older and 1.22 (95% CI, 1.15-1.30) for younger patients for either modality. Dementia risk was strongly correlated with id-WMD severity; adjusted HRs compared with patients who were negative for id-WMD by MRI ranged from 1.41 (95% CI, 1.25-1.60) for those with mild disease on MRI to 4.11 (95% CI, 3.58-4.72) for those with severe disease on CT. Conclusions Incidentally discovered CCD is common and associated with a high risk of dementia, representing an opportunity for prevention. The association is strengthened when discovered at younger age, by increasing id-WMD severity, and when id-WMD is detected by CT scan rather than MRI.